Updated COVID-19 Forecasts for India and USA

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Updated COVID-19 Forecasts for India and USA

01 Apr 2020
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Updated COVID-19 Forecasts for India and USA

by  Mohal Joshi @MohalJoshiHost: @indiarisingmk, Columnist & Podcaster. Interests: GeoPolitics/Defence/Psephology/Politics

This is an update. A version from two days ago (COVID-19 India Forecasts: Is India beginning to bend the curve?) is available here

Updated modelling of COVID-19 "projected" case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days.

USA: 189,785 actual vs 189,137 (my projected no) [~0.3% delta]
INDIA: 1,619 actual vs 1,524 (my projected no) [~6.2% delta] 

COVID-19 Forecasts for USA

 As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~476,000+


"Future projected" values are in black color/white font.

ImageImage

In USA the % increase in new cases has been less than 20% over the past 4 days. Whether this trend continues long term is yet to be seen in the coming days. 

COVID-19 Forecasts for India

As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be ~5,300+

Note: "Future projected" values are in black color/white font.

ImageImage

India saw another massive (+272) increase in new cases i.e. two days of 200+ new cases. This presents a new challenge for authorities as in the coming days more people will be identified from these "hotspot" clusters all across the nation. Next few days will be crucial as all the infected people from these clusters needed to be identified & isolated quickly to prevent India case number from exploding even more. 

This analysis originally appeared here

https://twitter.com/MohalJoshi/status/1245207963318411264

Please read our other analysis on COVID-19 covering a whole host of issues here

If you want to predict what is likely to happen next, please join our prediction exercise on COVID-19

Copyright for this content and analysis is the property of respective owners. The purpose of these forecasts is not to create panic but to inform the general public. You are always advised to listen to Government authorised sources on how to handle the COVID-19 pandemic

 

 

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