2020 election polls that are predicting a Trump win (Updated)

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2020 election polls that are predicting a Trump win (Updated)

14 Nov 2020
2020 election polls that are predicting a Trump win (Updated)
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A month ago, scepticism drove us to track Trump Favorable polls separately. Seems to be a good call now. Some of the content was written a month ago when we were speculating if Polls could go wrong again but most of the Polls are updated as of 3rd November. Thank you for visiting us! (November 3rd)


Read our latest article on all the legal cases filed by President Trump and the GOP. It is likely that President Trump will concede by the 30th of November assuming that the Georgia recount keeps the tallies as they are at the moment. Wisconsin is one state that could flip back to Trump if the courts invalidate some votes. 


So how did the polls do?

- Most Polls including the Pro-Trump polls under-estimated how well Trump would perform in Florida. The closest however was Trafalgar Group

- Michigan, No Poll got it right

- Wisconsin, No Poll got it right

- North Carolina, Ipsos and Morning Consult were the closest

- Pennsylvania, Poll that came closest was Swayable

We await final results for Penn and Arizona

2020 Election polls that are predicting a Trump win: The 2020 Presidential election has entered the final week of the campaign with Joe Biden ahead in the national polls by 6-7 percentage points. In 2016, most state polls got the election wrong and it is possible they will make the same mistake again. It is no surprise that former President Barack Obama implored voters to go out and vote as he warned that the election is quite close

Therefore, we track polls in battleground states that are predicting a Trump win.


Read this: 5 Reasons why Donald Trump will win the 2020 election

Read this: 11 Predictions that say Donald Trump will win the 2020 election


Breaking (1st November): The Democracy Institute released a poll today predicting a landslide for Donald Trump

Breaking (27th October): Realcelarpolitics has officially switched Florida from Democrat to Republican

Breaking (27th October): An Emerson poll has found that Independents are breaking 47 to 41 in favor of President Trump. If true, Trump is all set to be re-elected

Florida

Florida is perhaps the swingiest of the swing states. The state has 29 electoral votes.

In the last 6 elections, whoever has won the state became president. In 1992, Bill Clinton lost Florida but was elected president on the back of his performance across the country

2016, Last 7 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in 2, Clinton in 2

2020, Last 7 polls before election day, Trump is ahead in 3, Biden in 4

Trump is doing better in Florida than the other states, he could still win this one

Michigan

Michigan has 16 electoral votes. Should Biden win both Michigan and Pennsylvania, he will need to just swing (compared to 2016) one of Arizona or Wisconsin to win the 2020 election

2016, Last 5 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in 1, Clinton in 4

2020, Last 5 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in 1, Biden in 4

Contrary to polls, numerous top ranking democrats acknowledge that the election in Michigan is dead even. Latest data shows, Mail in Ballots unlikely to give Democrats any advantage

This is another state where President Trump could be said to still have a chance irrespective of what the polls are saying

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania as always will be an extremely important state in the election cycle. It has 20 electoral college votes.

2016, Last 6 polls before election day, Trump was ahead 1, tied in another

2020, Last 6 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in 3, Biden in 3

In 2016, Trump Polled 41.6% in the last 5 polls published at this point in time of the election, he is polling 3.4% higher this year. Biden is polling just 2% higher than Clinton. 

It does appear that Biden may be in a better position than Hillary Clinton but the margin is not unsurmountable

Arizona

Arizona has 11 electoral votes and one of 5-6 states that Trump must retain to continue as the President of the United States.

2016, Last 4 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in all 4

2020, Last 4 polls before election day, Biden is ahead in 3, One is Tied

In the last one month, two polls, one by ABC News Washington post and the other by data for progress show President Trump ahead. A poll by Susquehanna shows that both candidates are tied. In 2016, they were just 3 polls during this period. One showed Trump ahead, one showed Clinton ahead and a third one showed both were tied.However, most polls in 2016 here were predicting a Trump win. In 2020, Joe Biden leads both the polling average and most of the polls. 

This looks like a difficult state for President Trump

North Carolina

North Carolina has 15 electoral votes.

2016, Last 6 polls before election day, Trump was ahead in 2, one was tied

2020, Last 6 polls before election day, Trump is ahead in 3, one is tied

At least 4 polls (in the last month) are predicting a Trump win with 3 others showing a tie between the two candidates. This is very similar to 2016. Trump eventually won the state comfortably

Updated on 16th October: A new Emerson Poll shows Trump and Biden are tied at 49-49

This state looks good for Trump in 2020

Read our coverage of the betting and prediction markets for the 2020 elections


Wisconsin

Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes.

2016, Last 4 polls before election day, Clinton was comfortably ahead in all 4

2020, Last 4 polls before election day, Biden is ahead in all 4

In the last month none of the polls are showing a Donald Trump win. The good news for Donald Trump is that none of the polls in 2016 showed Donald Trump winning the state either.

The polls could be wrong again and Trump could win this one.

- The Latest Rasmussen National Poll Gives Donald a narrow lead over Joe Biden in the popular vote

Trafalgar Poll's Robert Cahaly believes Trump will return as President. Trafalgar was quite accurate in 2016

Donald Trump is making progress with Black and Hispanic voters according to this new analysis by FiveThirtyEight

Read this detailed analysis on why recent polls on Trump's chances are incorrect

The Federalist analysis suggests that Trump is doing as well or as better than 2016 and he could still win the election- Voter registration could be a huge advantage for Donald Trump, White non-college voters who typically have voted for Trump seem to be registering much more than 2016

Raghavan Mayur, TIPP President, who predicted both the 2016 and 2012 election accurately believes that the election is too close to call and that Pennsylvania will determine the eventual winner

A new poll by the Democracy Institute shows Donald Trump winning the electoral college. An interview with the Polling Director

When compared with the polls of 2016, President Trump's biggest risks are in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The President looks comfortable in North Carolina, Arizona and Florida. It is likely that President Trump will spend more time in these 3 states going forward.

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