The recently concluded Bengal election result did not turn out to be the way BJP had expected. The party seemed to be extremely confident of winning the election however, the result proved to be otherwise with party being restricted to below 80 seats. The next election which will determine the fate of BJP also for 2024 Lok Sabha election is Uttar Pradesh Assembly election of 2022.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2022: What Happened in Lok Sabha Election 2019?
In Lok Sabha election 2019, a new alliance was formed in Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajawadi Party, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party and Ajit Singh’s Rastriya Lok Dal came together to form a Mahagathbandhan against one common enemy BJP.
Indian National Congress went alone while BJP fought the election in an alliance with Apna Dal.
The result of the election was not what Mahagathbandhan had expected. Of 80 Lok Sabha seats, BJP won 62 seats and along with its partner, Apna Dal, NDA won 64 seats.
Mahagathbandhan was reduced to 15 seats with BSP winning 10 seats and SP 5 seats. Congress on the other hand won just one seat.
BJP+ in Uttar Pradesh breached 50% vote share in Lok Sabha 2019.
How does Lok Sabha 2019 result translates into Assembly seats?
Here is how the Lok Sabha 2019 results translates into Assembly Segments for respective parties:
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022: What Changed since Lok Sabha 2019 in Uttar Pradesh?
Prior to Assembly election of 2022, a bye election for 7 Assembly seats was held on 3rd November 2020. Of the 7 seats, BJP retained 6 seats and Samajwadi Party won 1 seat.
During 2019 Lok Sabha election, SP and BSP came together however, as for 2022 Assembly election Mayawati’s Samajwadi Party is set to contest the election on her own. Congress on the other hand may form its own alliance which may include Bhim Army.
BJP may contest in an alliance with Apna Dal and NISHAD Party. Samajwadi Party will be contesting in alliance with RLD and Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohiya).
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Poll
The opinion poll for the upcoming Uttar Pradesh election hasn’t been released. Crowdwisdom360 will be conducting the polls soon and numbers will be updated accordingly.
However, ABP News C Voters released their UP election opinion poll on 18th March 2021. As per the poll, BJP may win 289 out of 403 Legislative Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh which is a dip of 36 seats as it won 325 seats in 2017 polls. Samajwadi Party is likely to get 59 seats (+12) while BSP and Congress may get 38 seats (+19), 9 seats (-3) respectively. The polls shows BJP may bag as much as 41 per cent vote share in case elections happens today.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022 opinion polls 4th May, 2021: The current term of Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh will end on 14th November 2022. Since 2017 that is when Yogi Adityanath took oath as a Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, he has been in news everyday. To be fair with Yogi Adityanath, most of the rating firms calculating the popularity of Chief Minister’s of all the states of India have most of the time rated Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath to be the Best Chief Minister in India. However, for the month of May, for the first time in last 5 months Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath lost his top ranking and he was pushed back to 4th position with his popularity rating seeing a 8% decline.
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Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022: Result of 2017 Assembly Election
In 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election two big political parties of India, Indian National Congress and Samajwadi Party came together and the bonhomie between Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi was considered to lead over any all other political parties in state. The two “UP ke Lawnde” came together to make sure return of Akhilesh Yadav as Chief Minister once again.
On the other hand, Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party contested the 403 seats of UP Assembly all alone. BJP on the other hand contest in an alliance with Apna Dal (Sonelal).
The result of the election was something many might have not expected. BJP along with its alliance partner swept the election. Of 403 seats, the BJP+ won 321 seats (BJP: 312 Apna Dal: 9), Samajwadi Party won 47 seats and Congress could win only 7 seats. Mayawati’s BSP was reduced to 19 seats.
Yogi Adityanath who was then the Member of Parliament from Gorakhpur went on to take oath as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022: What did the Opinion Polls Predicted before 2017 Assembly Election?
The Opinion Polls for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election 2017 were way off the mark. Most of them predicted SP+INC alliance to emerge as the largest alliance.
On 29th January, News 24 India predicted SP+INC to win 191 seats, BJP to win 120 seats and BSP to win 76 seats.
On 30th January, ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS predicted similar result. It gave SP+INC alliance 192 seats, BJP 123 seats and BSP 81 seats.
Times Now VMR survey on 30th January gave BJP 202 seats, SP+INC 147 and BSP 47 seats.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022: What did the Exit Polls Predict for 2017 Assembly Election?
Most of the exit polls had BJP winning the maximum seats, however, except Dainik Bhaskar none of the exit polls predicted BJP winning over 300 seats on its own. Here is how the Exit Polls released on 9 March 2017 had calculated seats for respective parties: