The 5 states where election was held this year were kind of on the better side for the saffron party, BJP except the Bengal election, whereas it were the elections for Congress to forget. From getting 0 seats in West Bengal assembly elections to tasting defeat in Assam and Kerala the Congress party needs to regroup as a party to perform well in the upcoming 2022 elections.
Whereas the BJP though didn’t perform as expected in West Bengal election, but they surely got the opposition space to target the ruling party TMC in every aspect, they also got victory in Assam and will also be forming Govt in Puducherry with AINRC for the first time. The upcoming elections in 2022 will decide the fate of the BJP for 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: What Happened in 2019 Lok Sabha Election?
In 2019 General elections The BJP swept Gujarat with winning all the 26 seats out. The Congress got 0. BJP got 62% vote share while Congress got 32% vote share. BJP saw an increase in vote share of about 2.10%.
Converting Lok Sabha seats into assembly segments, BJP lead on 112 seats, Congress were leading on 65 seats and others were at 5 seats out of the total 182 assembly seats.
However, since 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP has flattered in almost every Assembly election therefore, relying on Lok Sabha result to conclude the Assembly result would not be appropriate.
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: What Happened in 2017 Assembly election?
Last Assembly election that is 2017 Gujarat election was the first election in Gujarat after Narendra Modi left Gujarat and took oath as Prime Minister of India. After he left Gujarat things were never the same for BJP in state. Anandiben Patel took over the reign of Gujarat from Modi but due to her unpopularity party replaced her and gave Vijay Rupani charge of state. For Rupani much was at stake in 2017. However, he proved his worth and gave BJP much needed win the state.
The election result was very close as expected. BJP won 99 seats which was 17 seats down from 2012 and Congress won 79 which was 16 seats up from 2012. BJP got 49.05% vote share whereas Congress got 41%vote share.
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion pollsL: What has changed since 2017 Gujarat Election?
Since 2017 Assembly election, the state politics has witnessed many changes. The very next election after Assembly election was Lok Sabha 2019 election, BJP swept the entire state. Indian National Congress got the new working state president in Hardik Patel and Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party has started to make its impact in the state.
Recently, in Gujarat elections to 6 municipal corporations were held. BJP swept elections by winning all the six municipal corporations in Gujarat. The party won 483 out of 576 seats. The ruling party retained power in all the six municipal corporations in the state -- Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot, Jamnagar and Bhavnagar. BJP won 159 out of 192 seats in Ahmedabad, 68 out of 72 seats in Rajkot, 50 out of 64 seats in Jamnagar, 44 out of 52 seats in Bhavnagar, 69 out of 76 seats in Vadodara and 93 out of 120 seats in Surat.
Indian National Congress was decimated as party could manage to win only 55 seats. The new entrant Aam Aadmi Party was able to win 27 seats while AIMIM won 7 seats.
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: What were the Opinion Poll number for 2017 Gujarat Assembly election?
Most of the Opinion Polls predicted a clean sweep for BJP in state. ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) predicted 1144-152 seats for BJP while 26-32 seats for Congress in its initial polling. However, the last polling number published by ABP News (Lokniti CSDS) on December 6, 2017 gave BJP 91-99 seats while for Congress they predicted 78-86 seats.
India Today-Axis My India gave 120-135 seats for BJP while 55-70 seats for Congress. Times VMR polls gave BJP 106-116 seats and for Congress it predicted 63-73 seats.
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls: What were the Exit Poll Numbers for Gujarat 2017 Assembly Election?
None of the agencies giving the Exit Poll numbers for Gujarat 2017 election could gauge the mood of the people. All the polls gave BJP over 100 seats in state. However final result was not as what they had predicted. Here are few Exit Poll numbers from Gujarat 2017 Assembly election:
ABP News (Lokniti CSDS):
BJP: 117 seats with 49% vote share, Congress 64 seats with 41% vote share while others were projected to win 1 seat.
TV9 C Voter:
BJP: 109 with 52% vote share, Congress 74 seats with 39% vote share
BJP: 99-113 with 47% vote share
Congress: 68-82 with 42% vote share
BJP: 108-118 with 48% vote share
Congress: 61-71 with 41% vote share
Gujarat Assembly Election 2022 Opinion polls for 2022 Election
The Opinion polls for the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election are yet to be published. Crowdwisdom360 is yet to conduct any poll on Gujarat election