Telangana Graduate Constituencies Election Result: The GHMC election has just concluded, but it is far from being the last election in the state for the next few months.
Just around the corner the state has upcoming MLC elections, a by-election from Nagarjuna Sagar Assembly constituency, urban local body elections & there is a good chance of a by-election from Vemulawada Assembly constituency if the present TRS MLA is determined to be a German Citizen by the judiciary.
Telandgan Graduate Constituencies Result: Latest update
Here is an update on the results of the MLC election in Hyderabad
Counting started on 17th and as per 19th morning, counting of the first preference of votes is still ongoing.
These are the latest figures as of now (9 :05 AM), due to paucity of information we are only posting the results for the leading candidates
After 6 rounds of Counting of the 1st preference of votes
Number of Votes
Surabhi Vani Devi(TRS)
N Ramachander Rao(BJP)
G Chinna Reddy(INC)
It seems KCR’s decision to place P V Narasimha Rao’s daughter as their candidate was a masterstroke. 3 weeks back nobody was expecting TRS to come first even in terms of first preference voters. Many TRS candidates for the MLC position who were initially enthusiastic backed down later and were hesitant at the prospect of contesting.
Professor Nageshwar’s lack of organization and money power has ensured his poor performance this time despite a good name for him and months of campaigning.
A counting of second preference votes is almost inevitable as the TRS candidate seems unlikely to cross 50% of all votes on her own.
After 7 rounds of Counting of the first preference of votes
Number of Votes
Palla Rajeshwar Reddy(TRS)
G Premender Reddy(BJP)
Teenmar Mallanna has shocked everyone by performing so well and coming second when everyone expected Professor Kodandaram to come 2nd.
It seems this Youtube icon actually got out his followers to vote not to mention his months of hardwork and a padayatra too. It seems that the youth voters have consolidates in large numbers for him.
As you can see due to the number of anti incumbent candidates the entire anti TRS vote has been heavily fragmented giving TRS the 1st rank in 1st preferences but it is far from the 50% it needs.
A counting in the 2nd preference of the voters is certain.
The fight for the MLC seats for the last 2 weeks has been a very riveting and captivating fight for all politically inclined citizens.
On 14th March, voting in the 2 graduate constituencies of Hyderabad-RangaReddy and Mahbubnagar (HRM) and Nalgonda Warangal and Khammam (NWK) ended. The voting time was between 8AM to 4PM, but in some places those who were in the queue before 4 PM were allowed to stay in line and vote till even after 4 PM.
2021(figures on 14th evening)
2021(figures on 15th evening)
The turnout in both constituencies reached historic never seen highs compared to the figures in 2015. Perhaps also due to many IT employees working from their hometown(outside Hyderabad)
Barring a few incidents and clashes where BJP accused TRS workers of distributing money in some booths, the polling was mostly peaceful across the selected districts.
The polling in Hyderabad city on a whole was also considerably higher than the poll percentage recorded in the recent Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections (46.55 per cent), Assembly elections in 2018 (39.49 per cent) and Parliament elections in 2019 (44.75 per cent).
Now when will results come out? Counting will begin on 17th March , but as I mentioned below due to prerequisites for winning and the system of preference it can go on for days if no one gets a majority in the first round of counting in first preferences.
6 years ago the counting for HRM took 10 hours and NWK took 37 hours, and this time due to the doubling of electors in both and the large number of contesting candidates in both constituencies the counting is expected to be dragged out for 2,3 even 4 days if counting isn’t completed by the first round.
Already one exit poll is out by the ‘Working Journalists Union’
The TRS is confident of winning both seats, KCR believes that the high turnout is due to the voter management, strategy and get out the vote efforts by his party cadre. The TRS believes that atleast 2 lakh votes were cast by trs cadre/registered party workers and their families. The BJP too is hopeful of winning atleast one seat as they too put tremendous efforts in getting out their voters.
[Do read the below updates to see the strategy of the BJP and TRS in how they applied ‘get out the vote’ strategies and appointed 1 worker/co-ordinator for every 20-50 voters]
From what I have been able to make out, the TRS managed to dodge and bring down anti-incumbency among government employees and other unions by promising a higher salary by increasing the PRC fitment to 29%. But it failed to do the same among youth.
It seems the minor parties and independents got their supporters to the booths, the large number of such contestants has made everything very unpredictable and bamboozled pollsters and leaders from all pollsters. A lot depends upon 2nd and 3rd preference choices of the voters .
Money was spent heavily by the major parties especially one to win over voters through cash and other inducements.
The TRS spent lakhs on Facebook advertisements and no other candidates was close to it’s spending on FB. This was a smart move and one the INC and BJP should learn from.
Pawan Kalyan’s mid day statements calling upon his supporters to vote for Surabhi Vani ,the daughter of PVNR must have come as a huge shock to Telangana BJP leaders.
This was clearly a sign that Pawan was peeved off at Telangana BJP leaders using his name and supporters in the GHMC election and later claiming that the JS-BJP alliance was limited to AP only.
This endorsement was a boost to the TRS but as it came in the middle of polling I doubt it was of much use.
The fight here is 3 sided between the BJP,TRS and Professor Nageshwar. The TRS which was at a big disadvantage one month back managed to put up a good fight and get back into the ring.
Credit must be given to KTR and TRS leaders and cadre who put up a very hard fight. Whether it’s out of the box candidate will be able to dodge the general anti-incumbency is to be seen.
The BJP is confident of retaining this seat due to the spirited fight put up by the candidate and the party which has a strong apparatus and organisation here compared to the other seat.
G Chinna Reddy is not expected to do well in Hyderabad and spent a lot of time campaigning in Mahbubnagar. Had he and L Ramana of the TDP got more time for campaigning,perhaps then they could have made more of an impact.
I don’t expect anyone to win in the first round of voting, what will be interesting is who TRS voters will have voted as their second preference which many hint has been Professor Nageshwar
The fight has narrowed down between Palla Rajeshwar Reddy of the TRS and Professor Kondandaram(TJS). The Professor’s role in the Telangana movement and his hardwork and dedication towards Telangana has propelled him ahead to the 2nd position despite the presence of so many anti TRS candidates. One interesting point is that many anti-incumbent voters who voted for BJP ,INC,LEFT or teenmar mallanna added Kodandaram as their 2nd preference
Palla Rajeshwar Reddy’s 6 months of campaigning and hard work may help him reap huge dividends. The TRS believes it has done very well especially in Khammam district.
Ramulu Naik put up a fine performance in Nalgonda district and tribal parts of Warangal but not anywhere else. He lost anti incumbency votes to the professor.
Tennmaar mallanna has made some inroads among youth due to his months’ worth of campaigning.
Last time the TRS won only due to 2nd preference votes. This time the TRS thinks it can win the seat based on first preference votes alone.
The BJP believes it has put up a good performance and is hopeful of coming atleast number 2 if it doesn’t win.
Now let us understand how these MLC Polls work.
Firstly, the only eligible electors for the graduates constituency are those who have been graduates from any university in India for at least 3 years before November 1st, 2020 & reside in those constituencies. The voter profile ranges from undergraduate students to pensioners and includes government employees, private employees, teachers’ and unemployed people.
Second, to win this election a candidate must secure (50% of all valid votes)+1 i.e. a simple majority.
Third, an elector can choose to vote for multiple candidates through the system of voter preference! He can do that by ranking the candidates as 1 (first preference), 2 (second preference) till so on if he/she wishes to do so.
Fourth, on counting day if none of the candidates secures the majority votes, then the candidate who got the least number of first preference votes will be eliminated from counting, and second preference votes in his ballot paper will be distributed to respective candidates as per who the elector has voted for.
The process of second preference and elimination will continue in several rounds by eliminating candidates who get least votes, till a candidate gets more than 50% votes. Even after completion of all rounds, if none of the candidates get required the number, the person with the highest number of votes will be declared elected.
The voters in such MLC elections must exercise preferential votes, marking their preference towards multiple candidates unlike in other elections where they have to choose only one party or candidate. For this reason, EVMs are used in any MLC election and thus ballot paper is used.
Since there are many candidates in this MLC election, it is highly unlikely to have winner in 1st round of counting. This has lead independent candidates to ask people to vote for them on 2nd preference if not first.
The Government and the opposition parties have been arguing back and forth over the number of jobs the TRS has created, over whether promises have been fulfilled or not,the pay for government employees and teachers,filling of government jobs etc
If the BJP and INC have been questioning the claim of KTR that the TRS created 1.32 lakh jobs, KTR has hit back demanding to know why the ITIR given to Telangana was withdrawn, the performance of Delhi in creating jobs and the competence of the INC government.
The TRS government started the election facing massive anti incumbency as I have mentioned below from unemployed youth ,teachers ,government employees. Now even Brahmins and advocates are incensed at the events of the brutal Manthani double murder which happened at the hands of TRS leaders.
KCR may not be campaigning like his son and his party ministers, Zilla Parishad Chairmembers and MLAs are but he is clearly leading the strategy and execution of the entire campaign. This is possibly the first time he is taking a teachers and graduates MLC election this seriously.
The party has succeeded in winning over various employees and teachers unions to the party's fold with assurances on 29 per cent PRC fitment, a three-year retirement age hike and a promise of filling of 50,000 government job vacancies soon after the MLC polls.
The employees are also aware that the TRS government still has a lot of time left and don’t want to have frosty relations with the CM. The CM personally assured the employee union leaders he will ensure a minimum of 29% hike in their salaries compared to the recommended 7.5% of the PRC .
The party has also got Electricity Unions and home guard Unions to endorse it.
The TRS has hoped that the anger of government employees has abated and now they will vote for them, whether the rank and file of the unions will vote for TRS or not is something we will find out later.
The party is desperate to stop the BJP’s march and has left no stone unturned in targeting the BJP over farm laws, petrol and diesel prices, the revocation of ITIR from Hyderabad,12 crore jobs promise and so on. It has identified the party as enemy No. 1 on a general level.
KTR even came out criticising the privatisation of Vishakapatnam Steel Plant in AP and standing by the employees. He used this stance to point out that today the GOI is privatising PSUs in AP, tomorrow they will extend the same courtesy. to Telangana as well.
A move aimed at winning over Andhra origin voters (who voted for TRS in the GHMC election) and reminding educated PSU employees of a reason to vote for TRS.
As of now, it seems the youth are still angry with the TRS and are likely to vote enmasse against them. The BJP too has been working very hard, Kishen Reddy Union MoS(Home) and Bandi Sanjay have campaigned very hard to ensure a BJP victory in both seats. Union Ministers like Prakash Javedkar and Ramesh Pokhriyal were also roped in for campaigning.
The Ex TNGOs Union leader Swamy Goud who recently defected to the BJP was also deputed by the party to campaign among and win the support of government employees. Uttam Kumar Reddy, the current TPCC leader too has gone all over the state and campaigned hard in favour of the Congress despite being on cards o be replaced after the GHMC debacle
93 candidates are contesting here. The fight in the constituency is between 3 prominent candidates -incumbent MLC Ramachander Rao, professor Nageshwar and Surabhi Vani Devi.
Surabhi Vani Devi’s (the ex PM PVNR’s daughter) candidature was a surprise to most people when her name was announced, it seems KCR wants to bank on and snatch the legacy of PV Narasimha Rao from the Congress the same way BJP snatched Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel from them).
She being a Brahmin could help bring down the anger from the community over the brutal Manthani double murders and take away votes from N Ramachander Rao who is also a Brahmin.
Being an educationist and a social activist could bring down the anti-incumbency the quintessential TRS candidate faces. Her candidature is without doubt an out of box decision by KCR, but it still doesn’t change the fact that winning this seat is an uphill task. He has appointed his nephew and ‘Trouble-Shooter’ Harish Rao to be the incharge for this seat to ensure a TRS victory.
But this doesn’t change the fact the party is facing a tough fight as can be seen by the frustrated comments of this minister against voters who refused to vote for TRS.
The party has been doing it’s best to find and win over graduate voters. It will count on anti-incumbency and it’s strong cadre presence and organisation in Hyderabad and Mahbubnagar to deliver it a second victory.
N Ramachander Rao who is the incumbent MLC and a lawyer has been campaigning hard for months. But there is anti-incumbency against the candidate too as he is unable to mention any of his past achievements in the last 6 years and has done nothing much of note to the consternation of many.
Professor Nageshwar had won this MLC seat 2 times in the past (2007 and 2009). Despite being an independent, he is well known among youths, students and other employees and stands a good chance of winning this time too .
He is a popular and well known political analyst who appears on Television and has his own Youtube Channel.There are many people who claim that he is secretly working for KCR and that KCR deputed him as a proxy to divert the anti TRS vote and/or to ensure he and not N Ramachander Rao enters the legislative council.
The fact that he is number 53 on the ballot paper will be an impediment to him in winning votes. None the less he is expected to get first, second and third preference votes from all anti TRS voters.
G Chinna Reddy(INC) is known to have a good image and has spent most of his time campaigning in united Mahbubnagar district where he is from. He will be counting upon the congress in united Ranga Reddy and greater Hyderabad to add and ensure a respectable result for him.
L Ramana(BC-padmashali), the Telangana TDP chief and ex minister too throw his hat in the ring in an effort to galvanise what’s left of the TDP cadre and voters.
71 candidates are contesting from here. There is only one TRS Candidate Palla Rajeshwar Reddy, but there is no shortage of well-known anti TRS candidates who range from 5-7. Palla Rajeshwar Reddy won the last time only due to counting of second preference votes. It is very much likely that the counting of second, third and fourth preference votes could play a very important role in the final calculation of results.
He tried to go to Kakatiya University and campaign but was forced to face bitter and furious students who raised slogans of “Palla Go back”. His attempts at pacifying them miserably failed. He is not expected to win the votes of many youth electors.
The BJP candidate despite lacking name recognition and lack of time to campaign is winning support on the fact that BJP is the only party which can take on TRS and defeat it. BJP’s weak organisation in Khammam, Nalgonda and much of Warangal is certainly an obstacle. But the party name recognition and success in GHMC is a very big boost to him and is helping him win second and third preference votes. He might as well pull of a surprise from here!
Ramulu Naik’s campaign doesn’t seem to have taken off on a larger level, the lack of time to campaign as I mentioned below has certainly hurt him. He is counting heavily on the INC Votebase+Lambada voters to help him. Professor Kodandaram, the ex-leader of the TJAC and the most famous apolitical leader of the Telangana movement from 2008-2014 is contesting on a TJS ticket and has received popular support from government employees, graduates, youth and is known to have a good support in Warangal and Nalgonda Districts.
The TDP (which has a good base in Khammam district) has announced it’s support to him. He stands a good chance at winning. Cheruku Sudhakar has won the support of the MRPS which is a Madiga SC representative body and has a good base in Northern United Nalgonda District. Like Kodandaram he too was a strong participant in the Telangana movement.
Teenmaar Mallanna aka Naveen Kumar has received a very good feedback from the Youth and can count upon expecting a good number of votes from them.
[The Indian constitution neither allows dual citizenship nor foreign citizens to be legislators]
The lotus is blooming and bursting with confidence and pride. It is threatening to eclipse the INC & also dislodge the ambassador by next assembly election.
The TRS is still the strongest party in Telangana and is preparing itself for a new player in the game. It is working hard to keep it’s voters together and contain growing anti incumbency.
The INC instead of pulling up it’s socks and uniting after 2 debacles is still stuck in internecine infighting as local senior leaders are either working hard to either promote their case to be the TPCC chief or working to sabotage the case of their rivals.
Despite it’s flaws it is still strong in the majority of of Telangana with a firm semi urban and rural social base along with lower rung leaders and workers.
But the amount of damage the lack of a leader and direction and this infighting are doing to the party across Telangana can’t be stated in words.
The TPCC chief was supposed to be decided by January 6th but the decision has been postponed to after the Nagarjuna Sagar By-election due to rampant infighting and concerns raised by local leaders in Nalgonda district.
All of the above will make the year of 2021 a very politically active year in Telangana.
(Old District Map of Telangana)
In this context, there are 4 important local elections coming up in the state of Telangana in the next few months which are based in Southern & Eastern Telangana:-
A.MLC polls (Graduates)
B. Nagarjuna Sagar Assembly by polls
C. GWMC(Greater Warangal municipal corporation) elections
D. Khammam corporation elections
These 4 have been considered given the likely impact they can have on the state politics.
Yes, other elections such as Achampet municipality and Siddipet municipality too have an impact. But i personally feel the above ones could have a tidal effect in and around some districts.
These elections are important because unlike Dubbaka (in east Medak) & Hyderabad, the INC still has a lot of strength and cadre in southern-eastern telangana and thus is seen as an electoral alternative.The sail won’t be so easy for the TRS as it was 5 years ago due to rising anti incumbency against the TRS government and KCR.
The BJP which already has a sizeable presence in Hyderabad & North Telangana has to work hard to prove itself as a pan Telangana alternative now as it is still weak and almost non-existent in many parts of Telangana including the 3 districts of eastern Telangana, though it has successfully captured the imagination and attention of people all over the state.
A) MLC Polls
MLC means Member for legislative council, the state of telangana has a legislative council comprising of 40 members (34 elected+6 nominated)
The Election Commission announced that the MLC polls will happen on 14th March, 2021
The polls will be conducted to fill 2 seats from the graduates constituencies of Hyderabad-Rangareddy-Mahbubnagar(HRM) and Nalgonda-Warangal-Khammam (NWK) graduates’ constituencies whose current sitting MLCs (whose terms will expire soon) are N Ramachander Rao (BJP) & Palla Rajeshwar Reddy (TRS) respectively.
The only eligible electors from the graduates constituency are those who have been graduates from any university in India for at least 3 years before November 1st, 2020 & reside in those constituencies. It is estimated there are around 5 lakh eligible voters in both constituencies.
Around 5 lakh voters have been enrolled from both constituencies which is double the number of enrolled voters from the last election.
N Ramachander Rao (a Brahmin) is considered to have won not just due to the months long hard work he put in, but also due to voters of Andhra origin and opposition parties transferring it’s votes to him to ensure the TRS’ defeat.
There has been an upsurge in anti-incumbency against the TRS to the shock of it’s senior leaders after the 2019 LS elections, this was made clear after the debacle in Dubbaka and further vindicated in the GHMC elections.
There is a lot of frustration and resentment against the TRS among the educated graduates section of society too.
The unemployed youth are angry as they have no jobs due to the economic crisis and the unemployment allowance promised 2 years ago has shown no signs of materialising.
The lack of public sector notifications enabling recruitment and service with the Government of Telangana too is frustrating. KCR’s promise of filling 50,000 posts within 3 months after the GHMC remains a promise on paper
Government employees and Teachers are unhappy because the 1st PRC of Telangana hasn’t reached up to their expectations and want the government to pay them more . Teacher unions aren’t amused at seeing the TRS treat them differently compared to other government employees and are unlikely to vote for them
The Manthani double murder could also hurt the TRS among lawyers and advocates seeing how brutally the lawyer couple were murdered and weren’t given the police security the courts had decreed they were to receive.
The TRS is very eager to win both seats or at least make sure the opposition doesn’t win and has actively taken part in enrolling voters and campaigning. Ministers and MLAs have been going on around seeking support from graduates since January.
The TRS still hasn’t decided their candidate for this constituency as per 20th February, the viable candidates the party was supposedly considering were:-
1)Bonthu Rammohan ,the ex-mayor of Hyderabad
2)Varkatam Jagannadh Reddy, social activist and educationist from old Mahbubanagar district, has goodwill among graduates there
3)G Devi Prasad Rao, former Telangana Non gazetted employees association leader and 2015 MLC contestant
4)Marri Rajashekhar Reddy, son in law of Minister Malla Reddy and 2019 contestant from Malkajgiri LS
5)Kasani Veeresh, BC Mudiraj Leader from Greater Hyderabad
6)P L Srinivas, senior TRS leader
Recent news suggested that the TRS could consider throwing it’s weight behind one candidate if they can’t find a suitable one as some of the candidates mentioned above have developed cold feet in the last few days.
The TRS did approach Professor Nageshwar to offer him their support but he rejected it as he believed it wouldn’t help him but would hurt him.
Finally the party decided to field Surabhi Vani Devi , the daughter of PV Narasimha Rao as their candidate. She is a noted social worker, activist and founder of the Sri Venkateshwara group of educational institutions.
This certainly is an ‘out of the box ‘candidate. Her nomination came as a surprise to many TRS leaders and workers as her name wasn’t even being discussed till 21st Feb. Perhaps the TRS fields her not being a politician could help her deflect much of the anti-incumbency, the lack of time she has to campaign is certainly an impediment. TRS ministers and MLAs and even KTR himself may be forced to campaign to ensure a respectable result if not victory.
The TRS will field Palla Rajeshwar Reddy again from NWK for which he had started campaigning months ago. NWK is a seat which the TRS has a good chance of winning due to the hard work and effort being put up by the candidate and the party leaders.
Contrast this with the other seat where even by 21st February the TRS has no candidate to showcase and no TRS leader has hit the ground to campaign for their candidate/party.
Many INC leaders too fancied their chances as anti-incumbency against the TRS is high among many graduates and teachers as the recent elections have shown. Ex MLA Jeevan Reddy’s victory by 40000 votes just 3 months after the assembly elections last year too has given hope to many of them.
The INC finally decided upon S Ramulu Naik and G Chinna Reddy to contest from these seats.
NWK has many ST (Especially Lambada) voters and that’s why Ramulu Naik who was an active participant in the Telangana movement was fielded, the fact that he who was once a founding member of TRS has been a boost to him. The INC hopes he can secure votes from not just members of his community but even disillusioned core TRS supporters, unemployed graduates and government employees.
G Chinna Reddy is an ex minister and MLA from Wanaparthy.
The fact that INC took so long to decide their candidate when most other candidates are already in the middle of campaigning will definitely hurt their prospects. There are some who announced their candidacy and have been working from last year!
The TRS MLC has already taken part in many rallies all over NWK by now and has been working for months even before his candidature was confirmed and so has the BJP in HRM which is very actively working on ground.
To add to the problems of Telangana Congress, many rejected leaders are either sulking and uninterested in campaigning or have made up their minds to contest as rebels.
The INC must put up a good fight in both the constituencies if they can’t win one to help their chances in Nagarjuna Sagar .
The BJP has fielded the current incumbent N Ramachander Rao again from HRM constituency. He is the clear favourite to win as of now seeing the upsurge in BJP support in Hyderabad, not to mention his months of hard work and voter mobilisation. But one must not forget that last time he had the support of the entire opposition unlike this time.
G Premender Reddy, BJP state general secretary will be contesting from NWK constituency. He will be counting upon the votes of youth and first time voters to win.
The BJP has been working hard to mobilize and win over graduates especially teachers and unemployed ones in both constituencies. District units have been asked to make one worker incharge of 25 voters and go on ground and meet workers in person.
Tarun Chugh ,the Telangana BJP incharge has been instructing and teaching BJP leaders on how to approach and win over voters. He has been holding frequent review meetings with local BJP leaders from time to time. According to BJP leaders, their target is not just to retain the Mahbubnagar-Hyderabad-Rangareddy graduates’ constituency, but to emerge victorious with a wide margin. The party has already roped in its Sangh Parivar outfits, including ABVP, teachers’ unions, community wings and so on, to reach out to the graduate voters.
The party has appointed in-charges for all the 600 booths in the segment, in addition to the existing booth, mandal, and district-level committees of Assembly election teams. Each of these committees has nearly 20 active members. The party has instructed the in-charges to meet the graduate voters on a day-to-day basis.
Influential and well-known public figures and personalities like M Kodandaram, Cheruku Sudhakar and C Naveen Kumar aka teenmar mallanna too are contesting this time. Professor Kodandaram and Naveen kumar have been campaigning for months even going to small villages seeking votes.
The Professor was once the head of TJAC an org. of parties and NGOs which fought for a separate state and has tremendous goodwill among the common public of Telangana especially those who took part in the movement.
The well-known political analyst and 2 time MLC Professor Nageshwar who won from the HRM constituency in 2009 but didn’t contest in 2015 is also contesting this time. The CPI and CPM have already announced their support to him.
He is expected to give a good fight to the incumbent BJP MLC ,he was offered the support of the TRS but rejected it fearing that the massive anti incumbency could hurt him. He also received endorsements from teacher unions and expects the votes of many unemployed graduates
2021 Candidate List
The three major parties are not only keeping an eye on the public pulse but also on the activities and campaigning of each other not to mention the intelligence and police updates the TRS receives.
The TRS must be delighted to see so many strong opposition candidates contesting from NWK constituency, this could lead to a break up of the opposition vote and ensure that only 30-40% of votes will be enough to help P Rajeshwar Reddy scrape through.
B) Nagarjuna sagar by polls
Nagarjuna Sagar is a constituency which borders Andhra Pradesh and is part of Nalgonda district. It is separated from AP by the Krishna river. The TRS won this seat in 2018 but after the passing away of the MLA Nonnula Narasimaiah on December 4th, a byelection is expected to happen soon. The EC notification could come out any day.
This is without doubt the most important election in the next few months. This election is a MUST WIN for the Congress to show that old Nalgonda district is still a Congress adda and that they are still prominent in Telangana. If the INC wins this and appoints a dynamic new leader as the TPCC, they can successfully turn the tide, renew morale of their supporters and emerge as the main opposition again and prove they can defeat the TRS all over Telangana.
If the TRS wins this, it can successfully turn around the perception that people are turning against it and prove KCR is still popular.
The BJP’s aim will be to come number 2 or retain it’s deposit as unlike Dubbaka or the GHMC, it has no base or strong leader to count upon to secure the anti incumbency vote. A good result will add weight to it’s tall claims that it is the future of Telangana.
The Tallest leader in this constituency is K Jana Reddy, a long time INC stalwart-minister & powerful leader in the district who has won 7 out of 9 times from this area losing twice only in 1994 & 2018. He is the longest serving cabinet minister in govt of Andhra Pradesh and has a long experience in government, party politics and administration. As per rumours, both the TRS and BJP are working very hard to convince him to defect to their party but till now such efforts have yielded no fruit.
Nagarjuna Sagar was a constituency created after the 2008 delimitation, before which it was known as Chalakurthy. Surveys carried out by parties and polling agencies reveal the constituency has a good number of Yadavs, Reddys, Lambada/Banjara Tribals and SCs (Especially Madigas)
As you can see, INC may never have crossed 50% in this constituency but it’s still considered to be an INC stronghold by default in public and political circles.
In the last 5 elections, INC was the SLP 4 times and it won more votes in this constituency compared to the TRS in 2019!
But there is also considerable opposition to Jana Reddy here especially among BCs which is why in 2018, the TDP votebase(mostly BCs) did not get transferred to the INC despite an alliance.
This means this constituency is not out of the reach for the INC as long as Jana reddy is part of the party.
The old TDP votebase of BCs (especially Yadavs) has mostly shifted to the TRS, the INC base is composed of Reddys & SCs.
The swing votes are expected to be the STs(mostly lambadas) and other BCs like Gouds, Rajakas and Mudirajus.
This constituency also had a considerable left wing support(CPI) and workers on ground till sometime back. Whether it still exists on ground or not I can’t say, the recently deceased TRS MLA was of a leftwing background and joined the TRS in 2014.
Barely a week after the MLA passed away, the Congress and TRS both started poll preparations.
The Main issue in the constituency is the surprising lack of development in this constituency and it’s backwardness despite it being near a tourist attraction and being represented by a high profile minister. This is why people decided to give KCR a chance in 2018 and defeated Jana Reddy.
The poor state of the constituency is a source of frustration for youth and people who have to migrate to make a living.
TRS preparation: -
After the shocks of Dubbaka and GHMC, KCR is taking nothing for granted. Rising anti-incumbency against the party is a fact and it’s uniform across the state.
The State government has announced 600 crores worth of construction works related to irrigation projects within the constituency. It has also decided to open a government degree college within the constituency.
There is talk of a ‘Special development plan’ being prepared for the constituency by the TRS and has held teleconferences with local leaders. All problems & pending of the constituency have been placed before KCR. He is personally monitoring the situation in the constituency and the entire poll strategy instead of delegating it to his son(GHMC) and nephew(Dubbaka)
The same KCR who didn’t bother campaigning for either the Huzurnagar bypoll or the Dubbaka bypoll came all the way to Haliya in Nagarjuna Sagar AC on 10th Feb before the EC notification even came out where he sounded the poll bugle.
He laid the foundation stone for 13 lift irrigation schemes for the united district with an outlay of 2500 crores and further promised not to seek votes if he doesn’t complete these schemes by the time of the next election.He promised to allot 1000 crores for the welfare of SCs under a special fund and lashed out at the INC blaming it for lack of development in the constituency.
He aggressively lambasted the opposition and described INC leaders as vultures,BJP leaders as beggars and termed protesting BJP workers at the rallies as dogs and first time beggars.
He sought to remind voters of his achievements and compared his welfare schemes to that of the INC. He promised to sanction 10 crore for Nalgonda municipality, Rs 5 crore for Miryalaguda municipality and Rs 1 crore each for other municipalities. He said Rs 30 lakh each will be released for mandal headquarters towns and Rs 20 lakh each for 844 gram panchayats in the district. This adds up to around 186 crores.
This speech was not just a rally for Nagarjunasagar but for the NWK MLC seat as well.
And this is only what has been promised Look at this link to see what all the TRS has done from then till now -> https://www.thehansindia.com/editors-desk/sagar-by-poll-will-congress-have-the-last-laugh-667193
But the TRS made numerous promises in 2018 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, promising to fulfil them now let alone complete them doesn’t mean it can win votes so easily, there are other irrigation projects like Srisailam left bank which have been pending for the last 7 years.
KCR recognises that INC is the real competitor here and has directed TRS leaders to ignore BJP and target only congress and Jana Reddy. TRS leaders are aggressively following his orders and have given light jibes towards the BJP.
Jagadish Reddy who is a close confidant of KCR and district in charge minister is the one who has taken the burden of victory upon his shoulders. The TRS lost both MP seats in the district in 2019 under his supervision. If he fails to live up to KCR’s expectations, it would further hurt his standing in the party and cabinet.
The TRS is yet to decide a candidate, the party is still in consultation with cadre and senior leaders and is going through all prospective candidates: -
1) Tera Chinnappa Reddy, MLC and industrialist who has contested from Nalgonda LS in 2014 and Nagarjuna Sagar in 2009 under the TDP. Has local support and known in the area.
2) Gutta Sukhender Reddy , Legislative council chairman and well known face in the entire Nalgonda District.
3) Nomula Bhagat , the son of the recently deceased MLA
4) NC Koti Reddy, close follower of Jagadish Reddy
5) Gaddampally Ravinder Reddy, recently returned from US and has been with the TRS since inception
6) Ramchandru Naik , Lambada-ST,non controversial leader
The candidate is most likely to be a local, many Yadav groups and cadre want the TRS to field a Golla/Yadav candidate from the seat this time as the recently deceased MLA too was a Yadav. But Nomula Bhagat despite being the strongest Yadav leader in the area has no easy chance of victory if he is fielded. Nepotism was rejected by Dubbaka, what proof is there that Nagarjunasagar won’t do the same?
The TRS should also do what it can to keep it’s flock together, a disunited party going into polls could lead to a nightmarish outcome.
Congress preparation: -
The INC is doing what it can to hold on to K Jana Reddy, not just that it needs to show that it cannot only fight for the constituency but also take on the TRS and counter it.
The Congress party is taking this election very seriously. They have even postponed announcement of a new PCC chief on the request of Jana Reddy who felt that any such announcement would lead to dissent in the party and the winning chances of the party candidate in the by-election would be adversely affected.
It is more or less obvious that the final candidate will either be Jana Reddy or one of his sons who will make this campaign about KCR’s promises and failings. Jana Reddy has already hit the ground and has been campaigning and meeting with cadre since January.
But Jana Reddy’s son may not receive the same love and affection his father has received as per this reporter, the youth aren’t keen to see a dynast elected from the constituency and he lacks the aura and experience of his father as per this reporter ->https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/090221/cong-banks-on-jana-TRS-and-BJP-look-for-strong-candidates.html
Komatireddy Venkat Reddy,ex MLA from Nalgonda and current MP from Bhongir has already made it clear that the burden of victory in nagarjuna sagar falls upon him.
It is worthwhile mentioning that he also is a strong TPCC president probable and a very strong and well-known leader in Nalgonda district.
Uttam Kumar Reddy the current MP from Nalgonda, Revanth Reddy, Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka and other Inc leaders too are expected to campaign and work hard for INC’s victory here.
Both the INC and TRS will depute leaders to campaign in lambada thandas,villages and palles based on their caste in the coming days. The INC must work hard and showcase unity if it wants to win and keep their flock together in the constituency till election day.
BJP preparation: -
A couple of weeks back, their plan was to convince K Jana Reddy to join BJP because unlike Dubbaka they have no leader here and unlike Hyderabad they have no history or cadre here. But as he decided to stay put with the Congress they are searching for a candidate of their own. They have gotten some of his followers to join the BJP but I doubt it would help them.
The BJP is aware that an INC victory in Nagarjuna Sagar will galvanise the party and help the INC re-establish itself as the chief opposition and re-enter the public image as a suitable competitor.
They are putting efforts over here to win over voters and recruit cadre. A strong social media outreach has commenced with a Facebook page for every mandal in Nagarjuna Sagar constituency and the creation+reactivating of booth-level WhatsApp groups for online campaigning.
Bandi Sanjay even started a ‘Girijana Bharosa Yatra’ to win over the hearts and votes of the ST-Lambada community in the united district of Nalgonda to protest over the encroaching of tribal land by non tribals. This later resulted in a tense situation leading to a lathi charge.
The BJP has not decided it’s candidate yet, it may decide it’s candidate for the constituency after the TRS makes up it’s mind and taking social and caste representation into consideration or even convince any unhappy TRS probable to defect and contest on their symbol.
1)Vijayshanti, the BJP believes that fielding a celebrity will help it get good coverage and large rallies which will increase its voteshare
2)K Niveditha Reddy, contestant in 2018 and wife of Nalgonda district BJP head
3)Kadiri Anjaiah Yadav , TDP contestant in 2014
4) KomatiReddy Rajgopal Reddy, the current INC MLA from Munugode and one who has made no qualms of the fact that he believes that BJP has a brighter future in Telangana taking on the TRS. He has neither confirmed or denied reports that he plans to leave the INC to join BJP.
All three parties are seeking to carry out defections of local block level or panchayat leaders from the other parties.
C)GWMC (Greater Warangal Municipal Corporation) Elections
Warangal is the second largest city in Telangana with a population of more than 8 lakhs. Warangal city and its adjoining areas/suburbs are growing fast and was witnessing increased economic activities pre-covid. By virtue of being centrally located in the state ,it is well connected by rail and road.
It is home to a NIT and is making steady progress in the field of information technology . It is the district headquarters of Warangal rural and urban district.
The municipal corporation was upgraded to a ‘Greater Corporation’ in 2015 by the Telangana government.
The Warangal corporation has more than 6 lakh voters 7 and comprises an area of 407 sq km.
As per the 2011 census, 83.41% of Warangal is Hindu with Muslims comprising 14.39% and Christians at 1.65%.
The corporation holds around 58 wards. 19 wards are reserved for BCs ,9 for SCs & 2 for Sts with 28 belonging to Open category. BCs are the majority of the city forming at least 55%+ of the population.
The seat of the next mayor of Warangal has been reserved for BCs(general).
It witnessed a voter turnout of 60.3% in 2016.
The present mayor of the city is Gunda Prakash Rao and the deputy mayor is Khaja Sirajuddin both of whom belong to the TRS
The TRS swept the election here, this was no surprise as Warangal city & Kakatiya university were one of the focal points of the Telangana movement protests and agitations which lead to the formation of Telangana State. This made the city a TRS fortress by nature . Most of the TDP cadre and voters shifted loyalties by 2014 itself to the TRS. Both these seats were contested by the BJP in 2014.
Both mlas in Warangal(Warangal east & Warangal west) belong to the TRS along with the MP.
The BJP which supported the formation of TG will be looking to outdo its performance compared to last time and get more than the Congress which needs to win a respectable number to retain its leaders here.
As you can see, the BJP increased its performance by 10% in the lok sabha election despite having a weak base and losing some workers to TRS tills 2018. Its base has strengthened now thanks to defections from what was left of Warangal TDP unit & some Warangal congress leaders.
There is anti incumbency among youth and teachers just like in Hyderabad. It is yet to be seen how all parties plan to deal or take advantage of it. There is a lot of discontentment among people over the LRS which hurt the TRS heavily in the GHMC polls.
The TRS is counting upon Minister Errabelli Dayakar Rao along with its MLAs to lead the party to victory here along with the local MLAs and needs to win heavily over here to prove that Warangal city is still its fortress. It has made overtures to BCs and minorities.
The TRS has to deal with anti incumbency against some incumbent corporators to retain this municipality.
The Warangal Congress will be depending upon its DCC president Naini Rajender reddy to lead them forward along with the new TPCC chief who should be decided within a month.
The BJP buoyed and enthused by its recent success in the GHMC plans a statewide yatra lead by Bandi Sanjay to win over youth and core telangana voters from the TRS. Kishen reddy visiting the city today will discuss the strategy with the cadre and local leaders.
Be prepared to see BJP and TRS leaders argue over how much help the city has received from the Union Government.
Just like Hyderabad,the BJP will try to take Telangana BC voters away from the TRS in large numbers.
D) KMC (Khammam municipal corporation)
Khammam is the 4th largest city in Telangana and lies in the easternmost part of Telangana. It lies alongside the Munneru river. Unlike Warangal or most of North Telangana which was a hotbed of the Telangana movement, Khammam belonged to the polar opposite. Khammam district is right besides Andhra Pradesh and despite being part of telangana before independence, the city and the district is closer to Amaravati than to Hyderabad by road and by culture.
The Municipality was upgraded to a corporation in 2012. The Khammam municipal corporation has a voter electorate of more than 2.40 lakhs and covers an area of 94.37 square kms. The city holds a sizeable proportion of Kammas,Muslims and BC voters. It holds around 50 divisions, 2 seats are reserved for STs,6 for SCs & 17 for BCs. The position of the next mayor of khammam will be OC-female.The current mayor is Guguloth Papalal (ST) and Deputy Mayor is Bathula Murali Prasad.
Khammam district was once & still has strong communist presence including the city and the Kamma community is considered to be very influential in the city & district.
The assembly seat contains Khammam municipal corporation & some outskirt areas.
Khammam city and district was against bifurcation and hence YSRCP and TDP were very strong here. YSRCP which was openly pro United AP won khammam LS seat. The reason why TDP got less votes in the assembly compared to the Lok Sabha was because both the TDP candidates worked hard to sabotage each other as they shared a mutual dislike of each other. TRS was quite weak here with barely 7% of the votes, even the CPI has performed better in the khammam assembly compared to it. KCR noticed this, he and his son worked hard to change it and they succeeded.
TRS engineered large scale defections from the opposition starting with Tummala Nageswara Rao. They made heavy inroads among the local BCs,STs,Velamas and Kammas. Led by KTR & Tummala Nageswara rao, TRS convinced the people of the importance of a double engine government and hence they won a majority of 34 wards. The TRS performed well among forward castes and BCs.
The registered voter turnout was 67.68%
An opposition in chaos couldn’t win. TDP lost many leaders to TRS and BJP lost its deposit in 10/11 wards. YSRCP hurt the Congress party in some segments. After these results, Puvvada Ajay Kumar defected to the TRS. Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy and the rest of the YSRCP unit in Telangana merged outright with the TRS.
The TRS convinced cadre and leaders from TDP,INC,YSRCP and the Left to join them throughout old Khammam district. Now let us look at the 2018 Assembly and 2019 LS results
What this shows is a complete turnaround in the fortunes of the TRS as we can see, a LS seat and assembly seat where it couldn’t retain its deposits 5 years back. It performed better in the Khammam Lok Sabha and Assembly despite losing its North Telangana strongholds of Nizamabad and Karimnagar.
After the 2018 results, Nama Nageswara Rao joined the TRS. Both the leading candidates in the assembly seat are Kammas, this is a measure of the power and influence this community holds here.
The TRS in new Khammam district has 4 major camps lead by 4 leaders.
1)Tummala Nageswara Rao,ex minister and ex mla
2)Nama Nageswara Rao ,MP
3)Puvvada Ajay Kumar,Transport minister
4)Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy, ex MP.
Even though Puvvada Ajay Kumar has taken the lead in ensuring a TRS victory and KTR is expected to campaign here, all major camps and leaders have to be satisfied and work in coordination to ensure a TRS victory..
KTR has already met Ponguleti Srinivas Reddy who rumours say has been contacted by BJP. Tummala Nageswara Rao has already made it clear he won’t leave TRS as of now. Those who have read the MLC polls part above will see that Ponguleti is aspiring for a MLC seat. KTR too has been working hard to expand and get some IT companies here.
INC is the primary opposition here and CLP leader Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka is expected to play an important role here in the campaigning of the INC. They plan to take advantage of unemployment, anger over LRS and anti incumbency against TRS to win this corporation.
The TDP and Left still have a sizeable amount of cadre and voters here and are expected to work hard to attain a respectable number of seats. The TDP will be counting upon its lone MLA in the district Mecha Nageswara Rao to campaign here and may even get the TDP supremo or his son to campaign over here. The YSRCP is not expected to contest here despite putting up a decent performance just 6 years ago.
The BJP is expected to convince leaders of other parties to defect to it and will bring up local issues to win over anti incumbent voters. Unlike Hyderabad, Hindutva is not expected to have many takers over here as relations between Muslims and Hindus is amicable