BJP will be desperate to win their stronghold state of Uttarakhand when it goes to poll next year ie 2022. On the other hand, the Congress would look to cash in the opportunity to win the state by raising various issues like 5 years of mis governance, but most importantly the resignation of Trivendra Rawat. After Trivendra Rawat’s resignation Tirath Singh Rawat took over the responsibility of the Chief Minister post. However, interestingly people of Uttarakhand have preferred the new CM more than the old CM, which makes the election more interesting.
On the other hand, Congress could project Harish Rawat as their CM face for the 2022 Uttarakhand election. While the Congress continues to take digs on the BJP for changing their CM in the middle of the pandemic, the BJP would be looking to act swiftly under new leadership to control the current pandemic so that people of Uttarakhand would take the decision of BJP of changing the Chief Minister in a positive way.
It must be remembered that since 2014 Uttarakhand has been one of the strongholds of BJP. But history of Uttarakhand politics clearing shows change of government after every 5 years. In 2019 Lok Sabha, BJP swept the state of Uttarakhand. Out of 5 seats BJP had won all the 5 seats, while Congress, BSP failed to open their account.
With respect to vote share BJP got massive 61% vote share whereas Congress got 31.40% of total votes polled. BSP had to settle for 4.48% vote share. Of 70 assembly seats, BJP led on 65 assembly constituencies while Congress led on only 5 assembly segments.
What are the factors that may lead over throwing of BJP government in state?
In 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly BJP riding on Modi wave along with 5-years of anti-incumbency of then ruling Congress government registered a massive win in the state. BJP won 57 out of 70 assembly seats while Congress could win only 11 seats.
BJP saw an increase of 26 seats from the last assembly election while Congress saw a decrease of 21 seats from 2012 assembly elections. BJP got 46.5% votes while Congress got 33.5% votes, BSP got 7% votes. Trivendra Singh Rawat was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand.
However, in last 4.5 years lot of water have flown down the Ganga river. From replacing its Chief Minister to COVID mis-handling, the opposition is not letting any stone unturned to attack ruling BJP. Added to it the 2022 Uttarakhand Assembly election is set to be fight between three big political parties instead of usual BJP-Congress fight. Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is hoping to make impact in the state and has started its preparation with greater strength.
A survey published by C-Voter in the month of March 2021 had BJP losing the state while the new entrant in the state AAP could win 5 assembly seats. Uttarakhand has never given more than 5 years to any party to govern the state. However, this time people of Uttarakhand will have a new choice. But recently in by-election held in Uttarakhand on Salt Assembly seat in Almora district, BJP performed better than what it had performed in last election. The seat fell vacant due to the death of sitting BJP MLA due to COVID-19. In the recently concluded by-election, BJP got over 50% vote share while Congress could get around 42% vote share.
During its tenure of 4.5 years, BJP have had a mixed bag of both positives and negatives. The BJP has done works like construction of roads, schools etc. in rural, however, a lot is still left to be done. BJP however, claims that the party has completed 85% of works that it had promised in its manifesto.
Looking at the currently situation it would be early to conclude that BJP may lose the upcoming Uttarakhand assembly election.
What Exactly was the Conclusion of Recently Published Opinion Poll?
In the month of March a survey showed that things does not look good for the ruling party. This survey was done by CVoter and was published by ABP news. According to the survey:
70% people said that BJP did right by changing the CM while 19% did not favor this season. However, only 26% favored the work of new CM while 54% says have expressed their displeasure.
According to that survey Congress may get 41% vote share while BJP may get 38% vote share, AAP 9% vote share and BSP may have to settle for just 4% votes share.
C Voter survey gave BJP 24-30 seats while Congress could form the government by winning 32-38 seats. BSP may win 0-6 seats and AAP may get 2-8 seats. Others are set to win 0-3 seats.