GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP Create History in Hyderabad?

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GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP Create History in Hyderabad?

28 Nov 2020
GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP Create History in Hyderabad?
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GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll Survey and Analysis : The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election has been scheduled on December 1st, 2020. In one of the most closely contested elections in recent times in Telangana, the BJP has brought out all its big guns to try becoming a significant challenger to KCR. 

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27 th November: Estimates from survey done by @srinivamotte13 

TRS: 37%

BJP: 32%

INC: 11%

MIM: 13%

Others: 3%

Undecided/ Unwilling to Share: 4%

 

24 th November: Estimates from survey done by @srinivamotte13 @PramanyaSTRTGY (Pramanya Strategy Consulting):

TRS: 36%

BJP: 29%

INC: 11%

MIM: 15%

Others: 4%

Undecided/ Unwilling to Share: 5%

 

19th November: Estimates from survey done by @srinivamotte13 @PramanyaSTRTGY (Pramanya Strategy Consulting):

TRS: 37%

BJP: 30%

INC: 17%

MIM: 12%

Others: 4%

Predicted Seats Share for GHMC 2020 Election Using Crowdwisdom360 Prediction Market

TRS: 60+

BJP: < 40 Seats

 

BJP Leaning Pollster - Savyasachi

TRS-50-60

BJP-42-50

AIMIM-35-43

OTHERS -INC-6-13


21st November 2020 Opinion Poll Survey Update: A Crowdwisdom360 survey of Hyderabad found the following to be the top issues in the forthcoming GHMC Election (Ranked)

- Roads

- Drainage

- Development

- Water

- Traffic

- Corruption

Top Issues as listed by Times of India Survey

- Water and Drainage

- Public Transport

- Roads and Traffic

- Pollution levels

- Parks, Lung spaces and Lakes

- Cleanliness

- Heritage and Building Norms
 


GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll Analysis: Updates (Full analysis below these updates)

Voting Turnout in past elections in Hyderabad

Thanks to the turmoil & panic caused by COVID-19 and the economic devastation it has left in it’s wake, the Telangana SEC & political parties are concerned whether the turnout for the election will be high or not. Many old & middle aged people living in Hyderabad may or may not vote at all especially the urban middle class, those people who have lost their jobs and gone back to their hometown in telangana or AP may not bother to vote. Senior citizens, handicapped persons and mothers carrying newborn children or infants to polling stations can exercise their franchise in GHMC elections by directly entering into polling stations without waiting in queues.

The State Election Commission (SEC) has already announced the poll timings from 7 am to 6 pm and has permitted the voters above 80 years and physically challenged to utilise their franchise through postal ballot. Special safety measures like hourly sanitisation of the polling booths, wearing masks and hand gloves has been made mandatory for all the voters. The wards which witnessed the lowest voting in 2016 were Vijayanagar Colony at 33.98% & Mehdipatnam at 34.28%.The wards which witnessed the highest voting were Erragadda at 59.19% & Ramachandrapuram at 58.3%

MANIFESTO PROMISES

Highlights of the BJP Manifesto

- Free COVID vaccine and testing

- Free Water

- Free Power

- Free Tablet PCs

- Free Travel for Women Commuters in Metro and City buses

- Direct Assistance of Rs 25000 to those who have been affected by floods

Click here  for more details

The TDP also released it’s manifesto a few days ago. It was released by Telangana TDP chief L Ramana at NTR Bhavan. Highlights

- Cooking gas through pipelines to every household.

-Constructing cement and/or tar roads in every slum & basti

- Mobile hospitals for every ward /division

- Improving drainage system and restoring sewage lines.

The 16 page TRS manifesto was released on 23rd by the Telangana CM KCR to gain an advantage over the opposition. Some of it’s promises were

  • Free drinking water supply up to 20000 litres to houses in GHMC limits
  • Motor vehicle tax of 267 crores for 3lakh vehicles would be waived
  • Free power to barber shops, saloons,dhobi ghats & laundries
  • Metro rail & mmts expansion to help consumers.
  • Minimum power demand bill charges of HD and LT categories of industries, cinema theatres and commercial firms will also be waived for the six month period of lockdown.

KCR also announced many sops & incentives towards the Tollywood film industry which resulted in many Tollywood producers & stars like Mahesh Babu,Akkineni Nagarjuna & Chiranjeevi expressing their gratitude towards him on twitter.

The Congress manifesto was released on 24th by the entire Congress leadership with the slogan ‘We did it…We can do it again’ taking credit for past development of the city. The chairman of the manifesto committee was marri shashidhar reddy,ex minister.

Some of its unique promises are:-

  • Free drinking water supply up to 30000litres to every house within GHMC limits
  • Pomises to provide free power up to 100 units to all the consumers
  • An assurance to provide Rs 25 lakhs ex-gratia to the kin of those died in the recent floods. Rupes 2.5 to 5 lakhs for houses damaged in floods
  • Scrapping the Dharani portal,BRS & LRS system which have been introduced by the government of Telangana
  • Bringing Aarogyasri to cover COVID-19 as well.

KTR questions the economic performance of BJP while interacting with businessmen & industrialists

Netas place their wives & relatives to contest from seats reserved for women (75/150 seats in ghmc are reserved for women). Male spouses handle all campaigning work, women contestants turned to dummys?

TDP only contesting in segments where it has men & material available

Left parties contesting in only industrial areas & zones

Bandi Sanjay attacks KCR & Telangana DGP accusing them of creating fear among voters.

RWAs release their report cards & hand over wish lists to major political parties

BJP President Bandi Sanjay spoke of a surgical strike against Rohingy ,Pakistani & afghan illegal immigrants in Hyderabad & to weed them out & deport them & harshly criticized the performance of the TRS

Smriti Irani accused TRS & MIM of putting the names of illegal immigrants on electoral voter lists

Amit Shah,JP Nadda, Yogi Adityanath are some BJP leaders who are expected to campaign in the city & take part in rallies cum roadshows.

Tejaswi Surya, the Firebrand MP from Bengaluru and BJYM morcha head campaigned in Hyderabad for 2 days & addressed BJP workers & youth at Osmania University . He further said Hyderabad would first be saffronised & then the whole of south india will follow.

KTR insists that TRS will win on its own with a ‘respectable number’

Raja Singh offered Pork Biryani to Asaduddin Owaisi after he offered beef biryani to bjp leaders visiting Hyderabad

Andhra origin voters are being wooed both by TRS & BJP

TRS leaders forced to leave colonies after facing fury of flood victims

K Swamy Goud, former legislative council speaker & TRS leader joins BJP in the presence of JP Nadda. He played a very active role in the Telangana agitation and was head of the Telangana Non Gazetted Officers Association. He was said to be unhappy with the way he was being treated by the party & especially KTR.

Akbaruddin Owaisi challenges KTR to demolish samadhis of NTR & PVNR which lie besides hussain sagar. He further criticised the trs for not building enough 2bhk homes.

KTR responded by condemning his remarks & called them inappropriate & in bad taste, he further invoked their past contributions for the telugu people calling them unparalled.

BJP is working on a twin strategy of emotions - TRS-MIM linkage and Renaming Hyderabad while also attacking on practical issues - Traffic, 2BHK etc

Compared to 2016, fewer Candidates are contesting in this election indicating high level of polarisation of votes for the leading parties

KTR focusses on IT,development,jobs & communal harmony

Massive infighting in congress, top leaders & local leaders are involved in internicie quarelling over candidates

Lack of good roads,low number of 2 BHK houses & poor drainage facilities is a negative point for TRS , MLA forced to give written undertaking to win votes after facing ire of residents.. saying no roads,no votes

TRS works on persuading & re-assuring rebels, ministers have been dispatched to visit homes of rebels

Prakash Javadekar lambasts TRS government, releases chargesheet stating 60 failures, calls election a choice betwen BJP or MIM

Congress now losing leaders to MIM, 2 ex corporators have already defected. More to join?

MIM attacks TRS. Ploy to ensure anti MIM votes are divided?

(21st Nov) Sarve Satyanarayana ,ex INC MP from Malkajgiri has joined the BJP today. He had been suspended from the INC after the 2018 assembly elections. Other leaders from the Congress who have already joined the BJP are Bhikshapathi yadav & his son who have good influence in Serilingampally constituency wards, Banda Karthika reddy, the ex mayor of Hyderabad.

Another senior Congress leader Koppula Narsimha Reddy, a close confidant of PCC working president and Malkajgiri MP A Revanth Reddy, also resigned from the party and joined the BJP before the GHMC election campaign started & Kasam Ram Reddy, who is thegeneral secretary of Ranga Reddy District Congress Committee has also followed suit.The BJP is expected to keep inducting INC leaders till 1st December. It has already inducted TRS corporators who have not been given tickets to contest the election.

It is known that the BJP is making efforts to win over Konda Vishweshwar Reddy,ex MP from Chevella & Vijayashanthi.

Jana Sena has dropped out of the GHMC elections after a meeting between Jana Sena and BJP

Two Congress leaders joined the BJP ahead of the GHMC elections

MIM will contest about 60 seats

TDP has released its first list for the GHMC elections

The State election commission has asked the Government to stop flood relief

KTR has reeled out list of achievements and claims party will win big & that TRS will win 10 seats even from the old city. Portrayed the election as a choice between Local ‘galli’ and ‘Delhi’ parties.

BJP has promised to compensate for the damage incurred by the people during the rains. If somebody has lost their house, we will give them a house. They also promised to ensure that the flood victims get Rs 20,000 as financial assistance.

BJP President Bandi Sanjay calls KCR a pakka deshdrohi. Accuses him of appeasing MIM & having links with terrorists

BJP will waive of traffic fines if they win the GHMC election

TRS has released its first list of candidates for the GHMC election

The Congress party has released its first list of Candidates for the election

The BJP has deployed Bhupendra Yadav as incharge for the GHMC election. He recently crafted a successful campaign in Bihar

BJP has released its first list of candidates

GHMC Elections 2020: Who is in power and what were the results of the previous election?

 

 

Except the MIM,  the opposition was hit for a six out of the ball park by the TRS, much of the credit for this fantastic victory went to then Municipal Administration & Urban development Minister & the CM’s son K.T. Rama Rao.

The TRS won support from all sections of societies including muslims & voters of Andhra origin to achieve this fabulous victory.

 

A graph to show how the TRS expanded it’s vote base from 2014 & cannibalised votes from other parties

The TRS promptly choose it’s own corporators as mayor & deputy mayor.

The current mayor of the city is Bonthu Rammohan & the Deputy Mayor is Baba Fasiuddin both of whom belong to the TRS. The GHMC elections are expected to happen anytime next year after Sankranti i.e. January 15th , According to the GHMC Act, the polling process should be completed three months before the term of the current council ends, which is on February 10, 2021.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, TRS performance poorly, here are the vote shares

TRS - 31.5%

AIMIM - 13.2%

INC - 25.5%

BJP - 27.4%

As per the GHMC Act, the general public can directly elect 150 corporators who along with 64 ex-officio members(MPs, MLAs ,MLCs etc) can then elect the Mayor and Deputy Mayor for the City.

GHMC Elections 2020: Demographic Mix and Reservations

As per the terms of the GHMC Act, half the wards in the corporation are reserved for women(75) ,the post of the mayor’s office too has been reserved for women this time. Wards are reserved for BCs,SCs & STs as per their numbers in the city.

The ST population is only 1.33% as such they get only 2 seats and SC population is 6.6% due to which they get 10 seat only in GHMC, 34% of seats are reserved for the BC communities.

[BC means Backward classes, what is BC in AP & Telangana is OBC in National lexicon]

As per the census of 2011, the city’s religious demographics are:

Hindus 64.93%,

Muslims 30.13%,

Christians 2.75%,

Jains 0.29%,

Sikhs 0.25%,

Buddhists 0.04%

and remaining others.

There are no provisions for reservation of seats based on religious lines.

Hyderabad is a large city, it no longer refers only to the urban old city of the Nizam. But also to the middle class dominated Secunderabad & Cyberabad which is the economic engine & IT Hub of the city. Mylardevpalli ward has maximum voters numbering 79,290 while Ramachandrapuram has minimal number of voters with 27,997. Bansilalpet has the highest number of female voters while Fatenagar has the highest number of transgender voters. It also includes some rural areas in Patancheru & Malkajgiri assembly constituencies which are urbanizing quickly. 

GHMC Election 2020: How are various parties placed in the 2020 election?

1) TRS:-

The ambassador car is without doubt the clear favourite to triumph in the poll, the TRS dominates the assembly, has the largest pantheon of leaders ,appeals to all communities & castes. The party won 15 MLAs within GHMC limits which became 16 after the lone INC MLA defected to it.

But it’s failure to win Secunderabad & Malkajgiri lok sabha seats in 2019 was a sign for it to stay on it’s toes & not take voters for granted. K.T.R. ,who is already a minister & a powerful leader in his own way has already been given charge of the campaign to win the GHMC again by his father. He is working on ground to ensure defections from workers & leaders of all parties to the TRS & chalking up strategies for every locality & scenario & has already unofficially decided which candidates are to be fielded from which wards. The TRS is working towards winning 100 seats again in the GHMC polls. TRS has already announced cut in property taxes

The TRS will aim towards deflating the opposition’s morale after it’s shocking defeat in Dubbaka which was once considered a TRS stronghold. The TRS will remind people of the importance of having a double engine government & the progress & development the city has seen under their administration. And mention the welfare schemes which have made the TRS very popular in the eyes of the poor & underprivileged

So far, the state government has also disbursed Rs 470 crore out of the budgeted Rs 550 crore to 4.75 lakh families earmarked to assist people distressed by recent heavy rains and flooding of houses in Hyderabad last month by doling out Rs 10,000 cash relief for rain-affected families in Hyderabad.

The government would provide assistance of ₹1 lakh each to houses which were fully damaged and ₹50,000 each to those which suffered partial damages.

The biggest problems for the TRS are too many aspirants for each & every seat as they have taken in leaders from all parties & anti-incumbency+ the lack of jobs for youth. The poor handling of the Hyderabad floods which engulfed the city & ruined infrastructure & roads will definitely be raised.

The big leaders TRS is counting upon to win are of course KTR himself who everyone sees as his father’s heir, ministers Talasani Srinivas Yadav & Sabitha Indra Reddy, deputy speaker & long time TRS leader Padma Rao Goud.

2) BJP

BJP is doing everything it can to portray itself as the next big thing in Telangana after winning 4 lok sabha seats. They won Secunderabad Lok Sabha seat in 2019 despite holding on to only one seat in the 2018 assembly polls.

It is aiming to attract leaders from all parties & reaching out to all communities to expand it’s influence & outreach in Hyderabad. Its victory in Dubbaka has boosted it’s morale sky high & made it attractive to all dissidents in TRS & unhappy leaders in the Congress. It is expected to raise up the failures of the TRS & remind voters of past promises & claims of turning Hyderabad into Dallas & Istanbul & compare it to the handling of the recent floods. It plans to release 151 manifestos, one for every ward & for Hyderabad as a whole.

If it does succeed to put up a good performance here & come second in a no. of wards, this could help it go a long way. But if it fails to perform well, the winds powering  the sails could disappear. This could also hurt Bandi Sanjay who is the MP from Karimnagar who has proved his worth by winning Dubbaka & has no interest in losing his sheen any moment soon or halting his march.

The leaders it will be counting upon are Kishen Reddy-the MoS for Home & Secunderabad MP, Bandi Sanjay who is the the head of the Telangana BJP unit,ex MLC N Ramachander Rao & the lone MLA from Hyderabad, Raja Singh. It will also count on the support of Jana Sena Party to get votes from the fans of Pawan Kalyan & voters from the Kapu caste.

Just like Dubbaka, we may say BJP cadre come in from all over Telangana to Hyderabad to work for the BJP & leaders from other parts of India to come & campaign here.

3) MIM

There are 45 seats in the old city of Hyderabad which is the ‘adda’ of MIM top to bottom. MIM won 43 seats in 2009, 44 in 2016 & is expected to win 40+ again as of now.

There is literally no proper opposition to MIM in most of the old city. The MBT, INC & BJP can be expected to put up fights in some wards but whether it can materialise to victory or not is something which can’t be determined now.

The MIM is already an ally of the TRS despite indulging in a ‘friendly fight’ with each other in the GHMC election & if needed will ally with the TRS to keep control over the GHMC if the TRS can’t muster a majority on it’s own.

What will be interesting to watch is how many votes the MIM can win from non-muslims & how many segments it can win or improve its performance in and outside the old city part of Hyderabad. The MIM has a good base in Jubilee Hills,Secunderabad and Rajendranagar assembly constituencies where it secured above 10% of votes (25% in Jubilee hills in 14,10% in Secunderabad in 2014 & 18% in Rajendranagar in 2018). The MIM cadre and corporators will be counting upon the Owaisi brothers to lead the fight.

4) Indian National Congress Telangana INC unit is beleaguered with loss after loss & plunging morale due continuous defeats and numerous defections of many MLAs & leaders to the TRS. It is no surprise that so many see the end of it after the Dubbaka by polls where the BJP emerged victorious over the TRS. It had only 1 MLA within the GHMC limits who went over to join the TRS after the elections were over. The local unit somehow succeeded in winning 3 Lok sabha seats in Telangana in 2019

TG congress still has some cadre left & strong charismatic leaders throughout Telangana. The biggest problems are total lack of unity & poor leadership which has been plaguing it even before it’s disastrous performance in the 2018 assembly elections. Add to that the structure and organisation of the party has become weak in Hyderabad especially in Secunderabad & Hyderabad Lok sabha segments where it registered a very poor performance in both the assembly & lok sabha elections

This is perhaps the last chance for the party to show it is still number 2 in Telangana & hope to outdo the BJP even if it can’t defeat the TRS otherwise what happened in Odisha could happen here too. It has decided to field BCs on half the seats (75/150) in the GHMC to make inroads among BC voters & mollify the concerns of BC leaders & cadre. BCs are more than 50% of Telangana. And like the BJP is expected to rake up the failures of the TRS & question what the Union Government has done for the city.

It will count upon its firebrand MP from Malkajgiri Revanth Reddy & ex MPs Anjan Kumar Yadav & Konda Vishweshwar Reddy to play an important role here along with many MLA contestants .

5)OTHERS

The Telugu Desam Party is no longer what it is, it has been reduced to a shadow of its former self in Hyderabad and Telangana thanks to lack of leadership after bifurcation and continuous defections of it’s leaders, cadre and voters to the TRS and INC. The TDP  is more focused on happenings in Andhra Pradesh as of now and the Tirupati Lok sabha Bypoll. He is not expected to campaign here.The TDP is expected to contest the election and maybe be in competition in a couple of wards. But except Nandamuri Suhasini, no other TDP leader of note may campaign here.

Pawan Kalyan the leader of the Jana Sena has already expressed his intention to contest in the GHMC polls, whether they will do so in alliance with the BJP or not is not sure.The Left parties (CPI,CPM) have decided to contest together to keep their presence alive among the labour centric pockets of the city and Kodandaram’s TJS too has decided to contest.

Don’t be surprised if you see any last minute alliances or understandings reached between 2 or more of any opposition parties in an effort to increase their voteshares or number of wards.

Above all, people must not forget this is a local body poll. Voters are more likely to vote for a candidate rather than a party at such lower levels

About GHMC and Past Elections: GHMC is the civic corporation body that is responsible for overseeing the metropolitian city of Hyderabad, the capital of the state of Telangana. It is one of the largest municipal corporations in India with a population of more than 60 lakhs people and an area of 650 km² & as of the year 2019 it had a financial budget of 5380 crores.

Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation or GHMC for short was formed from the erstwhile Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad. Several Municipalities and Panchayats from Ranga Reddy, Nalgonda and Medak district were also merged and are now part of the GHMC. GHMC has divisions on the basis of Zones, Circles and Wards. There are 5 zones, 18 Circles and 150 Wards under GHMC.

 

The first GHMC elections were held in November, 2009.

 

Many today might find this hard to believe but the situation of the TRS in 2009 was so bad that it didn’t contest the elections out of fear of losing deposits & being humiliated.

The Congress & the MIM came together to govern Hyderabad together with both sharing the post of Mayor & Deputy Mayor for an equal period of time till the next election.

The 150 wards of GHMC are spread across 24 assembly constituencies & 5 Lok Sabha seats

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