Let me first quote what I wrote down below earlier:-
“The candidate is most likely to be a local, many Yadav groups and cadre want the TRS to field a Golla/Yadav candidate from the seat this time as the recently deceased MLA too was a Yadav. But Nomula Bhagat despite being the strongest Yadav leader in the area has no easy chance of victory if he is fielded. Nepotism was rejected by Dubbaka, what proof is there that Nagarjunasagar won’t do the same?”
KCR after carrying out multiple surveys in the constituency and receiving reports from local leaders has rightly come to the conclusion to field a Yadav Candidate this time as BCs(Especially Yadavs) are the base of the party in the seat. Add to that giving a Reddy Candidate the ticket would anger BC groups giving a big opening to the BJP.
In the last 7 elections, 6/7 times have seen Jana Reddy squaring off with a Yadav candidate. Normally, Nomula Bhagat would have been fielded. But after the shock in Dubbaka KCR isn’t taking a risk. Nomula Narasimaiah won the support of the locals due to being pro poor(his communist past played a role in this) and a well known face in the area despite being a non-local, that isn’t the case with Bhagat who despite being well known is still a novice who has to prove himself.
TRS has decided not to field any of the senior leaders of the district has narrowed down on 3 local level leaders from the constituency .There is a 90% chance of one of the three being fielded if KCR doesn’t change his mind due to last minute lobbying or surveys :-
1)Peddaboyina Srinivas Yadav
2)Mannem Ranjith Yadav
3)Katteboyina Guravaiah Yadav
Among these 3 Katteboyina Guruvaiah Yadav has the highest chances of being fielded. He is the son in law of G Rama murthy who was the TDP MLA contestant in this constituency for 3 times (1994-2004) and won in 1994 riding on the back of the NTR wave. He is also closely related to other BC political leaders such as TRS Rajya Sabha MP Badugula Lingaiah Yadav and an influential TDP ex MLA and business baron from AP Beeda Mastan Rao.
Now another problem for the TRS emerges on how to handle the dejected leaders like Koti Reddy,Gutta Sukhender Reddy and Tera Chinappa Reddy. Tera Chinappa Reddy first contested Nagarjuna Sagar in 2009 when babu invited him to join TDP and lost, he has been eyeing this constituency since then. Atleast he is an MLC, the same can’t be said for Koti Reddy who was also lobbying heavily for a ticket.
The TRS will have to work carefully to make sure it’s lot stays together as the BJP may try to convince one of them to defect and contest on their ticket. Jana Reddy has been campaigning in the constituency for months and TRS leaders too have been working on ground reminding the public of their welfare schemes and development projects initiated.
Every mandal in the seat has been assigned a MLA incharge by KTR who have been instructed to stay there till voting is complete in the constituency. Like the TRS, even the BJP is in a dilemma on deciding which candidate they should field. Tarun Chugh the Telangana BJP in-charge visited the constituency on Feb 25th to assess the on ground situation and meet with local functionaries of the party to lay out a strategy.
It is clear that the BJP is waiting for the TRS to pronounce it’s candidate so that it can then try to convince a trs leader to defect and/or field a candidate based on the prevailing caste dynamics.
News has spread that Kadari Anjaiah Yadav who contested on a TDP ticket in 2014 and won 29,000 votes is considering defecting to the TRS if he isn’t given a ticket. Seeing as TRS is most likely to nominate a BC Yadav, he is working hard to seek a ticket or a post from the party.
Nagarjuna Sagar By election Previous Updates
Nagarjuna Sagar is a constituency which borders Andhra Pradesh and is part of Nalgonda district. It is separated from AP by the Krishna river. The TRS won this seat in 2018 but after the passing away of the MLA Nonnula Narasimaiah on December 4th, a byelection is expected to happen soon. The EC notification could come out any day. This is without doubt the most important election in the next few months.
This election is a MUST WIN for the Congress to show that old Nalgonda district is still a Congress adda and that they are still prominent in Telangana. If the INC wins this and appoints a dynamic new leader as the TPCC, they can successfully turn the tide, renew morale of their supporters and emerge as the main opposition again and prove they can defeat the TRS all over Telangana. If the TRS wins this, it can successfully turn around the perception that people are turning against it and prove KCR is still popular.
The BJP’s aim will be to come number 2 or retain it’s deposit as unlike Dubbaka or the GHMC, it has no base or strong leader to count upon to secure the anti incumbency vote. A good result will add weight to it’s tall claims that it is the future of Telangana.
The Tallest leader in this constituency is K Jana Reddy, a long time INC stalwart-minister & powerful leader in the district who has won 7 out of 9 times from this area losing twice only in 1994 & 2018. He is the longest serving cabinet minister in govt of Andhra Pradesh and has a long experience in government, party politics and administration. As per rumours, both the TRS and BJP are working very hard to convince him to defect to their party but till now such efforts have yielded no fruit.
Nagarjuna Sagar was a constituency created after the 2008 delimitation, before which it was known as Chalakurthy. Surveys carried out by parties and polling agencies reveal the constituency has a good number of Yadavs, Reddys, Lambada/Banjara Tribals and SCs (Especially Madigas)
As you can see, INC may never have crossed 50% in this constituency but it’s still considered to be an INC stronghold by default in public and political circles. In the last 5 elections, INC was the SLP 4 times and it won more votes in this constituency compared to the TRS in 2019!
But there is also considerable opposition to Jana Reddy here especially among BCs which is why in 2018, the TDP votebase(mostly BCs) did not get transferred to the INC despite an alliance. This means this constituency is not out of the reach for the INC as long as Jana reddy is part of the party.
The old TDP votebase of BCs (especially Yadavs) has mostly shifted to the TRS, the INC base is composed of Reddys & SCs. The swing votes are expected to be the STs(mostly lambadas) and other BCs like Gouds, Rajakas and Mudirajus.
This constituency also had a considerable left wing support(CPI) and workers on ground till sometime back. Whether it still exists on ground or not I can’t say, the recently deceased TRS MLA was of a leftwing background and joined the TRS in 2014. Barely a week after the MLA passed away, the Congress and TRS both started poll preparations.
The Main issue in the constituency is the surprising lack of development in this constituency and it’s backwardness despite it being near a tourist attraction and being represented by a high profile minister. This is why people decided to give KCR a chance in 2018 and defeated Jana Reddy. The poor state of the constituency is a source of frustration for youth and people who have to migrate to make a living.
TRS preparation: -
After the shocks of Dubbaka and GHMC, KCR is taking nothing for granted. Rising anti-incumbency against the party is a fact and it’s uniform across the state.
The State government has announced 600 crores worth of construction works related to irrigation projects within the constituency. It has also decided to open a government degree college within the constituency.
There is talk of a ‘Special development plan’ being prepared for the constituency by the TRS and has held teleconferences with local leaders. All problems & pending of the constituency have been placed before KCR. He is personally monitoring the situation in the constituency and the entire poll strategy instead of delegating it to his son(GHMC) and nephew(Dubbaka)
The same KCR who didn’t bother campaigning for either the Huzurnagar bypoll or the Dubbaka bypoll came all the way to Haliya in Nagarjuna Sagar AC on 10th Feb before the EC notification even came out where he sounded the poll bugle.
He laid the foundation stone for 13 lift irrigation schemes for the united district with an outlay of 2500 crores and further promised not to seek votes if he doesn’t complete these schemes by the time of the next election.He promised to allot 1000 crores for the welfare of SCs under a special fund and lashed out at the INC blaming it for lack of development in the constituency.
He aggressively lambasted the opposition and described INC leaders as vultures,BJP leaders as beggars and termed protesting BJP workers at the rallies as dogs and first time beggars.
He sought to remind voters of his achievements and compared his welfare schemes to that of the INC. He promised to sanction 10 crore for Nalgonda municipality, Rs 5 crore for Miryalaguda municipality and Rs 1 crore each for other municipalities. He said Rs 30 lakh each will be released for mandal headquarters towns and Rs 20 lakh each for 844 gram panchayats in the district. This adds up to around 186 crores.
This speech was not just a rally for Nagarjunasagar but for the NWK MLC seat as well.
And this is only what has been promised Look at this link to see what all the TRS has done from then till now -> https://www.thehansindia.com/editors-desk/sagar-by-poll-will-congress-have-the-last-laugh-667193
But the TRS made numerous promises in 2018 Assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, promising to fulfil them now let alone complete them doesn’t mean it can win votes so easily, there are other irrigation projects like Srisailam left bank which have been pending for the last 7 years.
KCR recognises that INC is the real competitor here and has directed TRS leaders to ignore BJP and target only congress and Jana Reddy. TRS leaders are aggressively following his orders and have given light jibes towards the BJP.
Jagadish Reddy who is a close confidant of KCR and district in charge minister is the one who has taken the burden of victory upon his shoulders. The TRS lost both MP seats in the district in 2019 under his supervision. If he fails to live up to KCR’s expectations, it would further hurt his standing in the party and cabinet.
The TRS is yet to decide a candidate, the party is still in consultation with cadre and senior leaders and is going through all prospective candidates: -
1) Tera Chinnappa Reddy, MLC and industrialist who has contested from Nalgonda LS in 2014 and Nagarjuna Sagar in 2009 under the TDP. Has local support and known in the area.
2) Gutta Sukhender Reddy , Legislative council chairman and well known face in the entire Nalgonda District.
3) Nomula Bhagat , the son of the recently deceased MLA
4) NC Koti Reddy, close follower of Jagadish Reddy
5) Gaddampally Ravinder Reddy, recently returned from US and has been with the TRS since inception
6) Ramchandru Naik , Lambada-ST,non controversial leader
The candidate is most likely to be a local, many Yadav groups and cadre want the TRS to field a Golla/Yadav candidate from the seat this time as the recently deceased MLA too was a Yadav. But Nomula Bhagat despite being the strongest Yadav leader in the area has no easy chance of victory if he is fielded. Nepotism was rejected by Dubbaka, what proof is there that Nagarjunasagar won’t do the same?
The TRS should also do what it can to keep it’s flock together, a disunited party going into polls could lead to a nightmarish outcome.
Congress preparation: -
The INC is doing what it can to hold on to K Jana Reddy, not just that it needs to show that it cannot only fight for the constituency but also take on the TRS and counter it.
The Congress party is taking this election very seriously. They have even postponed announcement of a new PCC chief on the request of Jana Reddy who felt that any such announcement would lead to dissent in the party and the winning chances of the party candidate in the by-election would be adversely affected.
It is more or less obvious that the final candidate will either be Jana Reddy or one of his sons who will make this campaign about KCR’s promises and failings. Jana Reddy has already hit the ground and has been campaigning and meeting with cadre since January.
But Jana Reddy’s son may not receive the same love and affection his father has received as per this reporter, the youth aren’t keen to see a dynast elected from the constituency and he lacks the aura and experience of his father as per this reporter ->https://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/politics/090221/cong-banks-on-jana-TRS-and-BJP-look-for-strong-candidates.html
Komatireddy Venkat Reddy,ex MLA from Nalgonda and current MP from Bhongir has already made it clear that the burden of victory in nagarjuna sagar falls upon him.
It is worthwhile mentioning that he also is a strong TPCC president probable and a very strong and well-known leader in Nalgonda district.
Uttam Kumar Reddy the current MP from Nalgonda, Revanth Reddy, Mallu Bhatti Vikramarka and other Inc leaders too are expected to campaign and work hard for INC’s victory here.
Both the INC and TRS will depute leaders to campaign in lambada thandas,villages and palles based on their caste in the coming days. The INC must work hard and showcase unity if it wants to win and keep their flock together in the constituency till election day.
BJP preparation: -
A couple of weeks back, their plan was to convince K Jana Reddy to join BJP because unlike Dubbaka they have no leader here and unlike Hyderabad they have no history or cadre here. But as he decided to stay put with the Congress they are searching for a candidate of their own. They have gotten some of his followers to join the BJP but I doubt it would help them.
The BJP is aware that an INC victory in Nagarjuna Sagar will galvanise the party and help the INC re-establish itself as the chief opposition and re-enter the public image as a suitable competitor.
They are putting efforts over here to win over voters and recruit cadre. A strong social media outreach has commenced with a Facebook page for every mandal in Nagarjuna Sagar constituency and the creation+reactivating of booth-level WhatsApp groups for online campaigning.
Bandi Sanjay even started a ‘Girijana Bharosa Yatra’ to win over the hearts and votes of the ST-Lambada community in the united district of Nalgonda to protest over the encroaching of tribal land by non tribals. This later resulted in a tense situation leading to a lathi charge.
The BJP has not decided it’s candidate yet, it may decide it’s candidate for the constituency after the TRS makes up it’s mind and taking social and caste representation into consideration or even convince any unhappy TRS probable to defect and contest on their symbol.
1)Vijayshanti, the BJP believes that fielding a celebrity will help it get good coverage and large rallies which will increase its voteshare
2)K Niveditha Reddy, contestant in 2018 and wife of Nalgonda district BJP head
3)Kadiri Anjaiah Yadav , TDP contestant in 2014
4) KomatiReddy Rajgopal Reddy, the current INC MLA from Munugode and one who has made no qualms of the fact that he believes that BJP has a brighter future in Telangana taking on the TRS. He has neither confirmed or denied reports that he plans to leave the INC to join BJP.