Gold Predictions until end of 2021 | Gold Rate Prediction: International Spot Gold closed below the $ 1800 level for the first time since early July to close at $ 1790.7 on Friday evening (Rs 46701 per 10 gms). In India, MCX Gold closed 0.9% lower at Rs 48106 on Friday evening. Gold price in India has breached the Rs 48280 support level indicated by some analysts.This the lowest level in the last 6 months
(India prices are 2.5-3% higher than International spot prices. While this page is updated daily, it is updated faster if there are volatile movements in Gold Prices. If you are in a rush, look for Long Term and Short Term Gold Price Predictions in the middle of this page)
Macro: The Dollar also closed lower at 91.78 on Friday evening, these are levels last seen in early 2018. This follows worse than expected jobless claims in the US (owing to rising COVID cases) as well as Fed minutes that suggest that a stimulus will be necessary. However, US stocks reached new highs on Friday. Interestingly, Gold mining stock prices have not fallen at the same pace as Gold prices on Friday. Separately, the bitcoin momentum has also slowed down over the last 3 days.
Gold Demand: A new ICRA report says that Gold Demand will declined this year by 35% but will pick up in the second half of this financial year in India. India's Gold Imports which had fallen 47% in the period April to October recovered a bit in the month of October 2020. Gold Imports were up 36% over October 2019. That said, Gold ETFs are beginning to leak according to this report.
Gold Price Prediction India: 10 Gold Price Predictions
Gold Prices are reported on a per 10 gm basis for 24 carat Gold.
2. Westpac Australia is predicting Gold at below $ 1760 (Rs 45900 per 10gms) for 2021 (25 Nov)
3. Citibank has predicted $ 2500 (Rs 65211 per 10gm) for Gold in 2021, read this analysis (25 Nov)
4. Bank of America has revised downwards its prediction for Gold and is now predicting Gold at $ 2063 (Rs 53696 per 10gm) by the end of 2021 (22nd Nov)
5. Macquarie says that the cyclical bull market has come to an end and the bank expects Gold to fall to $ 1550 (Rs 40344 per 10gm) next year (21st Nov)
6. Motley Fool Canada argues that one must reduce exposure to Gold and it is likely to head lower over the next one year. (18 Nov)
8. Motilal Oswal has a forecast of Rs 67000 in the next 12 months (November 12, 2020).
9. According to investing.com, Banks have forecasted an average of $ 2013 for 2021 or Rs 52679 per 10 grams (November)
10. ANZ Bank has put out forecasts as follows (assuming current INR USD exchange rate) - Rs 56907 by December 2020, Rs 59494 by March 2021 and Rs 49147 by end of 2021. Updated ANZ Forecasts claiming Gold will soar to $ 2300 early next year (Rs 59965 per 10gms)
Latest Gold Price Chart from MCX
On the Friday, Gold stayed fell by 0.8% on the MCX and is now at 6 monthly lows
Gold Mining Stocks
The biggest Gold Mining Stocks mostly traded negative on Friday but haven't fallen as much as gold prices
Newmont Corporation closed up 1.2% on Friday after trading up on Wednesday as well (Did not trade on Thursday)
Barrick Gold Corporation closed down 0.2% on Friday after having traded lower on Wednesday as well (Warren Buffet owns stock but has pared ownership recently). (Closed for trading on Thursday)
Anglogold Ashanti closed lower at 1.6% on the JSE on Friday.
Kinross Gold closed lower at 0.1 % on Friday. (Closed for trading on Thursday)
Gold Prediction India: Other Observations
An analyst who had been predicting Gold above $ 2000 by end of the year now says it will end below $ 1900 by end of 2020
One analyst argued today that the long term fundamentals are still in place irrespective of the how pandemic and new US administration plays out.
Chris Vermuelen who had earlier predicted Gold at $ 2300 by year end (Rs 59900 per 10 gms) and said that Gold is in a 8 year long term Bull Cycle now says that Gold could fall all the way to $1600 if it breaches $1800. Should it hold on above $ 1800, Gold could go back up in the next few months.
Gold is unlikely to cross $ 1964 before the year end according to this analysis.
An analyst from Well Fargo is less optimistic of $ 2000 this year but believes there is underlying strength and could hit $2300 next year.
Gold Price Prediction 2021: What are the positive and negative factors influencing the precious metal at the moment?
1. Dollar Strength: Stronger dollar usually means weaker Gold. Economic Reports are due in first week of October
2. COVID vaccine announcement: Gold is likely to face pressure once the Vaccine is announced. A Vaccine is likely to be announced in late October or early November
3. US Political Uncertainty is Positive for Gold.
4. Indian economic recovery. Faster the recovery, less positive for Gold
5. Central bank actions on Interest rates, lower interest rate outlook usually leads to an increase in Gold prices
Read this thorough analysis about the relationship between Fed balance sheet and Gold Prices
Watch this space for more updates on Gold Price Forecast.
Crowdwisdom360 is a portal for predictions. However, this predictions are a summary of those available on the internet. We donot make any recommendations of our own. Please carry out your own research before making any investments.