Prashant Kishor was able to deliver the result that he had promised West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. He will be expected to deliver the similar result for Capt Amrinder Singh in 2022 Punjab Assembly election. Prashant Kishore has been appointed as the principle political advisor to Chief Minister of Punjab, Capt Amrinder Singh with Cabinet Rank.
However, the Congress in Punjab seems to be divided among two camps as of now, one Camp of Chief Minister Amrinder Singh and other the Camp of Navjot Singh Siddu. Since few days Navjot Singh Siddhu, former cabinet minister and senior Congress party leader has been attacking Capt Amrinder Singh for his inaction to take action against the Badals for Kotkapura firing incident. Recently Punjab CM has dared Siddhu to contest against him and he said that his former cabinet colleague will lose his deposit if he dares to contest against him. Siddhu on the other hand shared a 2016 video of Capt Amarinder “promising to send Badals to jail for Kotkapura firing incident.
In midst of all these fighting between Capt Amrinder and Siddhu, Prashant Kishor has announced that his retirement from election management work. This can be a shocker for Punjab CM as he was roped in Amrinder Singh as his political advisor. However, between all this drama, one must not forget how Congress got decimated in 4 of the 5 states that went for polls recently. For Congress to retain Punjab will be one of the biggest political task for 2022.
Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: Latest News
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Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: The current term of Capt Amrinder Singh government in Punjab will end on 18th March 2022. Since 2017 Capt. Amrinder Singh took oath as a Chief Minister of Punjab, he has seen many ups and downs in his popularity. Recent ratings of the Capt Amrinder Singh among the Best Chief Minister’s in India shows that his popularity in the state is the lowest among all the Chief Ministers.
The 2022 Punjab Assembly election is set to be a 4 cornered fight. Ruling Congress will be fighting to retain the state up against Aam Aadmi Party, Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP which used to be an ally of SAD in Punjab. Due Farm Law, BJP has been target of all the parties and are hoping to cash in from current negative environment created against BJP in Punjab.
The parties have already started their preparation for upcoming Punjab Assembly election. Punjab Congress Chief Sunil Jhakar has already made an announcement of contesting the 2022 Punjab Assembly election under the leadership of current Punjab CM Amrinder Singh. Tarun Chugh, BJP party general secretary said that BJP will be contesting the Punjab Assembly election all on its own. He clearly stated that party will be fighting on all the 117 seats of the states.
Punjab Assembly Election 2022: Result of 2017 Assembly Election
The result of the election was on the expected lines. Indian National Congress swept the election while ruling SAD-BJP faced a crushing defeat. Of 117 seats, the Congress won 77 seats, Shriomani Akali Dal won 15 seats and Bhartiya Janta Party could win only 3 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party won less than it was expected to, it won 22 seats on debut in the Punjab Assembly.
Capt Amrinder Singh who was then the Member of Parliament from Amritsar was projected as the CM candidate of Punjab by Congress.
What did the Opinion Polls Predicted before 2017 Assembly Election?
The Opinion Polls for the Punjab Assembly election 2017 were off the mark. Most of the Opinion Polls predicted Aam Aadmi party to emerge as the winner while some predicted hung assembly and very few predicted victory for Congress.
On January 2017, TV 24 news predicted Aam Aadmi party to win 75 seats, Congress to win 31 seats, SAD + BJP to win 22 seats.
On January 2017, Aajtak - Axis predicted Congress to win 63 seats, Aam Aadmi party to win 43 seats, SAD + BJP to win 13 seats.
On January 2017, ABP News - CSDS predicted Hung assembly and gave 51 seats to Congress, Aam Aadmi party to win 30 seats, SAD + BJP to win 32 seats.
On January 2017, Huff Post - C Voter predicted Congress to win 43 seats , Aam Aadmi Party to win 63 seat, SAD + BJP to win 11 seats.
However, almost all the opinion polls failed to gauge the mood of Punjab. None had predicted Congress to win over 70 seats and Aam Aadmi Party to fall below 40 seats.
Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What did the Exit Polls Predicted for 2017 Assembly Election
The Punjab Election 2017 proved to a total miscalculated stint for all the Exit Polls. The Exit poll firms were heavily divided. Some predicted win for AAP while some gave fragmented result. Only a few gave majority to Indian National Congress.
Today's Chanakya predicted hung assembly, while C-Voter predicted Aam Aadmi Party to form government in Punjab.
However, India Today-Axis predicted a win for Congress, but were very off the mark in terms of seat projection for AAP. Here is what Exit Polls for Punjab Assembly election 2017 had projected:
|Today's Chanakya||March 2017||54 ± 9||54 ± 9||9 ± 5|
|India Today-Axis||March 2017||62-71||42-51||4-7|
Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What Happened in Lok Sabha Election 2019?
Punjab had total 13 Lok Sabha seats and it was expected BJP-SAD would be completely washed out while AAP would manage to win few seats in state. However, the result was not as per the expected lines once again.
Out of 13 seats Congress won 8 seats with 40.12% vote share. Shiromani Akali Dal which fought in an alliance with BJP won 2 seats with 27.45 % vote share and BJP too managed to win 2 seats with 9.63 % vote share. Aam Aadmi Party had won 4 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election but in 2019 the party was restricted to only 1 seat with 7.38% vote share.
In terms of Assembly segments, Congress was ahead in 69 segments, SAD in 23 segments, BJP in 12 segments and Aam Aadmi Party in just 7 segments.
Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What Changed since Lok Sabha 2019 in Punjab?
Since 2019 Lok Sabha election, the biggest political change in Punjab has been end of political marriage of BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal. SAD decided to walk out of alliance in the wake of Farm Bill. After that in Punjab Municipal Corporation election was held. Ruling Congress swept the election. It won 90% of the seats while BJP and Aam Aadmi Party were crushed in the state.
RESULT OF MUNICIPAL CORPORATION ELECTION
Total seats: 341
Indian National Congress (INC): 271
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD): 23
Bhartiya Janta Party. (BJP): 20
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP): 9
Punjab Assembly Election 2022: Opinion Poll
The opinion poll for the upcoming Punjab election hasn’t been released. Crowdwisdom360 will be conducting the polls soon and numbers will be updated accordingly. However, recently AAP leader Raghav Chadha claimed that their party will form the next government in Punjab. He shared the opinion poll of a private firm which projected AAP winning 51 to 57 seats, while the ruling Congress could win 43 to 49 seats. Akali Dal and BJP may grab only 12-18 and 0-5 seats.