GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP beat TRS in Hyderabad?

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GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP beat TRS in Hyderabad?

01 Dec 2020
GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll: Will BJP beat TRS in Hyderabad?
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GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll Survey and Analysis : The Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election is scheduled today on December 1st, 2020. In one of the most closely contested elections in recent times in Telangana, the BJP has brought out all its big guns to try becoming a significant challenger to KCR. This article covers all aspects of the election in great detail - Seat estimates, vote estimates, campaign strategy, candidate details, historic data and such

Google Trends Update for last 24 hours (6.10 pm)

BJP vs TRS vs INC vs MIM

Last 4 hours, 62 vs 22 vs 9 vs 7

2019 election, 55 vs 21 vs 23 vs 1


27 th November: Vote Share Estimates from survey done by @srinivamotte13 

TRS: 37%

BJP: 32%

INC: 11%

MIM: 13%

Others: 3%

Undecided/ Unwilling to Share: 4%

BJP Leaning Pollster Savyasachi's Seat Estimate

 

TRS-50-60

BJP-42-50

AIMIM-35-43

OTHERS -INC-6-13

Final Seat Prediction by Gamers on Crowdwisdom360

TRS to win > 60 seats = 69% 

BJP > 40 seats = 44%

BJP to win 20 to 40 seats = 38%

TRS to win 41 to 60 Seats = 38%

BJP < 20 seats = 25%

TRS < 41 Seats = 6%


21st November 2020 Opinion Poll Survey Update: A Crowdwisdom360 survey of Hyderabad found the following to be the top issues in the forthcoming GHMC Election (Ranked)

- Roads

- Drainage

- Development

- Water

- Traffic

- Corruption

Top Issues as listed by Times of India Survey

- Water and Drainage

- Public Transport

- Roads and Traffic

- Pollution levels

- Parks, Lung spaces and Lakes

- Cleanliness

- Heritage and Building Norms

GHMC Elections 2020 Opinion Poll Analysis: Updates (Full analysis below these updates)

1st December Update

Bookies and punters give hairline edge to TRS

Polling percentage up to 3.96% by 9AM & 8.90% by 11AM. Polling will go on till 6PM

BJP cadre stop minister's convoy accusing him of influencing voters

Repolling in 69 polling centres in old Malakpet ward to happen tomorrow after misprint of election symbol & discrepancy in ballot paper. Due to this no exit poll will be published in Hyderbad till polling 6PM tomorrow.

30th November Update: Yesterday was the last day of campaigning for the GHMC elections 2020-21. Voting will commence on December 1st. All voting will be done through Paper ballot, the previous GHMC elections of 2009 & 2016 were conducted through EVM.

As per the Indian express, the TRS internal survey gives the party 80-85 wards,this means that AIMIM would retain its 44 seats and the rest (about 20 to 25 seats) would go to BJP. The AIMIM itself is hoping to better its performance and take its tally close to 50 seats.

The TRS came 2nd in about 33 out of 44 seats the MIM won in 2016, today many of the wards in and near the old city (or patta basti) are witnessing a 3 sided fight with the BJP rising in prominence especially among the BCs of Telangana and North Indian migrants, many of these voters are shifting from the TRS & Congress (2018 assembly) to BJP today.

As mentioned before, voter mobilisation & booth management is the key focus on election day. Money distribution will also play a critical role tonight. Already there are reports of money being distributed in many places of Hyderabad especially to lower income voters to secure their loyalty.

Many internal polls on Social media are showing an increased upswing in the BJP vote share. One must not forget that the TRS has many silent voters especially among old people or ex TDP voters who shifted allegiance to TRS.TRS can expect to do well among minorities in the 99 segments the MIM isn't contesting in.The results of this election will have an impact on the upcoming MLC polls & the results of these two will together change the political landscape of telangana for a long time to come.

This plan is the reason a BJP president has come to campaign in a municipal election for the first timeAmit Shah promises to turn Hyderabad into a mini-India & remove Nizami/nawabi culture from the city after his roadshow yesterday.

Cases filed against both Bandi sanjay & Akbaruddin owaisi over their incitery rhetoric. TRS BJP cadre clash display the intensity of the fight

BJP MLA accuses TRS of distributing money, criticizes the SEC, bjp workers stage protest demanding action against those distributing money

29th November Update: Today is the last day of campaigning for the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections in Hyderabad and what an exciting last few days it has been!

Everyone expected the polls to be held something during Sankranti, it came as a shock to the opposition when the Telangana State Election Commission gave the notification for it to be held on December 1st ,barely 20 days after Dubbaka by election results came out. Then the intensity of the campaign slowly arose when BJP smelt blood and brought out all its leaders to Hyderabad.

GHMC Election 2020: TRS Campaign Summary

The TRS juggernaut has won nearly every single election after winning the 2014 assembly election. And even today the odds are in its favour to win this one. The TRS cannot be accused of taking this election lightly or being over-confident after dubbaka by polls.

The ambition of the TRS is to win 100 seats this time and portray itself as the undisputed master of Telangana.

Unlike the BJP which showcased its large range of leaders from all over telangana in the city,the TRS has only one public face –KT Rama Rao, even the CM KCR has only taken part in one rally where he gave a speech.

KTR has been taking part in road shows, interviewed with journalists, lead the candidate selection & campaign tactics. His roadshows have received a good response to him, he has not only emphasized on the work the party has done till now but also on the future of Hyderabad . He has asked voters to choose between divisive & decisive forces & has portrayed the TRS as the party of good governance, safety, security & prosperity & contrasted it with the Hindutva tone coming out of the bjp.

The party has also made attempts to win voters from Muslims & voters of Andhra origin with KTR saying that BJP is only a Delhi party which discriminates against telugu states and has only given mud and water to Amaravati

But he is not the only one working. TRS has left no stone unturned to win over votes like every election.

Almost every TRS Minister,MLA,MLC & MP has been assigned to work in the Hyderabad polls in one way or the other. They have been assigned one or more than one division to bolster cadre morale & win the support of their communities. KCR himself is going to supervise booth management on election day

TRS has also worked very hard to persuade PSU & bank union voters to vote for them. Hyderabad is home to many PSUs, defence establishments,Headquarters of the South Central Railways & central institutions whose employees primarily reside in Secunderabad and Malkajgiri lok sabha seats.

To fight BJP in Hyderabad, TRS leaders have been highlighting disinvestment in LIC, Indian Railways and privatisation in the power sector & other such PSUS as key poll planks to win over the votes of union employees

TRS is also highlighting the new pension scheme introduced by Delhi and it’s deficiencies to further consolidate it’s support among the older employees

The newspapers Namaste Telangana(A telugu daily) & Telangana Today are being distributed free of cost to many homes all over Hyderabad for the past few days, a fact to which even the author of this article can attest is true.Both these papers are owned by the CM & his family members.

2 silent workers have been his sister Kavitha who has been meeting many community associations & groups and Talasani Srinivas yadav who has taken part in rallies, gone to the bastis & is working hard to get the BC vote out for TRS with the other BC ministers of the party.

But anti-incumbency against many corporators & MLAs is hurting TRS heavily. Many leaders were forced to leave colonies after locals protested against them. The anger of the residents at the Hyderabad floods & the way it was handled has not died down , many hyderabadis did not receive the promised 10,000 rupees flood relief yet.

KCR in his speech yesterday called for hyderabadis to vote for progressive forces to ensure the city’s prosperity making appeals in 3 languages emphasized on his manifest promises to the city’s denizens and took jibes at Yogi adityanath & the Union government over their performance and help they gave to Hyderabad in the past.

The fight has become 2 sided on the Social Media front between BJP & TRS. Whatsapp, twitter, facebook all of them are full of ads,memes & videos put out by both sides targeting the other side & promoting themselves.

GHMC Election 2020: BJP Campaign Summary

The BJP for most of the campaign took control of the narrative from the TRS & for once the TRS was unable to craft & work around a narrative of its own.

MIM bashing ,rohingyas in Hyderabad ,surgical strike, CAB-NAC, NTR memorial, PVNR Samadhi . Bandi sanjay has been at the forefront of all this.

They have worked on trying to ensure defections of leaders & notables from TRS & Congress, they got leaders from all over India to campaign for a crucial municipal election. Today Amit shah is visiting Hyderabad and will take part in a roadshow cum rally, a rare event for a senior national BJP leader.

The BJP has succeeded in giving a very tough fight to the TRS in most of the city especially the Secunderabad LS segments using a twin strategy of Hindutva cum nationalism & highlighting local issues & grievances.. They have also tried to take credit for the welfare schemes of the TRS by highlighting the central contribution to them. 

It has aggressively taken on the TRS on all social media networks too. The party has vociferously criticized the MIM & the owaisi brothers & spoken out against the ‘arrogance’ of the TRS government & KCR’s family.

These efforts have lead them to take most of the anti-incumbency against the TRS government & MIM corporators. Whether this will translate to votes or not is yet to be seen, but it is undeniable that the BJP will definitely enter double digits & every opinion poll I have seen gives it 25%+ in VS at the very least. Some have even gone up to 40%.

GHMC Election 2020: MIM Campaign Summary

The MIM is contesting only in 51 segments compared to 60 it contested last time.

But the MIM has a very solid ground connect & cadre base in those 51 constituencies, in most of them it is expected to cross 50% of all polled votes on it’s own. Anti MIM voter is divided between the TRS,BJP,INC & MBT in many of the old city constituencies.

 The TRS has been claiming to make inroads in the old city, there are 7 constituencies where the MIM won by margins less than 1000 last time. KTR claimed in a meet the press program that the TRS will won more than 10 seats which were MIMs.

The MIM may have friendly relations with the trs but that hasn’t stopped them from attacking the government or the TRS

The MIM’s focus is to maximize their number of corporators within that 51 . Regardless of result,its vote share will be between 12-16%

GHMC Election 2020: Congress Campaign Summary

The Congress has run a very muted & weak campaign, the party has been on the downslide in Hyderabad since 2014 & is not expected to do well this time.There are some areas in Hyderabad which have seen BJP,INC & even TDP cadre coming to campaign but no INC van let alone cadre have been seen.

 It has wisely decided to focus only a select number of constituencies & not all 150 to show that it has still has a good vote share & increase its number of wards.

It is counting heavily upon it’s MP Revanth Reddy to do well in the 48 wards of Malkajgiri LS & ex MP Konda Vishweshwar Reddy in the 24 wards of Chevella LS and has put up a brave face against the defections of congress leaders to the BJP like Bikshapathi yadav, Banda Kartika Reddy & Vikram Goud.

The fact that revanth reddy is working very hard despite the poor state of the INC & lack of funds can not be denied.To counter him BJP assigned the Dubbaka MLA to take him head on. Uttam kumar general focus has been to show that INC is still in the fight.

GHMC Election 2020: 'Others' Campaign Summary

The TDP & Left parties too have followed the footsteps of the Congress and is only focusing on those segments where it has men & material available. The TDP has placed its hopes on the wards which have a high percentage of voters of Andhra origin & the LEFT in industrial belts where workers & PSU unions exist.

I believe their aim is to nurture new young talent as the TDP has fielded many first timers & new candidates & to still show itself as a force to contend with in Hyderabad.

The TRS,BJP and INC have all fielded BC candidates in large proportions in Hyderabad.

The communities of munnuru kapus,golla yadavs and gouds have good tickets in good numbers in all 3 parties followed by mudiraj,kurumas and padmashalis.

The INC & TRS have fielded BC candidates in at least half the constituencies with the TRS fielding 91 of them.

GHMC Election 2020: The Migrant Vote

All parties have made attempts to target voters from other parts of the country as Hyderabad is a large cosmopolitan city. The BJP got leaders from all over the country to win over non telugu migrants especially from Karnataka, maharashtra and North India.

But the largest migrant community is that of Andhraites. Among these voters, most people who sympathize with YSR congress are expected to vote for TRS despite YSRCP not endorsing any party, those who are anti TRS are expected to vote for Congress & BJP depending upon the ward and who is stronger.

Most Pawan kalyan fans may vote for BJP after BJP convinced him not to contest in the city, TDP sympathizers in malkajgiri LS will vote for INC due to revanth reddy campaigning or TDP.

The BJP may have got leaders from AP to campaign in Hyderabad,but AP BJP is far from popular in Andhra itself, whether they can convince voters of Andhra origin here to vote for BJP is undetermined.

Due to the high number of ex-officio members of the TRS(31/45), the party need only win 67/150 seats on it’s own to have it’s own mayor & deputy mayor.

Many voters have already made up their mind on who to vote for. On voting day i.e. December 1st ,booth management and voter mobilisation will play a very important role for all the major parties.

Efficient handling of both of them could determine the victor of this election.

Now all that is left is to wait for voting day.

Voting Turnout in past elections in Hyderabad

Thanks to the turmoil & panic caused by COVID-19 and the economic devastation it has left in it’s wake, the Telangana SEC & political parties are concerned whether the turnout for the election will be high or not. Many old & middle aged people living in Hyderabad may or may not vote at all especially the urban middle class, those people who have lost their jobs and gone back to their hometown in telangana or AP may not bother to vote. Senior citizens, handicapped persons and mothers carrying newborn children or infants to polling stations can exercise their franchise in GHMC elections by directly entering into polling stations without waiting in queues.

The State Election Commission (SEC) has already announced the poll timings from 7 am to 6 pm and has permitted the voters above 80 years and physically challenged to utilise their franchise through postal ballot. Special safety measures like hourly sanitisation of the polling booths, wearing masks and hand gloves has been made mandatory for all the voters. The wards which witnessed the lowest voting in 2016 were Vijayanagar Colony at 33.98% & Mehdipatnam at 34.28%.The wards which witnessed the highest voting were Erragadda at 59.19% & Ramachandrapuram at 58.3%

MANIFESTO PROMISES

Highlights of the BJP Manifesto

- Free COVID vaccine and testing

- Free Water

- Free Power

- Free Tablet PCs

- Free Travel for Women Commuters in Metro and City buses

- Direct Assistance of Rs 25000 to those who have been affected by floods

Click here for more details

The TDP also released its manifesto a few days ago. It was released by Telangana TDP chief L Ramana at NTR Bhavan. Highlights

- Cooking gas through pipelines to every household.

-Constructing cement and/or tar roads in every slum & basti

- Mobile hospitals for every ward /division

- Improving drainage system and restoring sewage lines.

The 16 page TRS manifesto was released on 23rd by the Telangana CM KCR to gain an advantage over the opposition. Some of its promises were

  • Free drinking water supply up to 20000 litres to houses in GHMC limits
  • Motor vehicle tax of 267 crores for 3 lakh vehicles would be waived
  • Free power to barber shops, saloons,dhobi ghats & laundries
  • Metro rail & mmts expansion to help consumers.
  • Minimum power demand bill charges of HD and LT categories of industries, cinema theatres and commercial firms will also be waived for the six month period of lockdown.

KCR also announced many sops & incentives towards the Tollywood film industry which resulted in many Tollywood producers & stars like Mahesh Babu,Akkineni Nagarjuna & Chiranjeevi expressing their gratitude towards him on twitter.

The Congress manifesto was released on 24th by the entire Congress leadership with the slogan ‘We did it…We can do it again’ taking credit for past development of the city. The chairman of the manifesto committee was marri shashidhar reddy,ex minister.

Some of its unique promises are:-

  • Free drinking water supply up to 30000 litres to every house within GHMC limits
  • Promises to provide free power up to 100 units to all the consumers
  • An assurance to provide Rs 25 lakhs ex-gratia to the kin of those died in the recent floods. Rupes 2.5 to 5 lakhs for houses damaged in floods
  • Scrapping the Dharani portal,BRS & LRS system which have been introduced by the government of Telangana
  • Bringing Aarogyasri to cover COVID-19 as well.

KTR questions the economic performance of BJP while interacting with businessmen & industrialists

Netas place their wives & relatives to contest from seats reserved for women (75/150 seats in ghmc are reserved for women). Male spouses handle all campaigning work, women contestants turned to dummies?

TDP only contesting in segments where it has men & material available

Left parties contesting in only industrial areas & zones

Bandi Sanjay attacks KCR & Telangana DGP accusing them of creating fear among voters.

RWAs release their report cards & hand over wish lists to major political parties

BJP President Bandi Sanjay spoke of a surgical strike against Rohingya ,Pakistani & afghan illegal immigrants in Hyderabad & to weed them out & deport them & harshly criticized the performance of the TRS

Smriti Irani accused TRS & MIM of putting the names of illegal immigrants on electoral voter lists

Amit Shah,JP Nadda, Yogi Adityanath are some BJP leaders who are expected to campaign in the city & take part in rallies cum roadshows.

Tejaswi Surya, the Firebrand MP from Bangalore and BJYM morcha head campaigned in Hyderabad for 2 days & addressed BJP workers & youth at Osmania University . He further said Hyderabad would first be saffronised & then the whole of south india will follow.

KTR insists that TRS will win on its own with a ‘respectable number’

Raja Singh offered Pork Biryani to Asaduddin Owaisi after he offered beef biryani to bjp leaders visiting Hyderabad

Andhra origin voters are being wooed both by TRS & BJP

TRS leaders forced to leave colonies after facing fury of flood victims

K Swamy Goud, former legislative council speaker & TRS leader joins BJP in the presence of JP Nadda. He played a very active role in the Telangana agitation and was head of the Telangana Non Gazetted Officers Association. He was said to be unhappy with the way he was being treated by the party & especially KTR.

Akbaruddin Owaisi challenges KTR to demolish samadhis of NTR & PVNR which lie besides hussain sagar. He further criticised the trs for not building enough 2bhk homes.

KTR responded by condemning his remarks & called them inappropriate & in bad taste, he further invoked their past contributions for the telugu people calling them unparalleled.

BJP is working on a twin strategy of emotions - TRS-MIM linkage and Renaming Hyderabad while also attacking on practical issues - Traffic, 2BHK etc

Compared to 2016, fewer Candidates are contesting in this election indicating high level of polarisation of votes for the leading parties

KTR focusses on IT,development,jobs & communal harmony

Massive infighting in congress, top leaders & local leaders are involved in internecine quarrelling over candidates

Lack of good roads,low number of 2 BHK houses & poor drainage facilities is a negative point for TRS , MLA forced to give written undertaking to win votes after facing ire of residents.. saying no roads,no votes

TRS works on persuading & re-assuring rebels, ministers have been dispatched to visit homes of rebels

Prakash Javadekar lambasts TRS government, releases charge sheet stating 60 failures, calls election a choice between BJP or MIM

Congress now losing leaders to MIM, 2 ex corporators have already defected. More to join?

MIM attacks TRS. Ploy to ensure anti MIM votes are divided?

(21st Nov) Sarve Satyanarayana ,ex INC MP from Malkajgiri has joined the BJP today. He had been suspended from the INC after the 2018 assembly elections. Other leaders from the Congress who have already joined the BJP are Bikshapathi yadav & his son who have good influence in Serilingampally constituency wards, Banda Karthika reddy, the ex mayor of Hyderabad.

Another senior Congress leader Koppula Narasimha Reddy, a close confidant of PCC working president and Malkajgiri MP A Revanth Reddy, also resigned from the party and joined the BJP before the GHMC election campaign started & Kasam Ram Reddy, who is the general secretary of Ranga Reddy District Congress Committee has also followed suit.The BJP is expected to keep inducting INC leaders till 1st December. It has already inducted TRS corporators who have not been given tickets to contest the election.

It is known that the BJP is making efforts to win over Konda Vishweshwar Reddy,ex MP from Chevella & Vijayashanthi.

Jana Sena has dropped out of the GHMC elections after a meeting between Jana Sena and BJP

Two Congress leaders joined the BJP ahead of the GHMC elections

MIM will contest about 60 seats

TDP has released its first list for the GHMC elections

The State election commission has asked the Government to stop flood relief

KTR has reeled out list of achievements and claims party will win big & that TRS will win 10 seats even from the old city. Portrayed the election as a choice between Local ‘galli’ and ‘Delhi’ parties.

BJP has promised to compensate for the damage incurred by the people during the rains. If somebody has lost their house, we will give them a house. They also promised to ensure that the flood victims get Rs 20,000 as financial assistance.

BJP President Bandi Sanjay calls KCR a pakka deshdrohi. Accuses him of appeasing MIM & having links with terrorists

BJP will waive of traffic fines if they win the GHMC election

TRS has released its first list of candidates for the GHMC election

The Congress party has released its first list of Candidates for the election

The BJP has deployed Bhupendra Yadav as incharge for the GHMC election. He recently crafted a successful campaign in Bihar

BJP has released its first list of candidates

GHMC Elections 2020: Who is in power and what were the results of the previous election?

 

 

 

Except the MIM, the opposition was hit for a six out of the ball park by the TRS, much of the credit for this fantastic victory went to then Municipal Administration & Urban development Minister & the CM’s son K.T. Rama Rao.

The TRS won support from all sections of societies including muslims & voters of Andhra origin to achieve this fabulous victory.

The current mayor of the city is Bonthu Rammohan & the Deputy Mayor is Baba Fasiuddin both of whom belong to the TRS. The GHMC elections are expected to happen any time next year after Sankranti i.e. January 15th , According to the GHMC Act, the polling process should be completed three months before the term of the current council ends, which is on February 10, 2021.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, TRS performance poorly, here are the vote shares

TRS - 31.5%

AIMIM - 13.2%

INC - 25.5%

BJP - 27.4%

As per the GHMC Act, the general public can directly elect 150 corporators who along with 64 ex-officio members(MPs, MLAs ,MLCs etc) can then elect the Mayor and Deputy Mayor for the City.

GHMC Elections 2020: Demographic Mix and Reservations

As per the terms of the GHMC Act, half the wards in the corporation are reserved for women(75) ,the post of the mayor’s office too has been reserved for women this time. Wards are reserved for BCs,SCs & STs as per their numbers in the city.

The ST population is only 1.33% as such they get only 2 seats and SC population is 6.6% due to which they get 10 seat only in GHMC, 34% of seats are reserved for the BC communities.

[BC means Backward classes, what is BC in AP & Telangana is OBC in National lexicon]

As per the census of 2011, the city’s religious demographics are:

Hindus 64.93%,

Muslims 30.13%,

Christians 2.75%,

Jains 0.29%,

Sikhs 0.25%,

Buddhists 0.04%

and remaining others.

There are no provisions for reservation of seats based on religious lines.

Hyderabad is a large city, it no longer refers only to the urban old city of the Nizam. But also to the middle class dominated Secunderabad & Cyberabad which is the economic engine & IT Hub of the city. Mailardevpally ward has maximum voters numbering 79,290 while Ramachandrapuram has minimal number of voters with 27,997. Bansilalpet has the highest number of female voters while Fatehnagar has the highest number of transgender voters. It also includes some rural areas in Patancheru & Malkajgiri assembly constituencies which are urbanizing quickly. 

GHMC Election 2020: How are various parties placed in the 2020 election?

1) TRS:-

The ambassador car is without doubt the clear favourite to triumph in the poll, the TRS dominates the assembly, has the largest pantheon of leaders ,appeals to all communities & castes. The party won 15 MLAs within GHMC limits which became 16 after the lone INC MLA defected to it.

But it’s failure to win Secunderabad & Malkajgiri lok sabha seats in 2019 was a sign for it to stay on it’s toes & not take voters for granted. K.T.R. ,who is already a minister & a powerful leader in his own way has already been given charge of the campaign to win the GHMC again by his father. He is working on ground to ensure defections from workers & leaders of all parties to the TRS & chalking up strategies for every locality & scenario & has already unofficially decided which candidates are to be fielded from which wards. The TRS is working towards winning 100 seats again in the GHMC polls. TRS has already announced cut in property taxes

The TRS will aim towards deflating the opposition’s morale after it’s shocking defeat in Dubbaka which was once considered a TRS stronghold. The TRS will remind people of the importance of having a double engine government & the progress & development the city has seen under their administration. And mention the welfare schemes which have made the TRS very popular in the eyes of the poor & underprivileged

So far, the state government has also disbursed Rs 470 crore out of the budgeted Rs 550 crore to 4.75 lakh families earmarked to assist people distressed by recent heavy rains and flooding of houses in Hyderabad last month by doling out Rs 10,000 cash relief for rain-affected families in Hyderabad.

The government would provide assistance of ₹1 lakh each to houses which were fully damaged and ₹50,000 each to those which suffered partial damages.

The biggest problems for the TRS are too many aspirants for each & every seat as they have taken in leaders from all parties & anti-incumbency and the lack of jobs for youth. The poor handling of the Hyderabad floods which engulfed the city & ruined infrastructure & roads will definitely be raised.

The big leaders TRS is counting upon to win are of course KTR himself who everyone sees as his father’s heir, ministers Talasani Srinivas Yadav & Sabitha Indra Reddy, deputy speaker & long time TRS leader Padma Rao Goud.

2) BJP

BJP is doing everything it can to portray itself as the next big thing in Telangana after winning 4 lok sabha seats. They won Secunderabad Lok Sabha seat in 2019 despite holding on to only one seat in the 2018 assembly polls.

It is aiming to attract leaders from all parties & reaching out to all communities to expand it’s influence & outreach in Hyderabad. Its victory in Dubbaka has boosted it’s morale sky high & made it attractive to all dissidents in TRS & unhappy leaders in the Congress. It is expected to raise up the failures of the TRS & remind voters of past promises & claims of turning Hyderabad into Dallas & Istanbul & compare it to the handling of the recent floods. It plans to release 151 manifestos, one for every ward & for Hyderabad as a whole.

If it does succeed to put up a good performance here & come second in a no. of wards, this could help it go a long way. But if it fails to perform well, the winds powering the sails could disappear. This could also hurt Bandi Sanjay who is the MP from Karimnagar who has proved his worth by winning Dubbaka & has no interest in losing his sheen any moment soon or halting his march.

The leaders it will be counting upon are Kishen Reddy-the MoS for Home & Secunderabad MP, Bandi Sanjay who is the the head of the Telangana BJP unit,ex MLC N Ramachander Rao & the lone MLA from Hyderabad, Raja Singh. It will also count on the support of Jana Sena Party to get votes from the fans of Pawan Kalyan & voters from the Kapu caste.

Just like Dubbaka, we may see BJP cadre come in from all over Telangana to Hyderabad to work for the BJP & leaders from other parts of India to come & campaign here.

3) MIM

There are 45 seats in the old city of Hyderabad which is the ‘adda’ of MIM top to bottom. MIM won 43 seats in 2009, 44 in 2016 & is expected to win 40+ again as of now.

There is literally no proper opposition to MIM in most of the old city. The MBT, INC & BJP can be expected to put up fights in some wards but whether it can materialise to victory or not is something which can’t be determined now.

The MIM is already an ally of the TRS despite indulging in a ‘friendly fight’ with each other in the GHMC election & if needed will ally with the TRS to keep control over the GHMC if the TRS can’t muster a majority on it’s own.

What will be interesting to watch is how many votes the MIM can win from non-muslims & how many segments it can win or improve its performance in and outside the old city part of Hyderabad. The MIM has a good base in Jubilee Hills,Secunderabad and Rajendra Nagar assembly constituencies where it secured above 10% of votes (25% in Jubilee hills in 14,10% in Secunderabad in 2014 & 18% in Rajendra Nagar in 2018). The MIM cadre and corporators will be counting upon the Owaisi brothers to lead the fight.

4) Indian National Congress Telangana (IN) unit is beleaguered with loss after loss & plunging morale due continuous defeats and numerous defections of many MLAs & leaders to the TRS. It is no surprise that so many see the end of it after the Dubbaka by polls where the BJP emerged victorious over the TRS. It had only 1 MLA within the GHMC limits who went over to join the TRS after the elections were over. The local unit somehow succeeded in winning 3 Lok sabha seats in Telangana in 2019

TG congress still has some cadre left & strong charismatic leaders throughout Telangana. The biggest problems are total lack of unity & poor leadership which has been plaguing it even before it’s disastrous performance in the 2018 assembly elections. Add to that the structure and organisation of the party has become weak in Hyderabad especially in Secunderabad & Hyderabad Lok sabha segments where it registered a very poor performance in both the assembly & lok sabha elections

This is perhaps the last chance for the party to show it is still number 2 in Telangana & hope to outdo the BJP even if it can’t defeat the TRS otherwise what happened in Odisha could happen here too. It has decided to field BCs on half the seats (75/150) in the GHMC to make inroads among BC voters & mollify the concerns of BC leaders & cadre. BCs are more than 50% of Telangana. And like the BJP is expected to rake up the failures of the TRS & question what the Union Government has done for the city.

It will count upon its firebrand MP from Malkajgiri Revanth Reddy & ex MPs Anjan Kumar Yadav & Konda Vishweshwar Reddy to play an important role here along with many MLA contestants .

5)OTHERS

The Telugu Desam Party is no longer what it is, it has been reduced to a shadow of its former self in Hyderabad and Telangana thanks to lack of leadership after bifurcation and continuous defections of it’s leaders, cadre and voters to the TRS and INC. The TDP is more focused on happenings in Andhra Pradesh as of now and the Tirupati Lok sabha Bypoll. He is not expected to campaign here.The TDP is expected to contest the election and maybe be in competition in a couple of wards. But except Nandamuri Suhasini, no other TDP leader of note may campaign here.

Pawan Kalyan the leader of the Jana Sena has already expressed his intention to contest in the GHMC polls, whether they will do so in alliance with the BJP or not is not sure.The Left parties (CPI,CPM) have decided to contest together to keep their presence alive among the labour centric pockets of the city and Kodandaram TJS too has decided to contest.

Don’t be surprised if you see any last minute alliances or understandings reached between 2 or more of any opposition parties in an effort to increase their vote shares or number of wards.

Above all, people must not forget this is a local body poll. Voters are more likely to vote for a candidate rather than a party at such lower levels

About GHMC and Past Elections: GHMC is the civic corporation body that is responsible for overseeing the metropolitan city of Hyderabad, the capital of the state of Telangana. It is one of the largest municipal corporations in India with a population of more than 75 lakhs people and an area of 650 km² & as of the year 2019 it had a financial budget of 5380 crores.

Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation or GHMC for short was formed from the erstwhile Municipal Corporation of Hyderabad. Several Municipalities and Panchayats from Ranga Reddy, Nalgonda and Medak district were also merged and are now part of the GHMC. GHMC has divisions on the basis of Zones, Circles and Wards. There are 5 zones, 18 Circles and 150 Wards under GHMC.

 

 

Many today might find this hard to believe but the situation of the TRS in 2009 was so bad that it didn’t contest the elections out of fear of losing deposits & being humiliated.

The Congress & the MIM came together to govern Hyderabad together with both sharing the post of Mayor & Deputy Mayor for an equal period of time till the next election.

The 150 wards of GHMC are spread across 24 assembly constituencies & 5 Lok Sabha seats

By Anant Tanikella

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