The folks at fivethirtyeight wrote a long winded article on why polls could be wrong again. Separately, the Trafalgar group has now suddenly become more reliable to the right wing because they got 2016 right. The fact is, it appears that fivethirtyeight is preparing us for surprises in the 2020 election while the Trafalgar group thinks one swallow makes a summer. The reality is partisan pollsters like Trafalgar and a few of them even here in India will always get it right when the party they support does well in the election. So Trafalgar may get it right again if Trump wins but that won't make them more reliable as one should test their performance when the opposition does well.
The fact of the matter is that there is only ONE pollster on the planet which is really good and by my personal experience, the best in the world, the AxismyIndia polling company. Let me explain why by showing you the results of a few polls
Look at this exit poll from the Chhattisgarh election in 2018
While Axis missed the result by 8 seats, the next placed pollster missed this by 18 seats.
Here is another one, this time from Maharashtra
While Axis missed the result by 19 seats, the next placed pollster missed this by 33 seats.
In two elections in Bihar, Axis has an error of < 1%.
We can go on and on, poll after poll from January 2015,with rare exceptions of Karnataka in 2018 and couple of elections in 2016, Axis would be at the top always. No other pollster anywhere in the world has got this kind of track record. Yes, the pooled exit poll in the UK has been equally accurate but they don't deal with 10% growth in voting population between elections.
The feudal pressures in rural India, rampant population growth at polling booth level, ethical issues with data collection plus personal biases all make polling a nightmare in India. To deliver at this level of accuracy consistently in such an hostile enviroment is truly remarkable
Whether Axis can continue delivering at this level only time will tell. But what they have accomplished is truly remarkable. If all Indian companies were able to deliver at this level of world class quality, India would truly claim the 21st century as its own.