The 2022 Uttarakhand Assembly election will decide if the state continues with its trend of flipping the incumbent government or retain the incumbent government. The current term of Assembly in Uttarakhand will end on 23rd March 2022.
After coming to power in 2017 riding on the back of the popularity of PM Modi and anti-incumbency, the BJP decided to make Member of Legislative Assembly from Doiwala,Trivendra Singh Rawat as the Chief Minister of the state. However, after four years, due to the massive unpopularity of Trivendra Singh Rawat among the people, party legislators and the RSS, the party decided to change the CM and appointed Tirarth Singh Rawat, MP from Garhwal as the CM.
However, after a period of 116 days, he too had to resign! Such is the anti-incumbency against the party that they feared that if he had contested the by-poll, he would end up losing and it would be terrible optics for the upcoming assembly election.
Both Tirath Singh and Trivendra Rawat attracted more criticism than appreciation for their work.
Thus Pushkar Singh Dhami, MLA from Khatima was selected as the CM and he is the youngest CM the state has ever had.
This chaos has to lead to a strong talk of BJP being ousted out of power in the upcoming Uttarakhand election in 2022, the Congress party unit in the state too is filled with enthusiasm and determination to defeat the BJP. But just like the BJP, the INC to has no shortage of internal problems of its own such as weak central leadership and massive infighting
The last few years have seen a meltdown of the BSP vote share and the rise of AAP in the state. It is very unlikely that AAP can come to power on it's own but it is certain to make good inroads and amass a considerable vote share. The question on everyone's minds is whose votes will the AAP eat into?
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2022: Latest Update
Union Home and Cooperation Minister Amit Shah will be visiting Uttarakhand for a three-days from October 16 to 18. According to ANI, he will access the pre-election preparations in Haridwar. BJP leader Amit Shah will meet state Ministers and party office-bearers in Dehradun. During his visit, the Home Minister is likely to visit the Akhil Vishwa Gayatri Pariwar Shantikunj, and he will also meet Dr Pranav Pandya. Shah will also meet Acharya Swami Avdheshanand Giri in Kankhal, Haridwar.
Shah will travel to Uttarakhand to inaugurate and lay the foundation stone of some projects. "However, the political objective behind his visit cannot be denied,".
In the last polls, BJP won 57 seats in the 70-member state Assembly and Trivendra Singh Rawat was made the Chief Minister. He held the post until March 9, 2021, when the party decided to replace him with Tirath Singh Rawat. However, Tirath's tenure as the CM was for a short period of time. Later on, Pushkar Singh Dhami took over the CM post.
In the upcoming polls, Aam Aadmi Party has already announced its plan to fight against the BJP and Congress. The AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal has also announced that it is former Uttarakhand unit president SS Kaler will contest against CM Puskar Singh Dhami. He has also declared that colonel (retired) Ajay Kothiyal will be AAP's chief ministerial candidate. Apart from this, Congress is also campaigning aggressively.
Recently Former Uttarakhand CM and Congress leader Harish Rawat hinted that he will be not in the race chief ministerial position for forthcoming polls. Speaking at a 'Parivartan Yatra', Rawat said that he would like to see a Dalit CM in the state, asserting that they constitute 18% of the population.
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2022: Latest Opinion Polls
1)As per the latest Jan ki baat survey on Uttarakhand
The Top Issues of the people are
45% of respondents said they will vote for BJP,
43% said they would vote for INC
12% said they would vote for AAP
60% said there is anti-incumbency against MLAs while 32% said there is anti-incumbency against the BJP.
40% of people prefer Harish Rawat as CM,25% prefer the incumbent CM Pushkar Singh Dhami and & 7% prefer the AAP CM Candidate Ajay Kothiyal
Congress has the support of 50% of Thakurs, 78% of Muslims, 34% of Brahmins, 31% of OBCs and 60% of SCs
BJP has the support of 62% of Brahmins and OBCs,47% of Thakurs and 34% of SCs
2) As per the latest ABP News- C Voter poll
This poll foresees the BJP retaining power in the state.
As per their observations:-
1)The Change in CM has decreased the anti-incumbency against the party tremendously
2)Anti-incumbency voters are being divded by AAP thus helping the BJP return to power easily
2)As per Lokpoll's second opinion poll which was released on August 1st
Congress is currently winning 39-41 seats and is winning a simple majority on it's own.
BJP is winning 26-28 seats.
Other parties and independents will win 1-3 seats.
3) The WePreside Poll was carried out from 22nd July to 10th August
They project the BJP emerging as the SLP or close to winning a majority on their own
1)The INC is rapidly gaining ground in the state
2)Candidate Selection is key
3)AAP is doing well among first time voters and those who dislike both the BJP and the Congress
4)As per the Democracy Times Opinion Polls projections.
The BJP is currently ahead at 36 seats with Congress second at 29 seats
The AAP and BSP are unlikely to open their account, independents and others will win 5 seats
As per these poll numbers, Congress is all set to emerge as the single largest party in the state and could form the next government in the state.
The major castes of the state are:-
The most powerful and dominant community in the state
The second most powerful community in the state.
Traditionally, if the party has given the CM post to a Thakur, the state president’s position goes to a Brahmin leader or vice-versa.
Other minor communities in the state include S.T.s who are 3% such as the Jaunsari, Bhotiya, Tharu, Buksa, Raji, Jad and Banrawat constitute 2.89% of the population.
The 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly election saw the return of BJP to power after 5 years in opposition. It is widely acknowledged that the BJP won not just because of the anti-incumbency against the Congress Party but also because of the good name and campaigning of PM Narendra Modi
The BJP swept the elections by winning 57 seats with the Congress able to retain only 11 seats. The incumbent CM Harish Rawat lost from both the seats he contested from. The difference in Voteshare was more than 10%
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll: 2017 Opinion Polls?
The Opinion Polls for the Uttarakhand Assembly election 2017 were on the mark. Almost all the pollsters predicted a victory for the BJP. However, the polling agency failed to predict the number as they underestimated BJP’s performance and overestimated Congress’ performance.
On 05 January 2017, Uttarakhand Post predicted a win for incumbent Congress in state. It was the only polling agency that predicted a win Congress. As per the poll BJP was predicted to win 29 seats while it gave Congress 36 seats. Others were predicted to win 5 seats.
On 10 January 2017, ABP - Lokniti predicted a simple majority for Bhartiya Janata Party in 70 member Uttarakhand assembly. As per the poll BJP was projected to win 39 seats, Congress to win 31 seats.
On 05 January 2017, India Today - Axis predicted an easy win for BJP in the state. As per the poll Bhartiya Janata Party was predicted to win 44 seats, Congress 21 seats and others 4 seats.
The final result of 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly election was BJP 57, Congress 11 and Others 2.
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll: What did the Exit Polls Predicted for 2017 Assembly Election?
Most of the exit polls in 2017 predicted BJP’s win, however, except Today's Chanakya none of the exit polls predicted BJP winning more than 50 seats.
The exit poll number of India Today - Axis were: Bhartiya Janata Party 46 seats, Congress 21 seats and others 3 seats.
C- Voter: Bhartiya Janata Party to win 33 seats, Congress 32 seats, others 5 seats.
Today's Chanakya: Bhartiya Janata Party 53 seats, Congress 15 seats and others 2 seats.
CSDS: Bhartiya Janata Party 42 seats, Congress 23 seats and others 5 seats.
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll: What Happened in Lok Sabha Election 2019?
The 2019 Lok Sabha election gave a massive mandate to BJP. BJP won all the 5 Lok Sabha seats. Not only this BJP got 61.01% vote share in 2019 Lok Sabha election.
Congress failed to open their account and they could garner 31.4% vote share.
Of 70 Assembly segments of the state, BJP was ahead in 65 Assembly segments while Congress was ahead in just 5 assembly segments.
Uttarakhand Assembly Election Opinion Poll:: What Changed since Lok Sabha 2019 in Uttarakhand?
The upcoming Uttarakhand Assembly election is set to see a three-cornered fight this time. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is set to try its luck in state. There are news of AAP making a good inroad in Himalayan state.
The change of Chief Minister by Bhartiya Janata Party just a year before assembly elections have given both Congress and AAP a weapon which they will be hoping to use against the ruling BJP.
Uttarakhand Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Poll
Crowdwisdom360 is yet to conduct its opinion for the upcoming Uttarakhand Assembly election. However, on 18th March 2021 ABP-C Voters released their Uttarakhand Election opinion poll. As per the poll, BJP is set to lose its grip from the state.
The poll predicted a win for Congress in state. As per the poll, BJP’s voteshare in state is expected to see a decline of -8.2% as compared to 2017 polls. Congress may gain 2.3% in their vote share while AAP may make some inroads in state.
According to the poll, Congress may win 35 seats, BJP may win 27 seats, BSP may win 2 seats while AAP may win 5 seats in the state.