Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: LDF keeps nose ahead for 2021

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Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: LDF keeps nose ahead for 2021

05 Oct 2020
Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: LDF keeps nose ahead for 2021
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Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: LDF keeps nose ahead in two districts with few losses. The 2021 Kerala assembly polls are some 8-9 months away. Crowdwisdom360 in its usual wisdom of the crowd approach (Small samples) carried out an opinion poll in Kannur district of Kerala. Today we present the seat predictions for that district

Payyannur

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Kalliasseri

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Taliparamba

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Irikkur

2016: UDF, 2021: UDF

Azhikode

2016: UDF, 2021: UDF

Kannur

2016: LDF, 2021: UDF (Switching)

Dharmadam

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Thalassery

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Kuthuparamba

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF, closely fought

Mattannur

2016: LDF, 2021: LDF

Peravoor

2016: UDF, 2021: UDF

 

Kannur Summary

2016: UDF: 3, LDF: 8

2021, UDF:4, LDF: 7

Two Districts Summary

2016: UDF: 4, LDF: 16

2021, UDF:7, LDF: 12

So who will win the Kerala Election 2021?

The data is clear

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is in trouble but UDF isn't gaining enough to win 2021. 

  1. A previous large survey by Asianet Cfore gave LDF 42% of the vote or about 1.5% negative swing versus 2016. According to Cfore Most of the gains are going to BJP. The BJP will gain both upper caste and SC vote from both parties
  2. If one looks at our surveys - With Kuttanad going to UDF and Kayamkulam doubtful, one could conservatively place the swing towards UDF from LDF to be at least 1.5%. This would take the total loss for LDF to about 2.5% with UDF gaining 1.5%. This translates to UDF at 67 seats, not enough to form the next Government

In sum, while LDF is losing momentum and UDF is gaining , UDF gains are not enough to form the next Government. Should elections be held now, LDF will just scrape through and return to power again. One should recall that even in 2011 UDF won the election quite narrowly. The LDF base is wider and steadier.

Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: UDF gaining in Alappuzha District

Left Democratic Front LDF retains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election

  1. Cherthala is expected to be comfortably retained by the LDF. This seat was won by the LDF comfortably in 2011, marginally in 2016 and comfortably during the Lok Sabha Election 2019
  2. Ambalapuzha is expected to be comfortably retained by the LDF. This seat was won by the LDF comfortably in 2011 and 2016 and lost marginally during the Lok Sabha Election 2019
  3. Mavelikara is expected to be comfortably retained by the LDF. This seat was won by the LDF comfortably in 2016 and marginally in 2011 and lost marginally during the Lok Sabha Election 2019
  4. Chengannur is expected to be comfortably retained by the LDF. This seat was won by the LDF marginally in 2016 with a 10% margin in 2011 and lost during the Lok Sabha Election 2019

Left Democratic Front LDF retains with some fight vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election

  1. Alappuzha is expected to be retained with some fight by LDF. This seat was won by the LDF comfortably in 2016 and 2011 and lost marginally during the Lok Sabha Election 2019. Finance Minister Thomas Isaac won this seat in 2016.

United Democratic Front UDF gains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election

  1. Aroor: Aroor was a strong seat for the LDF until the Lok Sabha election in 2019.

AM Ariff the sitting MLA lost the Aroor Assembly segment to Shanimol Usman in the Lok Sabha election. While Mr. Ariff managed to win the Lok Sabha seat, Shanimol Usman went on to beat Manu C. Pulickal of the CPI (M) by a margin of 2,079 votes in a by poll. The Congress led united democratic front is likely to retain the seat. However, compared to the election, this is a switch from LDF to UDF

Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: UDF gaining in Alappuzha District

2 Kuttanad: This seat was won by NCP's Thomas Chandy (who supported the LDF) until his death last year. The by elections were due early this year but postponed on account of COVID. The Congress led UDF won this segment during the Lok Sabha election 2019. This seat is likely to switch from LDF to UDF

United Democratic Front UDF retains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election

1 Haripad: One of the senior most congress leaders Ramesh Chennithala has won this seat both times in 2011 and 2016. The party also won this segment in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Ramesh Chennithala is also a potential CM candidate. The Congress party will retain this seat very comfortably

Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: UDF gaining in Alappuzha District

Too Close to Call

1 Kayamkulam: Kayamkulam is a good indicator of the levels of swing in a Kerala election. In 2011, the LDF won the seat by less than 1% of the vote. In 2016, it won the seat by nearly 7% of the vote. It managed to win the segment during the Lok Sabha election in 2019. However, at the moment, our predictors are unable to determine who will win this election.

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