The latest Tamil Nadu election result shows end of 10 year rule of AIADMK in state. As of 12:30 PM, the official Election Commission website shows DMK ahead in 118 seats, AIADMK ahead in 80 seats, BJP on 4 and Indian National Congress on 12 seats.
Here is the summary of the Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election which was published on 29th April:
|Republic TV - CNX||160 - 170||58 - 68||4 - 6||0 - 2||–||–|
|ABP - CVoter||160 - 172||58 - 70||0 - 4||0 - 2||0 - 3|
|India Today - Axis My India||175 - 195||38 - 54||1 - 2||0 - 2||0 - 2||0 - 1|
|India Ahead - P MARQ||165 - 190||40 - 65||1 - 3||1 - 6|
|News24 - Today's Chanakya||164 - 186||46 - 68||0 - 6|
|SPICK NEWS - MCV Network||146||85||2||1||0||–|
Summary of Opinion Polls
|When||DMK+||AIADMK+||Others||Error in 2016|
|Times Now C Voter||March||177||49||8||-6|
Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices
DMK to win 115+ Seats: Price: 79, High Probability
DMK to win 135+ Seats: Price: 50, Medium Probability
Most likely to win seat by a big margin
MK Stalin: Price: 64, Medium Probability (Trending lower)
O Paneerselvam: Price: 51, Medium Probability (Trending lower)
EK Palanisami: Price: 51, Medium Probability
In 2019 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties - AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 51% of the share of search, the two UPA parties - DMK and INC had 49% of the share of Google Search
In 2021 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties - AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 44% of the share of search, the two UPA parties - DMK and INC had 56% of the share of Google Search
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Polls 2021: Latest News
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Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021: Summary
The AIADMK alliance appears to be struggling with none of the polls showing them ahead of even close. The economic performance has been ordinary. The CM is suffering from very low approval ratings. At 37% he is one of the worst performing Chief Ministers in India. In January he had gained 11% in his rating as compared to December 2020 rating. However, in February there has been no change in his preference rating. However, his rank in the Best Chief Minister List in India declined. From 10th position last month he is now at 16th position this month.
Will DMK alliance win the upcoming Tamil Nadu election? Click on the image below to mark your prediction
Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll: Analysis
1. MCV Network Spick Media
DMK alliance seems to be comfortable placed to win the upcoming the Tamil Nadu Assembly election. The recent poll released by MCV Network-Spick Media gives DMK+ 158 seats with 43.6% of vote share. ADMK alliance may get around 34.04% vote share which may translate to just 74 seats.
AMMK may win 2 seats while Kamal Hasan's MNM may fail to open their account.
2. Chintamani Elections.in
The opinion poll by Chintamani Elections.in does not give any clear winner for upcoming Tamil Nadu election. The poll show both the alliance winning 105-115 seats with Others winning 14-24 seats in upcoming Tamil Nadu election.
3. APT Research Group
On 22nd March, APT Research Group released its Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll for Puthiya Thalaimurai TV. The poll gives a clear mandate to MK Stalin's DMK. As per the poll, DMK+ may win around 151-158 seats wihile AIADMK+ may have to settle for only 76-83 seats.
4. ABP C Voters
ABP C Voters in its new poll published on 15th March give a massive egde to DMK+ in Tamil Nadu. As per the DMK+ may win whopping 161-169 seats while AIADMK+ may just win 53-61 seats. Kamal Hasan's MNM may get around 2-6 seats with AMMK may get 1-5 seats.
5. Times Now CVoter
Times Now C-Voter predicts DMK-led UPA will wrest Tamil Nadu from the AIADMK-led NDA. As per the poll DMK-Congress alliance may win 158 seats while AIADMK-BJP alliance may win only 65 seats. In 2016 AIADMK had won 136 seats.
6. Thanti TV
Thanti TV recently conducted a survey in state of Tamil Nadu and found that AIADMK is closing in. Not only this the popularity of CM E Paliniswamy has increased drastically. As per the survey, 47 percent of the respondent said that the opposition, DMK would form the government while 41% said that ruling AIADMK would return to power.
As for the CM Preference rating, 47% favored MK Stalin as CM while 42% favored EPS, a massive 9% increase from December 2020 to February 2021.
7. Crowdwisdom360 Poll
Crowdwisdom360 predicts - DMK+: 120 seats, NDA: 105 seats. Vote Share: DMK+ 42.5%, NDA: 38.1%. Latest Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll show a win for DMK alliance. Crowdwisdom360 completed its opinion poll survey in 15 districts. The above data is based upon the recent survey result.
|Tittagudi (SC)||SC||Cuddalore||Too Close|
|Avanashi (SC)||SC||Coimbatore||Too Close|
|Tiruppur (North)||GEN||Coimbatore||Too Close|
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Analysis
1. AIADMK is performing better than Lok Sabha election 2019
2. AIADMK Performance has improved over the last 2 months
AIADMK was in pits during the Lok Sabha election in 2019 and after facing a further setback after the COVID crisis, they are gradually fashioning a recovery.
It is possible that as number of COVID cases reduces and TN returns to normal, the anti-incumbency is falling. We can see this in the improvements on Google Trends. Also, TN seems to be improving rapidly on GST collections which means the economy is recovering faster than most states. At the moment the data suggests that AIADMK is most likely to lose power in 2021. However, as things stand today, it does not appear to be the landslide we saw in the Lok Sabha Election or even expected two months ago.One important point to note is that AIADMK has a much deeper base than DMK (read this analysis). So it has greater ability to bounce back than the DMK. That is one reason we keep seeing AIADMK keeps recovering everytime they are down. It remains to be seen if the AIADMK along with BJP can fashion a victory from the jaws of defeat in the next 5 months
Tamil Nadu Election 2016 Overall Result Analysis
AIADMK+: 134 Seats (41.8% Vote Share)
DMK+: 98 Seats (39.3% Share)
*Elections was held only 232 seats in May 2016
How AIADMK and DMK fared in 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly election region wise?
Urban and Semi-Urban regions
AIADMK+: 85 Seats
DMK+: 57 Seats
AIADMK has done quite well in Semi-Urban parts of TN while DMK was evens in Urban and Rural Tamil Nadu
AIADMK: 49 Seats
DMK+: 41 Seats
Tamil Nadu Election 2021 Opinion Poll: Analysis of previous Tamil Nadu Election Results
- After 1996, AIADMK has increased its vote share in every single election. DMK on the other hand has not crossed 35% in a single election since 1996
- The last time DMK won a majority on its own was in 1996, AIADMK on the other hand has won a majority on its own 3 times out of the last 4 elections
- The DMK's weakness is mostly in Western TN (Kongu belt) and Central region where it won just 14 seats versus AIADMK which won 43 Seats. This will be a key battle ground in 2021. There are 13 seats here which the AIADMK has won with less than 5% of the margin and 23 seats with less than 7.5% of the margin
- AIADMK had huge leads in urban seats, specifically semi-urban seats. In urban seats AIADMK led DMK 85 to 57 seats
- The other area of strength for AIADMK was women where it lead DMK by a wide margin of 11%.
The ongoing Coronavirus crisis have helped AIADMK to improve its stature in the state initially. However the growing numbers in the state has led to a decrease in his popularity of Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. A recent poll by Ormax Media said that just 48% of respondents in Tamil Nadu approved of the job done by Mr. Palaniswami. This is one of the lowest in the country.
Chief Minister K Palaniswami has been trying to position himself as the son of the soil. He has successfully been able to douse the internal fights in his party along with it he has been able to place himself as an able administrator before the people of Tamil Nadu.
After the sweep in Lok Sabha election 2019, DMK has been on Cloud 9. However, one must not forget that along with Lok Sabha election, by-polls to 22 vacant assembly election was held. Out of 22, DMK had won 13 in last election and AIADMK could manage 9.
Tamil Nadu Election 2021 Opinion Poll: Exit Polls in 2016 and their Accuracy
In 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, AIADMK returned to power despite facing a 5-years of anti-incumbency. Of 234 seats, AIADMK won 136 seats while DMK won 98 seats. Here is what exit polls predicted for Tamil Nadu election in 2016:
|NDTV Poll of Polls||103||120||0|
The exit polls for Tamil Nadu election 2016 were pretty much inaccurate. Except a few agencies, most to them predicted a win for DMK. Most of the exit polls considered the usual tendency of Tamil Nadu that is change of government after every five years. However, in 2016 it was AMMA Jaylalitaa who single handedly spearheaded AIADMK towards victory.
Even the opinion polls showed DMK under the late M Karunanidhi dethroning AIADMK government.