Punjab Election 2022 Opinion Polls and News: Next CM Charanjit Singh Channi

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Punjab Election 2022 Opinion Polls and News: Next CM Charanjit Singh Channi

08 Oct 2021
Punjab Election 2022 Opinion Polls and News: Next CM Charanjit Singh Channi
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According to the latest Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls, Punjab is headed for a Hung Assembly with Congress predicted to win 49 seats, AAP 44 seats and SAD + BSP to win 20 seats

The Punjab Assembly Elections are expected to be held in the month of February-March 2022.

Compared to other political parties BJP’s stronghold in northern India is getting stronger except Punjab where its former ally Shiromani Akali Dal has quit the NDA over the controversial farm laws.

Some experts believe that the BJP is seeking to build a social coalition of the Dalits, OBCs, and urban Hindus to challenge established players in State politics.

The BJP has more support in urban Punjab and is looking to keep them in its kitty in the upcoming polls. As per the report, the party has identified 45 seats where around 60 percent of the population is Hindu. Out of these, 23 seats are those were BJP used to contest as an alliance partner with the SAD for over 25 years.

To gain votes from the Dalit community, the party picked Vijay Sampla, its Ravidasia face, from the Dalit-dominated Doaba region, and appointed him chairman of the National Commission for Scheduled Castes with the rank of Union minister.

The BJP has made Gajendra Singh Shekhawat its election in charge of Punjab. He will be assisted by three co-in-charges: Union minister for urban and housing affairs Hardeep Singh Puri, Minister of State for external affairs Meenakshi Lekhi, who is a Punjabi-speaking leader; and Home Minister Amit Shah’s confidant and Lok Sabha MP Vinodbhai Chavda.

Shekhawat is directing Punjab affairs for the last two years and was general secretary of the farmers’ wing before he became a minister. In addition, the BJP expects Shekhawat’s connection with farmers’ unions in the State to help at a time when a section of the community is unhappy with the Centre’s farm laws.

Currently, Punjab is ruled by the Congress, which is in great disturbance after Amarinder Singh was removed as Chief Minister and party chief Navjot Singh Sidhu resigned from his post ahead of the upcoming assembly Polls. 

The ABPC voter survey has predicted a hung assembly in the state with the Aam Aadmi Party expected to emerge as the single largest party. According to the survey, the AAP might bag 51 to 57 seats on its own. Out of 117-seat, the halfway mark is 59. The Congress, which won 77  seats in the 2017 assembly polls, is expected to win about 38-46 seats. While the Shiromani Akali Dal will be limited to about 16-24 seats and BJP might not get any seats.

As per the survey 21.6 percent of people wish to see Arvind Kejriwal as the next Chief Minister. Former CM of Punjab Sukhbir Badal at 18.8 per cent, Captain Amarinder Singh at 17.9 per cent, AAP MP Bhagwant Mann at 16.1 per cent and Navjot Singh Sidhu at 15.3 per cent.

With the assembly polls less than five months away, the survey shows that the AAP may hit Congress’ in the state of Punjab which is one of the few states where the Grand Old Party is in power.

Punjab Assembly Elections: Some Facts

The 3 major contenders in this election are:-
1)The ruling Congress Party which is determined to maintain power in the state after the party's failure to win a single state in the recent Assembly Elections in the month of May. The party to decrease the massive anti0incumbency against it forced the ex-CM Captain Amarinder Singh to resign after he lost popularity with the people and his party's MLAs who lost their confidence in his ability to retain power due to his failure to complete his poll promises.

The party appointed Charanjeet Singh Channi as the CM of Punjab. He is the first Dalit CM of the state and the only incumbent Dalit CM throughout India. 

The party may have got rid of some of the negative baggage by replacing the CM but has been unable to get rid of the infighting between its various factions which still continues. Add to that Amarinder Singh infuriated at being forced to resign has left the Congress and may set up his own party to contest in the elections.

2)The Shiromani Akali Dal which under Sukhbir Singh Badal is raring to return to power and has tied up with the BSP to achieve this. Another defeat for the SAD may signal the end of the Badal Family in politics

3)The Aam Aadmi Party which sees an opening due to the massive anger and frustration against all major parties and leaders in Punjab and thus a chance to win power. The party has already promised a Sikh CM,but will it be able to unite and defeat the Congress?



Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: Latest News 

5th October

Farm laws 'reason' behind Lakhimpur Kheri violence: Punjab CM Channi

Lakhimpur violence: Outraged, farmers lay siege to DC offices in Punjab

Modi should understand farmers’ sentiments, resolve issue: Sukhbir

Punjab Sacrilege Cases: Will a Shrewd Prosecutor Appointment Turn Things Around for Congress?

4th October

35 lakh households get AAP certificates assuring free power in Punjab

Punjab CM to visit Lakhimpur Kheri to meet families of deceased farmers; AAP, SAD also to send delegations

Punjab: SAD patron Parkash Singh Badal back, feels betrayed on farm laws

Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: Latest Polls

Overall Opinion Poll Summary - Seats

 

INC

SAD+BSP

AAP

BJP

Opinion Polls Average

49

20

44

1

ABP C Voter

42

20

54

1

Lok Poll

58

21

32

 

We Preside

37

17

61

1

Democracy Times

59

23

28

2

Last Election

77

15

20

3


Overall Opinion Poll Summary - Vote Share

Party

ABP CVoter

WePreside 

Average

2017

INC

29%

31%

30%

39%

SAD+BSP

22%

22%

22%

25%

AAP

35%

33%

34%

24%

BJP

7%

7%

7%

5%

Others 

7%

7%

7%

7%

WePreside Poll
The survey was conducted between 11th July and 13th August.
The Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win enough seats to form the government on its own

As per the observations of the agency

  • There is still a lot of anger and disgust against the Akali Dal and Sukhbir Singh Badal leftover from 2017.

  • Due to this, the SAD is unable to take advantage of the massive anti-incumbency against the Captain Amarinder Singh government.

  • Cong is shrinking its ground very rapidly in East Malwa and Doaba regions of Punjab

  • The farmer agitations are playing a big role in hurting the BJP and the INC and AAP is reaping the benefits of this anger


Democracy Times
This poll was released on 7th August, it puts the INC ahead as the SLP but not with enough seats to form the government.

Party

Seats

INC

59

SAD+BSP

23

AAP

28

BJP

2


Lok Poll 
This poll was conducted in July. It puts the Congress ahead as the SLP and having a chance of gaining a majority on its own

Party

Seats

INC

58-61

SAD+BSP

19-21

AAP

30-33

BJP

0-3

 


There are 3 major Regions of Indian Punjab which are divided by the rivers Ravi, Beas and Satluj. Due to being divided by regions, these regions have some certain distinctive features like dialects, food and even caste composition. Political analysts and politicians make their calculations and assessments by sub-dividing seats in Punjab as part of one of these 3 regions.
1)Majha (69 seats)
2)Malwa (25 seats)
3)Doaba (23 seats)

Caste and Religious Composition of Punjab

As per the 2011 Census, Sikhs are the largest community in Punjab with Hindus forming the second largest .

 

Religion

Proportion of Population

Sikhism

57.69%

Hinduism

38.49%

Islam

1.93%

Christianity

1.26%

Jainism

0.16%

Others

0.47%


Caste Composition of Punjab.
As the figures of the 2011 Socio-Economic caste census haven't been released, the below figures are only rough estimations, 
there are many Sikhs who come under the OBC and SC categories

General Category/Upper Castes:- 31-36%:-
                          Jat Sikhs - 19-21%
                          Hindu UCs( Brahmins,Baniyas,Khatris ,Rajputs)- 10-14%

OBCs- 31-33%:-
                          There are many OBC castes in Punjab:-
                          Sainis, Sikh Rajputs,Gujjar, Arain,Lohar, Ramgarhia ,
                          Kambhoj Sikhs , Kumhar/Prajapatis , Teli , Sunar etc

Dalits- 31.9-33%:-
                          10-12% of the population are Mazhabi Sikhs
                           Ramdasias/Jatavs/Chamars/Adi-Dharmi Sikhs are around 12-13%
                           Valmikis/Bhangis comprise 3% of the population

Religious Minorities - 3.8%

The most powerful community in Punjab is the land-owning Jat Sikh community which punches above its weight in the state. The UC Hindus community are more prominent in the urban areas/constituencies of the state.

The large number of OBC castes is one reason why there is no unity among OBCs in the state.

Punjab has the highest percentage of Dalits compared to every other state in India, but they aren't politically or economically powerful and don't politically match up to their numbers.
Across India, Dalits comprise 15% of the population and their landholdings amount to 8.5% of the total all over India. But in Punjab, despite being one-third of the state’s population, the landholding among them is not more than 3.5%.
There are also claims by many Sikh and Hindu organizations that many disempowered and poor Hindu/Sikh Dalits facing discrimination have converted to Christianity, but identify themselves as Hindu/Sikh to receive the benefits of reservation from the state and central government.

 

Punjab Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: Background before the resignation of Amarinder Singh

The election in Punjab will not be a two-sided one like it was before the 2014 LS elections, nor will it be a three-sided one but a multi-cornered contest between the 4 major parties and the smaller parties in the state this time.

The Congress party is the party in power in Punjab right now, it also performed well in the LS elections in 2019 winning most of the state's Lok Sabha seats.

But a lot has changed in the last few months

The Congress in Punjab seems to be divided among two camps as of now, one Camp of Chief Minister Amrinder Singh and other the Camp of Navjot Singh Siddu. Since the last few weeks Navjot Singh Siddhu, former cabinet minister and senior Congress party leader now Punjab state unit chief has been attacking Capt Amrinder Singh for one reason or the other as the Amarinder Singh government has amassed a lot of anti-incumbency against him.

In midst of all this fighting between Capt Amrinder and Siddhu, Prashant Kishor has announced that his retirement from election management work. This can be a shocker for Punjab CM as he was roped in Amrinder Singh as his political advisor. However, between all this drama, one must not forget how Congress got decimated in 4 of the 5 states that went for polls recently. For Congress to retain Punjab will be one of the biggest political tasks for 2022

Not to mention, the ongoing farmer's agitation in Punjab against the three farm laws passed by the BJP in Delhi has changed everything in Punjab, it brought farmers issues to the front not just in Punjab but in all three states. It forced the Shiromani Akali Dal, which was already uncomfortable with the CAA of the government and feeling suffocated with their bigger ally to dump the BJP in Punjab and Delhi.

This may have saved the Akalis rural farmers cum panthic Sikh base electorally but it doesn't change the fact that many still have not forgotten the misgovernance and corruption of the Akalis in their 10 years of power.

The less said about the BJP the better, their base is only among UC Hindus in the state and they have little support among other communities. After the Akalis dumped them over the farm laws they have made up their mind to contest all 117 seats in the state. They are hoping to consolidate Dalit and OBC Hindus/Sikhs in the name of anti-Jat Sikh Consolidation. No reliable opinion poll has shown them crossing even 5 seats at best, many of their Hindu and Sikh leaders too have left the party in the last few months for the Akali Dal or the Congress

In the midst of all this, the AAP which is recovering from years of infighting and rebellions after their golden start in the 2014 LS elections sees a chance of resurrecting their fortunes to either attain a majority on their own or be the SLP seeing that the other 3 major parties and their leaders are very unpopular in the state thus leaving a vacuum waiting to be occupied.
If AAP gets a leader and puts him forward as their CM face, then perhaps they can win.

There are numerous other small parties in the state:- the BSP(currently in alliance with the Akalis), the SAD(A) comprised of Akali rebels opposed to the Badal Family, the LIP of the Bains brothers of Ludhiana, and so on.

Punjab Assembly Election 2022: Result of 2017 Assembly Election

The result of the election was on the expected lines. Indian National Congress swept the election while ruling SAD-BJP faced a crushing defeat. Of 117 seats, the Congress won 77 seats, Shriomani Akali Dal won 15 seats and Bhartiya Janta Party could win only 3 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party won less than it was expected to, it won 22 seats on debut in the Punjab Assembly.

Capt Amrinder Singh who was then the Member of Parliament from Amritsar was projected as the CM candidate of Punjab by Congress.

What did the Opinion Polls Predicted before 2017 Assembly Election?

The Opinion Polls for the Punjab Assembly election 2017 were off the mark. Most of the Opinion Polls predicted Aam Aadmi party to emerge as the winner while some predicted hung assembly and very few predicted victory for Congress.

On January 2017, TV 24 news predicted Aam Aadmi party to win 75 seats, Congress to win 31 seats, SAD + BJP to win 22 seats.

On January 2017, Aajtak - Axis predicted Congress to win 63 seats, Aam Aadmi party to win 43 seats, SAD + BJP to win 13 seats.

On January 2017, ABP News - CSDS predicted Hung assembly and gave 51 seats to Congress, Aam Aadmi party to win 30 seats, SAD + BJP to win 32 seats.

On January 2017, Huff Post - C Voter predicted Congress to win 43 seats , Aam Aadmi Party to win 63 seat, SAD + BJP to win 11 seats.

However, almost all the opinion polls failed to gauge the mood of Punjab. None had predicted Congress to win over 70 seats and Aam Aadmi Party to fall below 40 seats.

Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What did the Exit Polls Predicted for 2017 Assembly Election

The Punjab Election 2017 proved to a total miscalculated stint for all the Exit Polls. The Exit poll firms were heavily divided.  Some predicted win for AAP while some gave fragmented result. Only a few gave majority to Indian National Congress.

Today's Chanakya predicted hung assembly, while C-Voter predicted Aam Aadmi Party to form government in Punjab.

However, India Today-Axis predicted a win for Congress, but were very off the mark in terms of seat projection for AAP. Here is what Exit Polls for Punjab Assembly election 2017 had projected:

Polling Firm

Date

INC

AAP

BJP+SAD

Today's Chanakya

March 2017

54 ± 9

54 ± 9 

 9 ± 5 

India Today-Axis

March 2017

62-71

42-51

4-7

C-Voter

March 2017

41-49

59-67 

5-13

Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What Happened in Lok Sabha Election 2019?

Punjab had total 13 Lok Sabha seats and it was expected BJP-SAD would be completely washed out while AAP would manage to win few seats in state. However, the result was not as per the expected lines once again.

Out of 13 seats Congress won 8 seats with 40.12% vote share. Shiromani Akali Dal which fought in an alliance with BJP won 2 seats with 27.45 % vote share and BJP too managed to win 2 seats with 9.63 % vote share. Aam Aadmi Party had won 4 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election but in 2019 the party was restricted to only 1 seat with 7.38% vote share.

In terms of Assembly segments, Congress was ahead in 69 segments, SAD in 23 segments, BJP in 12 segments and Aam Aadmi Party in just 7 segments.

Punjab Assembly Election 2022: What Changed since Lok Sabha 2019 in Punjab?

Since 2019 Lok Sabha election, the biggest political change in Punjab has been end of political marriage of BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal. SAD decided to walk out of alliance in the wake of Farm Bill. After that in Punjab Municipal Corporation election was held. Ruling Congress swept the election. It won 90% of the seats while BJP and Aam Aadmi Party were crushed in the state.

RESULT OF MUNICIPAL CORPORATION ELECTION

Total seats: 341

Indian National Congress (INC):  271

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD): 23

Bhartiya Janta Party. (BJP):  20

Aam Aadmi Party (AAP):   9

Independent:  18

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