BJP's vote share gains were quite low after Babri Destruction

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BJP's vote share gains were quite low after Babri Destruction

07 Oct 2020
BJP's vote share gains were quite low after Babri Destruction
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Crowdwisdom360
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What was the vote share increase of the BJP after the Babri Demolition? (Assembly Elections)

Big Gains

Gujarat: 26.7% to 42.5%

Karnataka: 4.1% to 17 %

Rajasthan: 25.3% to 38.6%

Marginal Gains

Assam: 6.6% to 10.4%

Andhra: 1.8% to 3.9%

Bihar: 11.6% to 13 %

Kerala: 4.8% to 5.5%

 

Maharashtra: 10.7% to 12.8%

Odisha: 3.6% to 7.9%

Uttar Pradesh: 31.5% to 33.3%

Losses in Vote Share

Haryana: 9.4% to 8.9%

Bengal: 11.3% to 6.4%

Madhya Pradesh: 39.1% to 38.8%

Tamil Nadu: 1.7% to 1.8%

As can be seen, except for three States the Gain for the BJP was minimal. Even in those 3 States, one could say the gains may have been due to local efforts rather than just the demolition. 

So can we say, there was no impact at all of the Ayodhya dispute?

Not true. The movement in its political form started a few years before.

The BJP's national vote share moved from 11.4% in 1989 to 20.1% in 1991. In between was the Rath Yatra by Advani in 1990. In fact, it was the Rath Yatra that delivered significant votes for the BJP

Question is, did someone lose because of the Babri Masjid Demolition?

Let us look at Congress party vote shares now

Big Losses

Haryana: 33.7% to 20.8%

Andhra: 47.1% to 33.9%

Tamil Nadu: 15.2% to 5.6%

Karnataka: 43.8% to 27 %

Bihar: 24.8% to 16.3 %

Maharashtra: 38.2% to 31%


Marginal Losses

Kerala: 32.1% to 30.4%

Uttar Pradesh: 17.3% to 15.1%

 

Marginal Gains

Gujarat: 30.7% to 32.9%

Assam: 29.4% to 30.6%

Big Gains in Vote Share

Bengal: 35.1% to 39.5%

Madhya Pradesh: 33.4% to 40.7%

Rajasthan: 33.6% to 38.3%

Odisha: 29.8% to 39.1%

Except for one or two States, the overlap is quite limited. This indicates that both major parties were losing and gaining share from regional parties rather than from each other. That said, the Congress losses were quite severe and it was finished in both Bihar and UP. The gainers intriguingly were the regional parties, BJP only to a limited extent.

It is fair to say that if one were to rank major events impact on BJP Vote share

1. Rath Yatra, Modi Waves would be ranked 1st

2. The Janata Merger performance of 1977 would be second

3. Formation of NDA alliance would be 3rd

Babri masjid would be lower down the order

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