Bihar Election 2020 Results: Counting Day Updates

Blogs

Bihar Election 2020 Results: Counting Day Updates

10 Nov 2020
Bihar Election 2020 Results: Counting Day Updates
profile_avatar
Crowdwisdom360
322225

6:45 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 121-114 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (121-114) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (121-114). Total 31.5 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

5:45 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 121-113 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (121-113) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (121-113). Total 27.7 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

5:00 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 125-108 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (132-100) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (126-107). Total 24.4 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

3:23 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 130-103 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (131-102) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (131-102). Total 17.8 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

2:33 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 128-104 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-99) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (129-102). Total 14.8 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

2:06 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 133-100 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-99) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (134-98). Total 13.3 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

1:52 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 130-102 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-102) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (128-104). Total 12.6 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

1:45 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 126-106 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (127-105) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (127-105). Total 12.2 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

1:28 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 126-107 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (126-107) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (127-106). Total 11.1 million votes counted of approximately 35 to 40 million votes

1:10 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 127-106 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (127-106) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (127-106). Total 10.5 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

12:50 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 127-104 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-103) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (128-103). Total 9 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

12:40 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 126-105 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-103) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (128-103). Total 8.3 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

12:30 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 124-105 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-103) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (127-103). Total 8 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

12:26 pm : EC is reporting all 243 seats now, NDA is ahead 126-102 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-101) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (129-100). Total 7.6 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

12:16 pm : EC is reporting 242 seats now, NDA is ahead 127-100 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-101) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (129-99).

12:07 pm : EC is reporting 242 seats now, NDA is ahead 128-99 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-100) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (130-100).

11:58 am: EC is reporting 242 seats now, NDA is ahead 130-99 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (131-99) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (131-99).

11:50 am : EC is reporting 242 seats now, NDA is ahead 131-98 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (133-96) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (133-97). Total 5.6 million votes counted of approximately 40 million votes

11:40 am : EC is reporting 238 seats now, NDA is ahead 125-102 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-99) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (132-99). Total 5 million votes counted, approximately 40 million votes

11:30 am : EC is reporting 237 seats now, NDA is ahead 121-104 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (130-102) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (130-102). Total 4.5 million votes counted, approximately 40 million votes

11:20 am : EC is reporting 231 seats now, NDA is ahead 119-101 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-103) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (129-103)

11:07 am : EC is reporting 226 seats now, NDA is ahead 118-97 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (131-95) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (128-99)

11:00 am : EC is reporting 225 seats now, NDA is ahead 118-95 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (131-95) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (130-98)

10:49 am : EC is reporting 219 seats now, NDA is ahead 115-93 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (128-97) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (125-101)

10:42 am : EC is reporting 211 seats now, NDA is ahead 111-89 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (127-98) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (125-101)

10:42 am: EC is reporting 207 seats now, NDA is ahead 107-88 at the moment. India Today says NDA is ahead (124-101) while NDTV says NDA is ahead (122-104)

10:35 am: EC is reporting 193 seats now, NDA is ahead 100-83 at the moment.  India Today says NDA is ahead (119-105) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (114-111)

10:30 am: EC is reporting 189 seats now, NDA is ahead 97-82 at the moment. India Today says MGB is ahead (112-110) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (114-110)

10:27 am: EC is reporting 170 seats now, NDA is ahead 84-79 at the moment. India Today says MGB is ahead (112-109) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (114-109)

10.22 am: EC is reporting 152 seats now, NDA is ahead 77-62 at the moment. India Today says MGB is ahead (113-107) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (118-106)

10.13 am: EC is reporting 133 seats now, NDA is ahed 61-55. India Today says MGB is ahead (112-105) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (113-111)

10.07 am: EC is reporting 112 seats now, NDA is ahead 61-56. India Today says MGB is ahead (110-103) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (114-110)

10.00 am: EC is reporting 112 seats now, NDA is ahead 56-50. India Today says MGB is ahead (114-99) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (115-109)

9.55 am: EC is reporting 99 seats now, NDA is ahead 49-44. India Today says MGB is ahead (116-94) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (114-110)

9.47 am: EC is reporting 46 seats now, NDA is ahead 37-29. India Today says MGB is ahead (113-93) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (113-112)

9.41 am: EC is reporting 46 seats now, NDA is ahead 37-23. India Today says MGB is ahead (112-84) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (116-111)

9.40 am: EC is reporting 46 seats now, NDA is ahead 32-22. India Today says MGB is ahead (112-84) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (116-111)

9.37 am: EC is reporting 46 seats now, NDA is ahead 27-18. India Today says MGB is ahead (106-79) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (119-108)

9.31 am: EC is reporting 43 seats now, NDA is ahead 24-18. India Today says MGB is ahead (104-76) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (117-104)

9.29 am: EC is reporting 33 seats now, NDA is ahead 18-14. India Today says MGB is ahead (101-72) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (111-103)

9.25 am: EC is reporting 28 seats now, NDA is ahead 17-10. India Today says MGB is ahead (90-68) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (104-101)

9.21 am: EC is reporting 20 seats now, NDA is ahead 15-9. India Today says MGB is ahead (86-68) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (101-99)

9.17 am: EC is reporting 20 seats now, NDA is ahead 11-7. India Today says MGB is ahead (82-66) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (103-96)

9.12 am: EC is reporting 17 seats now, NDA is ahead 11-4. India Today says MGB is way ahead (79-59) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (98-87)

9.08 am: EC is reporting 11 seats now, NDA is ahead 8-2. India Today says MGB is way ahead (79-59) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (98-87)

9.08 am: EC is reporting 5 seats now, BJP is leading in 2, Congress in 1, VIP in 1 and BSP in 1. India Today says MGB is way ahead (74-42) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (91-67)

9.00 am: EC is reporting 3 seats now, BJP is leading in 2, Congress in 1. India Today says MGB is way ahead (74-42) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (91-67)

8.55 am: EC data is from Darbhanga, BJP is ahead. BJP won this seat narrowly in 2015.  India Today says MGB is way ahead (67-36) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (84-62)

8.47 am: First EC data is from Darbhanga, BJP is ahead. BJP won this seat narrowly in 2015.  India Today says MGB is way ahead (55-24) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (72-59)

8.45 am: While we wait for EC data, India Today says MGB is way ahead (50-23) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (71-54)

8.40 am: While we wait for EC data, India Today says MGB is way ahead (47-24) while NDTV says MGB is ahead (57-49)

8.32 am: While we wait for EC data, India Today says MGB is way ahead (39-18) while NDTV says MGB is marginally ahead (43-38)

8.15 am: The Election Commission has not posted any updates yet though the channels have been posting Postal Ballot Updates. Nothing much to decipher at the moment. NDTV and India Today are reporting very different tallies at the moment. Better to wait until EC updates the data. 

 

Good Morning! We will be updating the Bihar Election Results here on the 10th of November 2020. Firstly, exit polls in general have been wrong when it comes to Bihar but over the last two elections, Axis has been extremely accurate. In fact their error rate is lower than 1%. This election however has far too many close fights so it is possibly there may be a slightly higher error rate. The range of forecasts for MGB vary from less than 100 to 180. Pro-BJP Pollster Chintamani and Dainik Bhaskar have both given MGB a tally below 100 seats. In case of Crowdwisdom360 which follows a different approach, we estimated 120 seats for MGB but after seeing the exit polls from other surveys increased the prediction to 140 seats. We did this because we had originally corrected for what we thought was pro-MGB bias in our sample. 

Today, we will be interested in two things

1. Total Seats Tally Update. Our Updates will start much later than National TV Channels as we only trust Election commission results only (proven for every election in last 3 years). Proper results start coming after 9.30 am and stabilise by 11 am to 1 pm depending on how close the contest is between the two alliances. 

2. We will be tracking 27 seats that will tell us which way the election is headed. They are classified as weak, medium and Strong. If the parties start to lose the Weak and Medium seats, the opposite alliance will do well. However, if some strong seats also trend poorly, it could be a landslide for the other side. The seats have been determined on the basis of last two election results. The 27 seats are as follows

JD(U) Seats

1. Sheohar - JD(U)  Weak

2. Bajpatti - JD(U)  Weak

3. Sultanganj - JD(U) Weak

4. Nathnagar - JD(U) Weak

5. Bibhutipur - JD(U) Medium

6. Kurtha - JD(U) Medium

7. Tarapur - JD(U) Medium

8. Jokihat - JD(U) Strong

9. Kalyanpur (SC) - JD(U) Strong

10. Khagaria - JD(U) Strong

BJP Seats

1. Madhubani - BJP Weak

2. Pranpur - BJP Weak

3. Hisua - BJP Weak

4. Parihar - BJP Weak

5. Purnia - BJP Medium

6. Bathnaha - BJP Medium

7. Forbesganj - BJP Medium

8. Motihari - BJP Strong

9. Ramnagar (SC) - BJP Strong

10. Gaya Town - BJP Strong

RJD Seats

1. Barhara - RJD Weak

2. Baniapur - RJD Weak

3. Alinagar - RJD Weak

4. Marhaura - RJD Weak

5. Madhepura - RJD Medium

6. Bisfi - RJD Medium

7. Ujiarpur - RJD Medium

Bihar Exit Polls 2020 had been released on Saturday. India's foremost pollster Axis is predicting a landslide for Tejashwi and his alliance is expected to win about 150 seats+_11 seats. The NDA is expected to win about 80 seats+_11 seats. In terms of vote share, the MGB alliance is winning a massive 44% vote share while NDA will win about 39% vote share. Tejashwi outperformed Nitish on CM preference by 5% points, 44% to 39%. If one was following our analysis 4 weeks ago, Tejashwi had outperformed Nitish for the first time on Google Trends.

India Today Aaj Tak Axis Poll

69-91 NDA

139-161 MGB

LJP 3-5

others 3-5 #IndiaTodayAxisPoll

While the NDA campaign had expected to struggle, this result would be a shock even to them. The JD(U) was expected to struggle after LJP had placed candidates against them in 140+ seats. However, should the NDA end up with 80 seats, even the BJP is unlikely to cross the 2015 figure. Since Crowdwisdom360 has been tracking seat level data from July onwards, we feel BJP's conversion will be atleast two times better than JD(U). One more thing, if you look at our seat level polls below, you will notice that many seats are too close to call. So even though the much respected Axis says it is 150 seats, we still would suggest not to rule out a counting day surprise where NDA does better than these polls. 

Axis Poll - Which issue mattered most?

Development - 42%

Unemployment - 30%

Inflation - 11%

PM Modi - 3%

Political Party - 3%

The Axis Poll is interesting in one way that most of our polls were throwing Unemployment and Corruption (local) as two major issues. In the Axis poll, development has emerged as a major issue suggesting that the slower economic growth in the last 5 years has slowed down the pace of development in the state. The unemployment rate state stood at about 12% during the 1st phase of polling which is reflected in the survey. When we read through the surveys, it is clear that most of the citizens were angry and wanted change. It needs to be seen if these numbers are shown on counting day

Today's Chanakya is back after a long time. They are projecting an even aggressive number for RJD and Congress at 180 seats. In this situation, Congress will win more seats than BJP, shocking if true. One thing is certain, Today's Chanakya and Axis together have never gone wrong in a poll. This could be the first but it has not happened before. Which means that it is more likely that Nitish Kumar is going end up with one of the worst results in the last 15 years. 

Coming to the caste equation, Compared to 2019 (Axis Poll), RJD+ increased share by 1

5% points amongst Muslims (Today's Chanakya)

by 13% points amongst Yadavs (TC)

by about 10% points amongst Non-Yadav OBCs (TC)

by 9% points amongst Upper Caste (TC)

by 7% points amongst Dalits (TC)

So, most of the gains have occurred in the core base. Also, our hypothesis is that the some core NDA voters may have stayed out of this election because they were unhappy with Nitish Kumar. 

How was the age wise swing for RJD+?

18-25 years, +15% points

26-35 years, +19% points

36-50 years, +13% points

51-60 years, +13% points

> 60 years, +11% points

Today's Chanakya

BJP – JDU+ 55 ± 11 Seats

RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats

Others 8 ± 4 Seats

JKB which is a pro-BJP pollster has also given MGB abotu 128 seats, a slim majority. These are conservative numbers but one should not dismiss any pollsters numbers in this environment

Republic Jan ki Baat

MGB - 118-138

NDA - 91-117

Chintamani Exit Poll

Dainik Bhaskar Poll

NDA: 120-127

MGB: 71-81

LJP: 12-23

Others: 19-27

 

CVoter

MGB - 120

NDA - 116

 

Shining India Exit Poll 

Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll for Seat Level Picture - Wisdom of Crowd Survey

Gaya District

In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 4

In 2020, it could end NDA-5, RJD+5

Banka District

In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 1

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 1

Patna District

It was 8-5 in favor of NDA in 2015, Patna District is likely to end 9-5 in favor of RJD+ in 2020

Nalanda District

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 1

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4

Paschim Champaran

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 2

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 6, RJD+ to win 3

Muzaffarpur

In 2015, NDA won 3, RJD+ won 6

In 2020, NDA 6, RJD+4

Samastipur

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 4

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 5, RJD+ to win 5, RJD+ could end up with more

Assuming RJD bias in our poll, NDA should end 4 seats and RJD+ with 6 seats

Araria

In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 2

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 1, RJD+ to win 5

Madhubani District

In 2015, it was RJD+ 5, NDA 4 and Others 1

In 2010, it looks like 5-5 for both the alliances but quite volatile

Siwan District

In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 3

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4

Vaishali District

2015, NDA - 3, RJD+ 4

2020, NDA- 1, RJD+ 6

Darbhanga District

2015, NDA - 6, RJD+ 4

2020, NDA- 4, RJD+ 6

12 Districts

2015, NDA - 60, RJD+ 41

2020, NDA- 47, RJD+ 58

Extrapolating to all Seats, 

2015, NDA - 125, RJD+ 110

2020, NDA- 91 (Original was 105), RJD+ 144 (Updated after other exit polls were released, original was 120)

Shashi Singh Phase 1 Update

@Morewithshashi

NDA- 27 ± 04

UPA- 43 ± 04

LJP- 02 ± 01

BSP- 01 ± 01

IND- 01 ± 01

Shashi Singh Phase 2 Update

NDA- 34 Confirmed, 22 Close

UPA- 27 Confirmed, 26 Close seats

LJP - 4

IND- 5

Shashi Singh Phase 3 Update

NDA- 22 Confirmed, 32 Close

UPA- 19 Confirmed, 37 Close seats

LJP: 3

Others: 2

Phase 1+2+3

NDA - 83 Confirmed + 55(Close Contest)

UPA- 89 Confirmed + 63 (Close Contest)

LJP: 9

Others: 8

 

Upasana Singh - BJP Seat Predictions Only

She Predicts BJP will win 55 to 65 seats in Bihar, may be more if some close seats go in their favour. Here is her seat by seat analysis

 

Analysis of Bias in Exit Polls carried out in the last one year

We have taken exit polls of assembly elections in the last 12 months and bias towards NDA/BJP

Axis has a negative bias towards BJP of -6.5%. What this means is, BJP/NDA scores 6.5% more than what Axis Predicts. On the other extreme, Ipsos over predicts BJP/NDA seat forecast by 121%. Both Jan ki Baat and CVoter also have delivered forecasts that favour the BJP but not in line with results. 

 

Let us now look at the track record of Exit Poll companies in the last few elections in Bihar

Here is a rating of Exit Polling Companies  in the last two assembly elections and Lok Sabh elections (2010, 2014, 2015, 2019) in Bihar

Bihar Exit Polls 2020: Summary for last 4 elections

2010 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Elections Exit Polls

In the 2010 election, the results were as follows

NDA: 206 seats

RJD+: 25 Seats

CSDS was closest to the mark with 193 seats for NDA. 

1. IBN Week CSDS : 193 seats for NDA

Star Nielsen: 148 for NDA

Sadhana CVoter: 147 for NDA

 

2014 Bihar Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls

In the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, the results were as follows

NDA: 31

JD(U): 2

RJD+: 7

Some exit polls were accurate

1. India TV Cvoter: 29 seats for NDA

TimesNow ORG: 28 seats for NDA

ABP Nielsen: 28 seats for NDA

NDTV Hansa: 22 seats for NDA

IBN CSDS: 24 seats for NDA

Headlines Today Cicero: 20 seats for NDA 

The most accurate ocurate exit pollster was CVoter and Today's Chanakya (We are unable to trace their Bihar election and our estimate of accuracy for Today's Chankya in 2014 is based purely on memory)

 

2015 Vidhan Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls

In the 2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar, the results were as follows

MGB Alliance: 178 Seats

NDA Alliance: 58 Seats

Only one Exit poll got it right

1. IBN Axis: 176 seats for MGB

ABP Nielsen: 130 seats for MGB

India Today Cicero: 117 seats for MGB

NDTV Hansa: 110 seats for MGB

India TV TimesNow CVoter: 122 seats for MGB

News 24: Today's Chanakya: 83 seats for MGB

 

2019 Lok Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the results were as follows

NDA: 39 Seats

UPA: 1 Seat

Exit Polls were quite accurate

1. India Today Axis MyIndia: 39 seats for NDA

TimesNow VMR: 30 seats for NDA

ABP Nielsen: 35 seats for NDA

Republic TV CVoter: 33 seats for NDA

Republic TV Jan Ki Baat: 30 seats for NDA

Newsnation:  30 seats for NDA

Chintamani 5 Dots: 32 seats for NDA

In sum, Exit Polls have been more accurate predicting Lok Sabha elections than Assembly elections. However, even in Exit Polls, atleast one pollster has come close to the result. Axis so far has the best track record across all pollsters.

Rewards
Redeemable coins
0

Redeem Coins
$ 5 or equivalent
20000 coins
My Profile
Purchase History
No purchase history available
OK
Wallet History
Available Coins

4050

You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
- 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
Notifications
Redeem Coins
Redeemable Coins Available
0
Note : Only Coins which you earn
can be redeemed. Purchased or
Bonus Coins cannot be
redeemed.

Coins will be redeemed in 2
working days
Redeem History
Redeemable Coins Available

0500

Redeemed Points
600
01 August
05:00 PM
Redeemed Points
600
01 August
05:00 PM