Georgia Senate Runoff Polls, Predictions: Republicans set to win?

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Georgia Senate Runoff Polls, Predictions: Republicans set to win?

12 Dec 2020
Georgia Senate Runoff Polls, Predictions: Republicans set to win?
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Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: In the November election for the US Senate seats in Georgia, none of the candidates won more than 50% of the vote necessary to represent the state in the US senate.

The Democrats currently trail 48-50 in the US senate and are desperate to win the two senate races so as to be able to better help the policy agenda of Joe Biden. Republican control of the senate could severely impact the agenda of Joe Biden.

We analyse the past results and the latest polls and predictions of the two runoff races

Georgia Senate Election in November, A Summary

US Senate Election Result

Republican Sen David Perdue : 49.7%

Democrat Jon Ossoff : 47.1%

The Polls got this election wrong giving Ossoff a slim lead of 0.7%. WSBTV Landmark was able to predict this election accurately

US Senate Special Election Result

Democrat Raphael Warnock: 32.9%

Republican Sen Kelly Loeffler*: 25.9%

The polls got this election wrong giving Warnock a 11 point advantage over Loeffler who was appointed by the Governor as a replacement of retiring Johnny Isakson. WSBTV Landmark was closest to the results missing the results by 4 points

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: The Latest Polls and Predictions

According to fivethirtyeight, Ossoff is ahead by 0.7% points, well within the margin of error, Warnock on the other hand is ahead by 1.6% points, well within the margin of error

On realclearpolitics, Perdue is ahead by 0.2%, well within the margin of error, Warnock on the other hand is ahead by 0.5% ahead, well within the margin of error

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: Google Trends

In the two weeks leading to the 2020 election in November, Ossoff led Perdue 68-32 on Google search in Georgia. In the last one week, Ossoff is leading 57 to 43 indicating increased share of interest for Perdue. 

In the two weeks leading to the 2020 election in November, Loeffler led Warnock 63-37 on Google search in Georgia. In the last one week, Loeffler is leading Warnock 67 to 33 indicating increased share of interest for Loeffler. 

Overall, the polls suggest that this election will be difficult to call at the moment. However, given the polling bias towards Democrats in this election cycle, one can say that Loeffler and Perdue have an edge in this election

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: Trends from Past Elections

  • Georgia hasn't sent a Democrat to the US Senate in last 20 years and if a Democrat manages to win the runoff, it will be for the first time in 20 years
  • In 2016, John Isakson beat Jim Barksdale by 13.8% points. David Perdue on the other hand won in 2014 by 7.7% points. 
  • President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. become the first Democrat to win Georgia in a Presidential election since 1992. 
  • The suburbs of South Atlanta which used to be Red turned Blue after November 3rd voting
  • Past run off elections have been disasters for the Democrats. Read this analysis that says it could be different this time

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls and Predictions: Campaign News

Georgia Senate Runoff: When is the Voting ?

The two runoff elections of Georgia is scheduled on 5th of January but the early voting begins from the 14th of December.

Election officials have made arrangements for safee voting sites given the rising number of COVID cases and COVID related deaths. However, there is likely to be more scrutiny given the controversy surrounding the General election.

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