Uttar Pradesh Opinion Polls 2022 average: BJP to win 244 seats

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Uttar Pradesh Opinion Polls 2022 average: BJP to win 244 seats

21 Sep 2021
Uttar Pradesh Opinion Polls 2022 average: BJP to win 244 seats
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Who will win UP Election 2022? As per the latest Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Opinion Polls 2022, the average prediction for BJP is 244 seats, SP is 112 seats and BSP is 27 seats

The 2022 Uttar Pradesh Election is likely to be held between February and March of 2022. Since independence, no Chief Minister in Uttar Pradesh has been voted back to power after completing 5 years in power. So far, only 4 CMs completed 5 or nearly 5 years in power

  • GB Pant (Was re-elected in 1952 but the previous elections were in pre-independence period)
  • Sampuranand (Faced an election after two and half years and was re-elected)
  • Mayawati
  • Akhilesh Yadav

CM Yogi Adityanath is highly likely to complete 5 years in the next 5-6 months. The question is, will he break the jinx and return as Chief Minister after the next election?

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Latest UP Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls

The latest opinion polls give BJP a huge advantage over the other parties.

  • The lowest prediction for the BJP is 203 while the maximum is 283 seats. In 2017, BJP alone won 312 seats while its alliance partners won a further 10 seats
  • As far as the opposition is concerned, SP has a prediction range of 62 and 137 while BSP is between 14 and 48 seats

The gap between BJP and the opposition is so huge that it would be quite a surprise if the SP or BSP can beat BJP.

What we have heard is that SP internals (not independently confirmed) show SP at 200+. SP won 229 seats in 2017.  Here are the estimates of various agencies - 

 

Bharatiya Janata

Party

Samajwadi

Party

Bahujan Samaj

Party

Average

244

112

27

LokPoll

203

137

31

ABP CVoter

263

113

14

We Preside

220

125

48

Democracy Times

249

124

14

Republic TV Matrize

283

62

27

As we saw in various elections recently, opinion polls are not very accurate. Opinion polls 6 months before the election are even less accurate. 

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Latest UP Assembly Election 2022 Vote Share

In terms of vote share, the BJP predicted range is between 35 and 42%. The NDA won about 41% share in 2017. SP is steady at 30%. Even in 2017, SP won about 29% of the vote. 

Party 

Average

ABP CVoter

WePreside

BJP

39%

42%

35%

SP

30%

30%

30%

BSP

19%

16%

22%

INC

6%

5%

6%

Others/Independents

7%

7%

7%

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: 3 Reasons why the Opposition parties will struggle to beat the BJP

1. While some regard CM Adityanath as a polarizing figure, he has enjoyed strong support amongst voters in the state. Apart from periodic surveys which show high satisfaction with the CM, the BJP has performed well even in the 2019 election and 2021-22 local elections.

2. None of the current Opposition parties have won anywhere near 35% of the vote in the last 30 years. This is because of the narrow caste and demographic base that each of SP, BSP and Congress target. Over the last 5 years, all 3 parties have failed to develop leadership that represents the various shades of the UP population

3. Another way to look at it is through a mix of Leadership development, OBC and even tokenism, BJP has taken large proportions of the OBC and Upper caste voters along with them. The SP or BSP have failed to find an issue (so far atleast) that will make these voters to abandon the BJP. 

For example, the UP per capita GDP (Constant currency) has grown by less than 1% in the last 4 years (2017 to 2021), the much hated (by BJP supporters) Mamata grew Bengal per capita by a whopping 22%. Such stark performance gaps have made ZERO dent on the popularity of CM Yogi Adityanath, a reflection how poorly the Oppositiion has organised themselves over the last 5 years. 

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: The Caste Game

Caste distribution in Uttar Pradesh is crucial in UP. BJP performs well on Key caste blocks

BJP Dominated blocks

  • Brahmins - 9-11% share - Key rivals - Congress, BSP
  • Rajputs - 7-8% share
  • Other UCs including Jats, Vaishyas, Baniyas - 5% share - Key rivals - Congress, SP, RLD
  • Total OBC population -42-45%
  • OBC population excluding Yadavs - 33-36 % share - Key rivals - SP and other smaller parties

Total BJP Dominated Blocks share = 54%

Blocks where BJP competes well 

  • Non-Jatav Dalits: 9-10%, Key rivals- BSP and SP

Total BJP Strong Blocks share = 63%

BJP needs to win just 65% of these blocks to win the UP election

Non-BJP Opposition Dominated Blocks

 

  • Jatav/Chamar Dalits: 11-12%; Most likely to vote for BSP, though some youth in Western UP could vote for the Bhim Army
  • Yadavs : 8-9%; 80-90% of the Community is expected to vote for the SP
  • Muslims : 19-20%; 90% of the community is expected to vote for non-BJP parties depending upon the constituency and who is more suited to defeat the                                 BJP. Though the SP is expected to be the first choice of the community in any generic situation


As the below Map displays, is one more likely to find Muslims in the upper parts of the state than in the lower parts. They are a pan UP community and are most influential in the Western and Eastern parts of the state.

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Key Issues

 - 33% of voters believe ayodhya is a very important issue for them

- Just like our Bengal data, the number 1 issue is inflation. 45% of respondents felt the Yogi Govt failed on this issue

 


Track Yogi Adityanath's CM rating every month, click here


Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Latest News, 20th September

20th September

Adityanath govt announces full transformation of UP in report card, claims UP has been free of riots under his tenure

Uttar Pradesh: We have fulfilled all promises made in Sankalp Patra, says Yogi Adityanath

Yogi Adityanath marks 4.5 years of his government, says BJP will win 350+ seats in UP elections

Akhilesh Yadav calls BJP a training centre for International lies, calls Yogi's report one full of lies

"UP BJP government advertisements and claims of '4.5 years of change' are far from the ground reality. Due to the difference in their words and works, the people are suffering due to increasing poverty, unemployment and inflation."
 

19th September

Ahead of UP poll, Congress Brahmin leader Lalitesh Tripathi resigns from party, may join SP

​​2022 UP Polls: Will Mulayam succeed in getting Shivpal to do a Ghar Wapsi?
 

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022:Detailed Poll Analysis
 

As per the findings of the latest We Preside UP Assembly Election 2022 Survey published on 13th August

Some observations of the company are - 

  • BJP is clearly ahead of everyone and can form the government on its own
  • BSP though down is not out and shouldn't be underestimated
  • Caste arithmetic is king

As per the latest LokPoll UP Assembly Election 2022 survey

  • BJP+ is expected to get 220-230 seats
  • Samajwadi party and its allies are expected to get 120-130
  • The BSP will get around 20-30 seats.
  • The Congress will get around 10-20 seats
  • Other small parties and independents won't cross 20 seats.

As per the latest Democracy Times UP Assembly Election 2022 Poll

  • BJP and its allies are expected to get 249 seats, it's less than the tally from the 2017 Assembly Election. But enough to get them halfway through easily
  • Samajwadi Allies and its allies will touch 124, an increase of 100 seats but far from enough to attain power
  • BSP will remain at a dismal 14 seats,a decrease from the number of seats it won last time
  • Congress will not cross double digits and can win only 3 seats
  • Others i.e.independents and small parties will get 13 seats

Republic TV, Matrize, UP Assembly Election 2022 Poll (25th July)

BJP to win 278-288 seats, SP is 109 seats

Dalit Voters: BJP: 43%, BSP: 45%

Brahmin Voters: BJP: 64%, BSP: 16%, INC: 12%

Times Now CVoter (16th July 201)

43% of the voters in UP believe that BJP will win the 2022 assembly election. 29.6% think that SP will win the 2022 assembly election

42% of the voters in UP believe prefer CM Yogi Adityanath while 32% prefer Akhilesh Yadav

Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's approval ratings are at 54%, quite comfortable for re-election

In the Crowdwisdom360 prediction trading game, 44 % feel BJP will win more than 300 seats in the election. Click Yes or No to start playing the game and win amazon voucher



UP Election Date 2022: Likely to be between 11th February - 30th March 2022

Uttar Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: What Changed since Lok Sabha 2019 in Uttar Pradesh?

Prior to the Assembly election of 2022, a bye-election for 7 Assembly seats was held on 3rd November 2020. Of the 7 seats, BJP retained 6 seats and Samajwadi Party won 1 seat.

During the 2019 Lok Sabha election, SP and BSP came together however, as for the 2022 Assembly election Mayawati’s Samajwadi Party is set to contest the election on her own. Congress on the other hand may form its own alliance which may include Bhim Army.

BJP may contest in an alliance with Apna Dal and NISHAD Party. Samajwadi Party will be contesting in alliance with RLD and Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party (Lohiya).

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