GHMC 2020 Election : The 2020 GHMC election was one of the biggest electoral breakthrough for the saffron party in Telangana. In Lok Sabha 2019 election BJP managed to win 4 seats which was enough for the party leadership to start their mission to conquer Telangana.
To add to the motivation of party leadership and the cadres, BJP registered an impressive victory in Dubbakka bye election which was followed by an outstanding performance in GHMC election where BJP went from 4 Corporators in 2015 to 48 in 2020.
Many pollsters did share their numbers for the outcome of the election. One such pollster was Sreeram who was spot on in predicting the result.
Here is how Sreeram came up with the above mentioned numbers for each Political Party :
1. There was widespread anger against the incumbent Government on the way they reacted to the floods that had hit Hyderabad. After the announcement of the GHMC elections the Government’s attempt to dole out Rs. 10,000/- to some of the citizens was seen as an act of bribing the voters which further fueled the anger.
2. The sudden announcement of elections after the debacle at Dubakka was seen as a desperate attempt by Shri. KCR to thwart the anti-incumbency and exposed the thought process of the incumbent Government.
3. The dynasty rule coupled with widespread rumors of corruption was becoming a nice fodder for BJP which was used by the revamped leadership of state unit of BJP.
4. The manner in which TRS had decimated Congress &TDP by ensuring that most of the elected legislators had migrated to TRS also led to the belief amongst the citizens of Hyderabad that TRS was creating a situation of TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor. This led to BJP occupying the pole position of the Opposition party.
5. There was a sudden surge in BJP who were buoyant after the triumph in the byelections at Dubbaka. BJP activated its election machinery by deploying all their top leaders including Amit Shah and Yogi for a civic election.
6. What went unnoticed by many was the fact that several erstwhile Congressmen who were unwelcome into TRS were waiting for this golden opportunity to join the saffron bandwagon which happened in several divisions.
All this led me to believe that TRS would massively lose its vote share to BJP but the ground signals were clearly showing that TRS was gaining sizeable vote share of erstwhile TDP’s vote share. TDP had 13.11% of vote share in 2016 GHMC elections and we believed that this was moving lock, stock and barrel to TRS while the traditional Telangana sympathizers vote along with erstwhile Congress votes were moving to BJP.
A Tsunami by BJP could have been possible if the voting percentage had touched 50% but that did not happen. As usual people living in Gated Communities and villas did not turn up to vote in the Western Hyderabad which stopped BJP near 50 seats.
All this led me to conclude that TRS would get around 35% of vote share and 33+% by BJP and correspondingly came with my seat projections. The so-called settlers vote had consolidated behind TRS.
To validate my point of view here comes the facts, in areas like Kukatpally & Serilngampally, the percentage of settler population is 58.5 and in Serilingampally the predominant caste are Kammas and same is the case with Patencheru & Ramachandrapuram. All these divisions were won comfortably by TRS. Even the expected Pawan Kalyan factor of Kapus vote transfer to BJP did not happen.
In the 10 divisions comprising Serilingampally, TRS got 51.44% while BJP got 38.95% winning just 1 division. Without their support TRS would have been routed in this election and BJP would have crossed 75+ seats but it was not to happen.
GHMC 2020 Elections : Key Takeaways
Þ Total decimation of TDP. Once a ruling party of undivided AP got just 55,142 votes which was hardly 25,000 more votes than NOTA.
Þ Congress is on the verge of getting buried in TS. Mere change of leadership is going to be of no use. There needs to be change of intent and this does not look possible in the near future.
Þ MIM is holding its fort strong and increasing its vote share in spite of the low voter turnout.
Þ TRS have found a new support base of AP settlors in Hyderabad and there is ample time for the party to introspect and do course correction. TINA factor is no more applicable for TRS and a vibrant BJP is a different political animal than what KCR has handled till now. If pro Telangana sympathizers ditch TRS the way they did at Hyderabad then 2023 election is going to too difficult for TRS.
Þ BJP had made a dramatic upsurge but the only way it can mount a serious challenge to TRS at Hyderabad in 2023 Assembly election is by increasing the voter turnout. Another area to seriously work is to bring part of Andhra settlers into its fold. It is evident that the supporters of BJP living in Resident Communities & areas in Old City are not turning up to vote. If BJP can mobilize its cadre across the state and bring their dormant supporters to polling booths in Hyderabad then Telangana can really turn out to be the Gateway for BJP in South India.
All in all, the next 36 months could turn out to be interesting with BJP putting its full might into action. How TRS would respond to this challenge is going to be worth watching?