Gujarat since 2 decades has seen a complete dominance. Indian National Congress has been trying hard to dismantle the saffron fortress. The absence of 3rd front has more often benefited Bhartiya Janata Party. However, in last assembly election, that is in 2017, Congress made a huge comeback and almost reached to point of conquering the throne of Gujarat.
Of 182 Assembly seats, BJP managed to win 99 seats, 16 seats less than what it had won in 2012 Gujarat Assembly Election under then Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. Indian National Congress won 77 seats and it was able to increase its tally from 61 in 2012 to 77 in 2017. However, the absence of 3rd front in state was clearly visible.
However, in just 18 months, Congress lost all the momentum that it had gained in Assembly 2017 election. In Lok Sabha 2019 election, BJP won all the 26 Lok Sabha seats. Not only this, BJP increased its vote share from 49% in 2017 to 62% in 2019. INC on the other hand lost almost 10% vote share that is from 41.4% to 32% in Lok Sabha 2019.
Just in span of 18 months, Congress created a political void in Gujarat, a lack of strong opposition. This political void created by INC Gujarat is now being filled by Aam Aadmi Party. AAP in 2017 had only 0.1% vote share and had lost its deposit in almost all the seats. The party did not contest 2019 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, however, since 2017 AAP has been trying to establish itself as a force in Gujarat.
The recent Gujarat Municipal Election is an evident of rise of Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat and downfall of INC in Gujarat. On 21st February elections to six Municipal Corporations- Ahmedabad, Surat, Rajkot, Vadodara, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar- were held. The election saw overall voting of 41.2%. The results of the elections were declared on 23rd February.
Gujarat Election: Gujarat Municipal Election 2015 Result
In last Gujarat Municipal Corporation election, BJP won all 6 corporation, however, it has lost number of seats in all the corporations. Here is the result of Gujarat Municipal Election 2015 (Source: Wikipedia)
Gujarat Election: Gujarat Municipal Election 2021 Result
BJP won all 6 Corporations and also increased its tally in all 6 of them. In 2015 BJP had won 389 seats while Congress had won 176 seats. Independents won 7 seats.
Gujarat Municipal Election 2021: Rise of Aam Aadmi Party
Aam Aadmi Party has been trying to make a political break through in different parts of India. However, in last 6-7 years it has been confined to Delhi and some parts of Punjab. However, as Congress is losing its grip over most of the states, AAP is gradually trying to fill the vacuum of opposition to BJP.
Gujarat Municipal election is one example where AAP has shown its intent to become a force in future. The Aam Aadmi Party is contesting its first civic polls in Gujarat.
The performance of party as of now has been pretty good as compared to that of Congress. The trends are encouraging for the debutants as AAP as it is leading in 18 seats in Surat as of now. The trend is evident that AAP has been able to lure the Patidar voters to its fold. It must be noted that Patidar leader Hardik Patel had joined Congress and is the current Gujarat Congress Chief.
Surat Municipal Corporation has a total of 120 seats. In 2015, BJP had won 80 seats while Congress had won 36 seats. This time as per the latest trend, BJP won 93 seats while Congress failed to open its account. AAP won 27 seats in Surat.
This opening for AAP in Gujarat will help them rise in state where BJP has had a sole control since 2 decades.