On the day of November 11th 2020 post the Bihar election results which I had got it right by a whisker I started a Twitter thread on Bengal saying Trinamool would win 152 seats and form the Government in 2021. But much water has flown down the Hooghly river in the last 50 days.
BJP had done the homework well but that turning point was not happening in favour of BJP. There was anger on the streets against Mamata but the biggest question was how could the BJP consolidate the anger not just into votes but also into seats.
That is where Mamata started to dig her own grave. Giving prominence to her nephew and putting all eggs on the basket of Prashant Kishore had alienated some of the powerful leaders of Trinamool.
I had predicted by 13/11/2020 that a mouth-watering moment is waiting for BJP with a storm brewing over the dissent by Suvendhu Adhikari.
West Begal Election Update: What Suvendhu Adhikari Leaving TMC means?
The way Adhikari’s dissent was handled by TMC leaders was absolutely churlish to say the least. BJP itself was finding it difficult to touch the magical figure of 148 at Bengal assembly and Adhikari by himself could never dream of dislodging Trinamool but the coming together of Adhikari to BJP was the tipping point.
Adhikari not only wields influence in the 16 seats of his home district Midnapore but his sway extends over 7 to 8 districts. He can make a difference in over 40+ seats if not more.
Amit Shah clinched what can be termed as the moment of reckoning by inducting Suvendhu Adhikari personally in his presence into the party. With his entry not only has BJP got a credible local Bengali firebrand face but also got the momentum in its favour.
Suvendhu is fast turning out to be similar to Himanta Dada in Assam. His rhetoric and ability to articulate in Bengali by highlighting the colossal failures of the TMC Government is turning out to be a game changer for BJP. We can see jitters in the TMC camp and as we move along we could see several more desertions from TMC to BJP in Bengal.
Seats which BJP could have been lost by wafer thin margins are now coming into BJP’s kitty. With Owaisi throwing his hat into the ring Mamata cannot claim monopoly over the minority vote which would get cut by MIM albeit in a small manner.
There are several people who are apprehensive of violence and booth capturing by the ruling Trinamool but I am of the firm opinion that no party can capture or hold on to power in India through these nefarious methods anymore. Indian elections are not the same what we had seen in 1980’s and 1990’s when we could see large scale booth capturing and thereby winning elections.
We often term in politics that the outcome of the game depends on who makes the last mistake and now series of blunders are committed by TMC which can be seen from the tone, tenor and body language of the CM herself.
West Begal Election Update: What is the present mood of the People?
Few opinion polls are giving a decisive majority to BJP and I would not be surprised if we see BJP touching 200 seats in Bengal although many pollsters are giving BJP a range from 135 to 175 seats.
As long as BJP goes about doing its job in a diligent manner and ensure that core Hindu voters who are fed up with TMC, INC & Left turn up to the polling booths and cast their votes then it is going to be Saffron Flag flying high in Bangla.
Yes there are 57 seats in Bengal which has over 40% Muslim population but I am sanguine that Bengalis are looking for a real change after the failed promise of ‘Paribartan’ by Mamata in 2011. We should also see counter polarisation of Hindu votes in favour of BJP.
The verdict of Bengal has always been decisive and hence I expect a Tsunami for BJP in West Bengal in 2021. In the words of Dr. Praveen Patil, “Late Shyam Prasad Mukherji should be smiling from somewhere in the skies seeing the saffron surge in Bengal.”
The prophecy of Ex-Governor of Nagaland and Former Director of Intelligence Bureau Shyamal Datta who said years ago that Bengal will take to BJP to such heights which like no other state had done. That moment is coming true and West Bengal is all set to become a next Saffron State by May 2021.