Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: DMK Landslide or AIADMK fightback?

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Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: DMK Landslide or AIADMK fightback?

26 Nov 2020
Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: DMK Landslide or AIADMK fightback?
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Crowdwisdom360
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Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: District Level Analysis, Crowdwisdom360 completed Tamil Nadu Opinion poll 2021 in Thoothukkudi district yesterday. As usual, we used what is called the wisdom of the crowd method (small samples). This survey is different from traditional surveys because we donot ask respondents who they vote. Instead respondents are chosen for their understanding of the political situation and can be anyone from the crowd - the wisdom of the crowd. A little analytics is used to remove bias. Here are the results of the Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021 in Thoothukkudi District

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: AIADMK defends well in Kancheepuram

Shozhinganallur, DMK ----> DMK

Sriperumbudur, AIADMK ---> AIADMK

Tambaram, DMK ---> DMK

Chengalapattu, DMK ---> DMK

Thiruporur, AIADMK ----> AIADMK

Cheyyur, DMK ----> DMK

Uthiramerur, DMK ---> DMK 

Summary

2016, AIADMK: 2, DMK+5

2021, AIADMK: 2, DMK+5

Total in 4 districts

2016, AIADMK+ 27, DMK+ 12

2021, AIADMK+ 9, DMK+ 27

 

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: Close Contest in Thoothukudi Disrict

Will be Retained by AIADMK - Vilathikulam, Srivaikuntam

Will be Retained by DMK - Thoothukudi

Shift from AIADMK to DMK - Ottapidaram, Kovilpatti

Shift from DMK to Tie - Tiruchendur

Summary

2016, AIADMK: 4, DMK+2

2021, AIADMK: 2, DMK+3

After poor performance in two districts, AIADMK seems to have improved its performance. In South TN which is not AIADMK's strong region, the party is givinga. tough fit to DMK and if lucky, the losses will be limited to 1 seat. It is possible that as number of COVID cases reduces and TN returns to normal, the anti-incumbency is falling. Early this month,CM E Palaniswami had seen a huge bump in approval ratings from 35% to 45%. While 45% is not a great rating, this will reduce the losses that we observed earlier. 

Coimbatore District

Remember, AIADMK won by a landslide in this district in 2016

Mettupalayam

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK (Close)

Avanashi

2016: AIADMK, 2021: AIADMK

Tirupur North

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK (Close)

Tirupur South

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK (Close)

Palladam

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK (Close)

Sulur

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Kavundampalayam

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Coimbatore (North)

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Coimbatore (South)

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Thondamuthur

2016: AIADMK, 2021: AIADMK

Singanallur

2016: DMK, 2021: DMK

Kinathukadavu

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK (Close)

Pollachi

2016: AIADMK, 2021: Too Close to Call

Valparai

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Udumalaipettai

2016: AIADMK, 2021: DMK

Madathukulam

2016: DMK, 2021: DMK

Tamil Nadu Opinion Poll 2021: Thiruvallur District Summary

 

Three major trends

1. AIADMK is performing better than Lok Sabha election

2. AIADMK is losing many seats won in the assembly election in 2016 (4 out of 7)

3. Unlike other state elections we completed, swing is not consistent across all the seats in the district. One hypothesis is that compared 2019, AIADMK was able to win seats that are on the outskirts of Chennai while continue to lose the ones outside Chennai. Whether this is a rural urban divide, difficult to say at the moment.

AIADMK was in pits during the Lok Sabha election in 2019 and had managed a recovery during the one year after that. Corona crisis has hurt TN pulling back the AIADMK quite a bit. CM E Palaniswamy rated just 48 in July 2020.

What this data suggests is that the AIADMK is most likely to lose power in 2021. If one were to project on the basis of a small swing of even 2%, DMK+ will end up with 130+ seats. However, if one were to project on the basis of seats gained, DMK+ will end up with 150+ seats. We will have a more precise answer once we complete more districts. 

One important point to note is that AIADMK as a much deeper base than DMK (read this analysis). So it has greater ability to bounce back than the DMK. That is one reason we keep seeing AIADMK keeps recovering everytime they are down. It remains to be seen if the AIADMK along with BJP can fashion such a recovery in the next 8 months.

Read below our Previous Analysis on this election (August 2nd week data)

M K Stalin’s DMK winning Tamil Nadu Election 2021?: The 234 seats of Tamil Nadu Legislative assembly will go on for polls in 2021. The 2021 Tamil Nadu election will be the first full state legislative election without Jayalalithaa and M. Karunanidhi. In 2016 Tamil Nadu election it was then AIADMK chief, J. Jayalalithaa’s magic that helped incumbent AIADMK government to return to power once again. However, this time the story is completely different. With no Jaya, AIADMK has been divided from the very first day. The Lok Sabha 2019 election result was a clear indication of AIADMK losing grip over the state.

Lok Sabha 2019 election was one of the biggest electoral shock for already divided AIADMK. In 2014, under leadership of Jayalalitaa, AIADMK won 37 of 39 Lok Sabha seats but in 5 years since 2014, AIADMK was reduced to only one seat, DMK on the other hand which failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat in 2018 won 38 seats with the help of its new ally, Congress. Since then AIADMK’s political journey in Tamil Nadu has been facing rugged road.

In run up for 2021 Tamil Nadu election, the state witnessed a much-delayed civic polls. After the Lok Sabha rout, none expected AIADMK to perform in the civic elections. However, the result of the Civic election gave a hope of revival of AIADMK in state. Though it won lesser number of seats than DMK, the party was able to make a comeback after Lok Sabha rout. The DMK and its allies won 243 District Panchayat wards and bagged 2099 seats in Panchayat Union wards while AIADMK won 214 District Panchayat wards and 1781 Panchayat Union seats. Though for the first time in Tamil Nadu politics an opposition party was ahead of ruling party in Civic election, but after Lok Sabha debacle AIADMK winning almost equal seat of DMK gave them a hope of revival in the state.

Some Facts about Tamil Nadu Election Results

- Since 1977, DMK has won more than 35% of the vote share just once, AIADMK has won it five times

- After 1996, AIADMK has increased its vote share in every single election. DMK on the other hand has not crossed 35% in a single election since 1996

- The last time DMK won a majority on its own was in 1996, AIADMK on the other hand has won a majority on its own 3 times out of the last 4 elections

- The DMK's weakness is mostly in Western TN (Kongu belt) and Central region where it won just 14 seats versus AIADMK which won 43 SeatsThis will be a key battle ground in 2021. There are 13 seats here which the AIADMK has won with less than 5% of the margin and 23 seats with less than 7.5% of the margin

- AIADMK had huge leads in urban seats, specifically semi-urban seats. In urban seats AIADMK led DMK 85 to 57 seats

- The other area of strength for AIADMK was women where it lead DMK by a wide margin of 11%. 

The ongoing Coronavirus crisis have helped AIADMK to improve its stature in the state initially. However the growing numbers in the state has led to a decrease in his popularity of Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. A recent poll by Ormax Media said that just 48% of respondents in Tamil Nadu approved of the job done by Mr. Palaniswami. This is one of the lowest in the country.

Chief Minister K Palaniswami has been trying to position himself as the son of the soil. He has successfully been able to douse the internal fights in his party along with it he has been able to place himself as an able administrator before the people of Tamil Nadu. However, the Coronavirus crisis may have given his government an added setback. The state is second most affected state after Maharastra in India and the cases are rising everyday. 

After the sweep in Lok Sabha election 2019, DMK has been on Cloud 9. However, one must not forget that along with Lok Sabha election, by-polls to 24 vacant assembly election was held. Out of 24, DMK had won 21 in last election and AIADMK could manage only 3. By-election was also considered as mini-assembly election battle. AIADMK won 13 of the 24 seats while DMK lost 10 seats from its previous tally and could manage only 11 seats. DMK knows that the Lok Sabha Election 2019 victory does not guarantee the victory for Assembly election. Thus, the party chief MK Stalin has roped in election strategist Prashant Kishore to help them win the Assembly election in 2021. The growing popularity of Chief Minister Palaniswami has become matter of concern for DMK. It must noted that DMK too is facing the internal fights. Roping in Prashant Kishore even after thundering victory in Lok Sabha election was clear indication of nervousness in the DMK camp.

The upcoming assembly election will be one of the most crucial one for both AIADMK and DMK. With new entries of Kamal Hassan and Rajnikant, the battle seems to be an interesting one. For the first time both AIADMK and DMK will be fighting without their party patriarch Jayalalitaa and M. Karunanidhi. The Tamil Nadu assembly election 2021 will give rise to a new leader who will write the future of Tamil Nadu.

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