West Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP progresses in South Bengal

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West Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP progresses in South Bengal

21 Nov 2020
West Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP progresses in South Bengal
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Bengal Opinion Poll 2021: The Bengal Elections 2021 are scheduled in May 2021. Crowdwisdom360 carries out small polls on the ground to get a feel of who is leading and who is losing in each of the districts. We also keep adding any polls that are being done by other companies as well. 

The Bengal Elections will be one of the biggest trophies for the BJP. The BJP which owes some of its origins to Bengal has never been in power in Bengal since independence. However, a strong BJP brand centrally, a fast growing worker base on the ground are all helping BJP mount a massive challenge against Mamata Banerjee. 

The Crowdwisdom360 surveys are small sample surveys carried our regularly. In Bihar, our seat level accuracy was about 70%

BJP is looking comfortable in Bengal because of clarity in their pitch to voters

- Poor Governance

- Minority Appeasement

Voters find this very credible because of Amphan, COVID and Mamata's approach towards minorities since before the 2016 election.

Mamata on the other hand has been unable to push through a single positive message. When we asked voters why someone should vote for Mamata, voters were unable to articulate a good reason. This lack of simple and credible messaging can turn off many voters who will decide during the last few days of the election. This is perhaps the biggest challenge for Mamata going forward. 

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021: Mamata Banerjee's ratings

She is currently rated at 48% in an Ormax survey completed in the end of October. A score below 50% is risky though Nitish had much lower scores and still managed to get re-elected on account caste combinations

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP Trinamool Congress 4-4 in North 24 Parganas

Where is TMC Polling well?

¬Baduria – Won by Congress in 2016 with 50.6% vote share, the sitting MLA has defected to TMC, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Swarupnagar – Won by TMC in 2016 with 49.1% vote share, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Deganga – Won by TMC in 2016 with 51.3% vote share, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Haroa – Won by TMC in 2016 with 57.1% vote share, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Minakhan – Won by TMC in 2016 with 56.9% vote share, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Sandeshkhali – Won by TMC in 2016 with 52.3% vote share, predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

¬Basirhat North – Won by CPM in 2016 , predicted to be comfortably won by TMC in 2021

Where is BJP Polling well?

¬Bongaon Uttar – Won by TMC in 2016 with 51.2% vote share, the sitting MLA had defected to the BJP in 2019. This is predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

¬Bongaon South – Won by TMC in 2016 with 49.6% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

¬Basirhat South – Won by TMC in 2016 with 41% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

¬Barasat – Won by TMC in 2016 with 49.3% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

¬Bidhannagar – Won by TMC in 2016 with 43.8% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

¬Dum Dum – Won by TMC in 2016 with 47.7% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021

 

Other Seats

¬Bagdah was won by Congress in 2016 with 50%vote share, the sitting MLA defected to the BJP in 2019. This seat is predicted to be won by TMC in 2021 (Narrowly)

¬Ashoknagar – Won by TMC in 2016 with 50.4%, predicted to be won by TMC in 2021

¬Gaighata – Won by TMC in 2016 with 49% vote share, predicted to be won BJP in 2021

¬Habra – Won by TMC in 2016 with 54.9% vote share, Predicted to be won by BJP in 2021 (Narrowly)

¬Hingalganj – Won by TMC in 2016 with 53.6% vote share, Predicted to be won by BJP in 2021 (Narrowly)

¬Rajarhat Gopalpur– Won by TMC in 2016 with 45.3% vote share, Predicted to be won by BJP in 2021 (Narrowly)

 


Overall Tally: Dakshin Dinajpur, Birbhum, Kolkata District and North-24 Parganas

2016, BJP: 0, TMC: 38

2021, BJP: 25, TMC: 19


 

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021: Major Issues according to voters in North-24 Parganas District?

1. Unemployment (10% in November 2020 according to CMIE)

2. Corruption - Cut money being the most popular point of discussion but also other forms of corruption

2. Development

3. Governance

 

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP Trinamool Congress 4-4 in Kolkata District

Where is TMC Polling well?

¬Entally – Won by TMC in 2016 with 52.8% vote share, predicted to be won by TMC in 2021, Sudip Bandyopadhyay won this segment quite comfortably in 2019 with more than 50% of the vote

¬Ballygunge – Won by TMC in 2016 with 46.6% vote share, predicted to be won by TMC in 2020. TMC won this segment quite comfortably in 2019 with more than 50% of the vote

¬Rashbehari – Won by TMC in 2016 with 45.4% vote share, predicted to be won by TMC in 2021. BJP was ahead in the 2019 election but appears to have lost momentum now. One reason is that the TMC has been trying to poach opposition party members in this seat. The CPI(M) had performed relatively better on this seat winning more than 10% of the vote

Where is BJP Polling well?

¬Jorasanko – Won by TMC in 2016 with 43.8% vote share, predicted to be won by BJP in 2021. BJP led TMC in this segment in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. It needs to be seen if BJP will once again field Rahul Sinha for this seat

¬Maniktala – Won by TMC in 2016 with 51.7%, leaning BJP in 2021. TMC scraped through this segment in 2019. However, Amphan had much more on an impact here prompting the TMC MLA Sadhan Pande to criticise the TMC controlled Kolkata Municipal Corporation. TMC may still win this one but uphill battle ahead. 

Other Seats

¬Kolkata Port Won by TMC in 2016 with 54.1% vote share, Predicted to be won by TMC in 2021, TMC won this segment quite comfortably in 2019. This does not get classified as a solid win because of how Amphan was handled here

¬Shyampukur – Won by TMC in 2016 with 46.9% vote share, Predicted to be won by BJP in 2021, BJP won this segment narrowly in 2019. 

¬Chowringhee – Won by TMC in 2016 with 48.2% vote share, leaning BJP in 2021. This was a segment that was quite comfortably won by TMC in 2019. However, the tide appears to be turning against TMC particularly amongst the large hindi speaking population in the constituency. 

 

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021: Major Issues according to voters in Kolkata District?

1. Unemployment (10% in November 2020 according to CMIE)

2. Inflation (10.9% in October 2020 according to CSO)

3. Law and Order - Linked to youth clubs and syndicates as well as periodic clashes with BJP on the ground.

4. Corruption - Cut money being the most popular point of discussion but also other forms of corruption

5. Income - While Bengal economy has been performing well, COVID handling and slowdown after that has hurt the state quite a bit

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP Trinamool Congress 3-3 in Dakshin Dinajpur

We completed our second opinion poll in Bengal this season. Using our usual wisdom of the crowd approach (small sample), we have attempted to determine the likely winners in the election in 2021. The participants are not the average voter but people who are a little passionate about politics and are usually located in that region, we use analytics to reduce bias. Here are seat by seat predictions for Dakshin Dinajpur District

Kushmandi

2016: Left, 2021: TMC

Kumarganj

2016: TMC, 2021: TMC

Balurghat

2016: Left, 2021: BJP

Tapan

2016: TMC, 2021: BJP

Gangarampur

2016: INC, 2021: BJP

Harirampur

2016: Left, 2021: TMC

Dakshin Dinajpur Summary

2016, Left: 4, TMC: 2

2021, BJP: 3, TMC: 3

Dakshin Dinajpur plus Birbhum

2016, BJP: 0, TMC: 11

2021, BJP: 11, TMC: 6

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP likely to dominate Birbhum District (Data has some BJP bias)

The Bengal opinion poll in Birbhum was carried out between 26th and 27th of August 2020. Here is the seat by seat prediction (Data has some BJP bias)

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, BJP makes big gains in North Bengal

Versus 2016, TMC is seeing a loss of 6 seats out of 9 seats it won. In Bengal, TMC won 211 seats in the 2016 assembly election.

Versus 2019 Lok Sabha, TMC is seeing a loss of 3 segments out of 6 it won. TMC won 164 assembly segments in 2019

With these kinds of losses and correcting for BJP losses due to absence of Modi on the ticket, TMC could still end up with less than 100 seats in the assembly election. That said, please wait for future updates as we analyse a few other districts across the state.

Is Mamata headed for defeat?

The answer is YES for the moment. 

1. Unlike other state elections, BJP does not appear to be underperforming significantly versus Lok Sabha elections

2. Dissatisfaction with Mamata/TMC appears to have increased.

3. An approval rating of 48% could translate to about 37-40% the vote, enough to move a lot of seats to the BJP over 2019.

Overall, Mamata and TMC are in trouble. Perhaps this explains the restructuring and turmoil within the party

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, BJP makes big gains in North Bengal

How this plays out over the year, time will tell. We hope to update more districts in the near future.

BJP makes huge gains in N. Bengal

Uttar Banga Sambad Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, Source: Uttar Banga Sambad appears to have completed an Opinion Poll in North Bengal for the 2021 assembly elections. Overall, it is clear BJP is making huge strides in bengal sustaining and even expanding over the 2019 lok sabha polls. There is strong anti-incumbency against the Mamata Government as can be seen in the latest Best Chief Minister in India surveys

Koch Bihar District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Mekliganj, Mathabhanga, Tufanganj, Cooch Behar Uttar

TMC retains

Sitai, Dinhata

Too Close

Cooch Behar Dakshin, Sitalkuchi, Natabari

Koch Bihar Summary

2016, TMC-8, BJP-0

2021, TMC-2, BJP-4

 

Read about why Mamata Banerjee could lose the 2021 West bengal assembly election

 

Uttar Dinajpur District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Karandighi, Hemtabad

TMC retains

Chopra, Goalpokhar

Too Close

Islampur, Kaliaganj, Raiganj, Itahar

Uttar Dinajpur Summary

2016, TMC-4, BJP-0

2021, TMC-2, BJP-2

Read about why Mamata will win 2021 election

Jalpaiguri (and Alipurduar) District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Kumargram, Kalchini, Alipurduar, Madarihat, Dhupguri, Dabgram-Fulbari, Nagrakata, Mal

TMC retains

Falakata, Maynaguri, Rajganj

Jalpaiguri Summary

2016, TMC-10, BJP-1

2021, TMC-3, BJP-8

Darjeeling Plains

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Matigara-Naxalbari, Phansidewa

2016, TMC-0, BJP-0

2021, TMC-0, BJP-2

Malda District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Habibpur, Gazole, Manikchak, Malda, English Bazaar

2016, TMC-0, BJP-1

2021, TMC-0, BJP-6

Total Seats Covered by Uttar Banga Sambad- 51 Seats

BJP-23, TMC-10, Left Front/INC-9, Too Close: 9

Overall, BJP is making huge gains in North Bengal assembly polls leaving Trinamool and the Left front behind. While 9 seats are being considered as too close, past history shows that such seats usually go to the winner. If that happens, BJP is likely to end up with 30 out of the 51 seats.

In the 2019 lok Sabha elections all the Lok Sabha seats in this district. Overall BJP won 18 out of the 42 lok sabha seats in the state. While the 2019 result could be attributed to Narendra Modi, the opinion poll results show a much serious anti-incumbency in the state. In our opinion poll in Birbhum which is just adjoining North Bengal, Trinamool was losing 6 out of 9 seats it held in 2016 (see below). Not only that, it was losing even compared to the 2019 election

The Bengal election 2021 is going to challenge both Mamata Banerjee and Prashant Kishor as the BJP machine appears ready to steamroll Mamata. A landslide is not far away

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