Five Reasons Why Arvind Kejriwal May Lose Delhi Assembly Election

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Five Reasons Why Arvind Kejriwal May Lose Delhi Assembly Election

17 Jan 2020
Five Reasons Why Arvind Kejriwal May Lose Delhi Assembly Election
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Delhi Election 2020 will be held on 8th February 2020 and results will be declared on 11th February 2020. Many political pundits and even the exit polls have already delcared Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party to be a winner in Upcoming Delhi election. However, the Upcoming Delhi Assembly elections may not be a cakewalk for Aam Aadmi Party. Here are the five reasons why AAP may lose the upcoming Delhi election

1. Same Votebank of Congress and AAP

In 2015 Assembly Election voteshare of Congress dipped to 9.7%. In 2013 Assembly election, Congress got 24.6% voteshare. Just in 2 years Congress lost around 15% in Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party got 29.5% voteshare in 2013 Assembly election, whereas in 2015 its voteshare increased to 54.3% that is an increase of almost 25% voteshare. BJP on other hand  got 32% voteshare in 2015 Assembly election, that is less than 1% decrease in voteshare that it got in 2013 assembly election. The 15% vote swing from Congress helped AAP to register massive win 2015 Assembly election. If Congress manages to win back even 10% of it vote bank, AAP may find it difficult to retain power in Delhi.

2. Wide Gap to Fill since Lok Sabha 2019

In Lok Sabha 2014, BJP got around 46% of voteshare in Delhi where as Aam Aadmi Party came second with 32.9% voteshare. The voteshare difference between BJP and AAP was only around 13% in Lok Sabha 2014. In 2019 Lok Sabha election BJP got around 57% voteshare in Delhi, while AAP came distant 3rd in Delhi. It could manage only 18% voteshare in Delhi that is around 39% gap of vote percentage between BJP and AAP. For any political party, to fill such a huge gap in just 8 months is very difficult.

3. BJP Maintaining its Voteshare of Lok Sabha

In past few Assembly elections, BJP may not have performed as it expected, however, BJP has been able to maintain its voteshare of Lok Sabha election in Assembly election to some extent. The most BJP lost was in Jharkhand that is 16.5%. In Haryana BJP lost around 11.4% voteshare while in Maharashtra there was change of only 0.25%. Thus, in order to register a 39% swing in Delhi election, AAP needs to do a real magic or Congress needs to withdraw from Delhi election completely.

4. Anti- Incumbency

Aam Aadmi Party has been in power in Delhi for last 5 years. In last 5 years the 67 MLAs of Aam Aadmi Party were entitled to work for the people of Delhi. Since 2014-2019 few of its MLAs left, few of its founding members have been shown exit door. Added to it there exits a massive anti-incumbency of 5 years against the ruling Arvind Kejriwal government. It must be noted that 15 sitting MLAs of AAP have been denied ticket for 2020 Assembly election. This is clear evidence that Delhi Assembly election 2020 is not going to be a cakewalk for Aam Aadmi Party.

5. No More a Wave Election

2013 Assembly Election, Aam Aadmi Party a new entrant in Delhi politics fought the election making the Corruption of Congress a central agenda. Added to it, Anna Andolan fuelled it to win a good number of seats in Delhi Assembly Election. In 2015 assembly election, people of Delhi wanted to give the party, which could be in power for 49 days, one more chance. The freebies offered by it was enough for Delhi voters to give the party one more chance. Five year down the line, the election is now to be fought on 5 years of its Governance and the fulfilment of the promises that it made during 2015 Assembly Election. Though party may sound to be confident, the ground reality may be completely different , this time it has no one to blame for any of its misadventures in Delhi.

Delhi Election Prediction

On our prediction platform, our predictors believe that Arvind Kejriwal led Aam Aadmi Party will easily secure a majority. In contrast, there are very less takers of BJP winning a majority in Delhi. Now, even you can join and mark your prediction about the Delhi election. We are giving away a cash reward of around 2.5 Lakhs for the upcoming Delhi election. For Hindi version of Delhi Assembly election Prediction, click here and for English version of Delhi Assembly election, click here.

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