Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021: DMK+ to form Government?

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Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021: DMK+ to form Government?

25 Jan 2021
Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021: DMK+ to form Government?
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Crowdwisdom360
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The Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll prediction give DMK+ winning with outstanding majority. As per ABP-C Voters DMK+ may win 162 seats while AIADMK+ may win just 62 seats. Crowdwisdom360 predicts - DMK+: 125 seats, NDA: 106 seats. Vote Share: DMK+ 42.5%, NDA: 38.1%. Latest Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll show a win for DMK alliance.  Crowdwisdom360 completed its opinion poll survey in 15 districts. The above data is based upon the recent survey result.
Methodology of Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll: Wisdom of the crowd method (small samples). This survey is different from traditional surveys because we do not ask respondents who they are likely to vote. Instead, respondents are chosen for their understanding of the political situation and can be anyone from the crowd - it is hence called the wisdom of the crowd. A little analytics is used to remove bias. We predicted 70% of the seats accurately in Bihar with 90% of the rest ending with a margin of 1000 votes. Here are the results of the 15 Districts

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Seatwise Estimate

AC Name District 2016 Winning Party 2021 Prediction
Perambur Chennai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Kolathur Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Villivakkam Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Egmore Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Royapuram Chennai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Harbour Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Thousand Lights Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Anna Nagar Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Virugampakkam Chennai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Saidapet Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Thiyagarayanagar Chennai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Mylapore Chennai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Velachery Chennai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Mettuppalayam Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Avanashi (SC) Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Tiruppur (North) Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Tiruppur (South) Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Palladam Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Sulur Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Kavundampalayam Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Coimbatore (North) Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Thondamuthur Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Coimbatore (South) Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Singanallur Coimbatore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Kinathukadavu Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Pollachi Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Valparai Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Udumalaipettai Coimbatore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Madathukulam Coimbatore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Tittagudi (SC) Cuddalore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Vridhachalam Cuddalore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Neyveli Cuddalore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Panruti Cuddalore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Cuddalore Cuddalore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Kurinjipadi Cuddalore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Bhuvanagiri Cuddalore Dravida Munetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Chidambaram Cuddalore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Kattumannarkoil(SC) Cuddalore All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Palani Dindigul Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Oddanchatram Dindigul Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Athoor Dindigul Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Nilakkottai Dindigul All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Natham Dindigul Dravida Munetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Dindigul Dindigul All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Vedasandur Dindigul All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Erode (East) Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Erode (West) Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Modakkurichi Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Dharapuram (SC) Erode Indian National Congress DMK
Kangayam Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Perundurai Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Bhavani Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Anthiyur Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Gobichettipalayam Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Bhavanisagar Erode All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Shozhinganallur Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Alandur Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Sriperumbudur Kancheepuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Pallavaram Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Tambaram Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Chengalpattu Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Thiruporur Kancheepuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Cheyyur Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Madurantakam Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Uthiramerur Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Kancheepuram Kancheepuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Melur Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Madurai East Madurai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Sholavandan Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Madurai North Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Madurai South Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Madurai Central Madurai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Madurai West Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Thiruparankundram Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Thirumangalam Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Usilampatti Madurai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Gangavalli Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Attur Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Yercaud Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Omalur Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Mettur Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Edappadi Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Sankari Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Salem (West) Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Salem (North) Salem Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Salem (South) Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Veerapandi Salem All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Gummidipoondi Thiruvallur All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Thiruvallur Thiruvallur Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Vilathikulam Thoothukkudi All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Thoothukkudi Thoothukkudi Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Tiruchendur Thoothukkudi Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Srivaikuntam Thoothukkudi All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Ottapidaram Thoothukkudi All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Kovilpatti Thoothukkudi All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Kulithalai Tiruchirappalli Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Manapparai Tiruchirappalli All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Srirangam Tiruchirappalli All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Tiruchirappalli (West) Tiruchirappalli Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Tiruchirappalli (East) Tiruchirappalli All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Thiruverumbur Tiruchirappalli Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Lalgudi Tiruchirappalli Dravida Munetra Kazhagam Too Close
Manachanallur Tiruchirappalli All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close
Musiri Tiruchirappalli All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Thuraiyur Tiruchirappalli Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Kilpennathur Tiruvannamalai Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Kalasapakkam Tiruvannamalai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Cheyyar Tiruvannamalai All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Gingee Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Mailam Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Tindivanam Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Vanur Viluppuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Villupuram Viluppuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam DMK
Vikravandi Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Tirukkoyilur Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Ulundurpettai Viluppuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Rishivandiyam Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam DMK
Sankarapuram Viluppuram Dravida Munetra Kazhagam AIADMK
Kallakurichi Viluppuram All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Too Close

 

The latest Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll released by ABP-C Voters suggests return of DMK+ to power after 10 years. As per the poll DMK+ may win 162 seats while AIADMK and BJP alliance may have to settle for just 68 seats. As per them DMK+ may get votershare of 41.1 per cent vote share this time while AIADMK alliance will  bag just 28.7 per cent vote share in 2021.


Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Latest News Update

DMK Chief MK Stalin said that, people of Tamil Nadu want state to remian secular. He also said that there is no doubt about DMK+Congress alliance.

DMK urged Tamil Nadu Government to stop giving ads for AIADMK.

In Tamil Nadu Women voter outnumber men voters. The electoral count in Tamil Nadu stands at 6.26 crore.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister EPS said that there is no chance of Sasikala re-joining AIADMK.

Rahul Gandhi to launch election campaign in Tamil Nadu on January 23rd.

The AIADMK-BJP alliance in Tamil Nadu may include Sasikala in their alliance for the upcoming Tamil Nadu Election. As per the Thugalk Editor S Gurumurthy, the jailed aide of Jayalalitha may be made part of the allliance.

Tamill Nadu CM EPS is on a Delhi visit. He is likely to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Amid the Tamil Nadu Assembly electoin, Kamal Hassan has taken a break due to his leg surgery.

People’s reception gives us confidence that we will win a majority, says Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Palaniswami

AIADMK will decide on CM candidate, says BJP leader

Tamil Nadu parties try to encash Pongal with doles and freebies ahead of assembly election

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election: Google Trend Comparison

Since Lok Sabha Election 2019, DMK has been ahead of AIADMK even in terms of Google searches in state. If the data is analysed, though AIADMK has gained to some extent, but DMK has been ahead of AIADMK

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Stalin vs E Palaniswami on Google Trends

Last 1 year: MK Stalin: 52% E Palaniswami: 48%

Last 3 months: MK Stalin: 59% E Palaniswami: 41%

Last 1 month: MK Stalin: 54% E Palaniswami: 46%

2019 Lok Sabha Election: MK Stalin: 75% E Palaniswami: 25%


Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Analysis

1. AIADMK is performing better than Lok Sabha election 2019

2. AIADMK Performance has improved over the last 2 months

AIADMK was in pits during the Lok Sabha election in 2019 and after facing a further setback after the COVID crisis, they are gradually fashioning a recovery.  It is possible that as number of COVID cases reduces and TN returns to normal, the anti-incumbency is falling. We can see this in the improvements on Google Trends. Also, TN seems to be improving rapidly on GST collections which means the economy is recovering faster than most states. At the moment the data suggests that  AIADMK is most likely to lose power in 2021. However, as things stand today, it does not appear to be the landslide we saw in the Lok Sabha Election or even expected two months ago.One important point to note is that AIADMK has a much deeper base than DMK (read this analysis). So it has greater ability to bounce back than the DMK. That is one reason we keep seeing AIADMK keeps recovering everytime they are down. It remains to be seen if the AIADMK along with BJP can fashion a victory from the jaws of defeat in the next 5 months


Some Facts about Previous Tamil Nadu Election Results

- Since 1977, DMK has won more than 35% of the vote share just once, AIADMK has won it five times

- After 1996, AIADMK has increased its vote share in every single election. DMK on the other hand has not crossed 35% in a single election since 1996

- The last time DMK won a majority on its own was in 1996, AIADMK on the other hand has won a majority on its own 3 times out of the last 4 elections

- The DMK's weakness is mostly in Western TN (Kongu belt) and Central region where it won just 14 seats versus AIADMK which won 43 SeatsThis will be a key battle ground in 2021. There are 13 seats here which the AIADMK has won with less than 5% of the margin and 23 seats with less than 7.5% of the margin

- AIADMK had huge leads in urban seats, specifically semi-urban seats. In urban seats AIADMK led DMK 85 to 57 seats

- The other area of strength for AIADMK was women where it lead DMK by a wide margin of 11%. 

The ongoing Coronavirus crisis have helped AIADMK to improve its stature in the state initially. However the growing numbers in the state has led to a decrease in his popularity of Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. A recent poll by Ormax Media said that just 48% of respondents in Tamil Nadu approved of the job done by Mr. Palaniswami. This is one of the lowest in the country.

Chief Minister K Palaniswami has been trying to position himself as the son of the soil. He has successfully been able to douse the internal fights in his party along with it he has been able to place himself as an able administrator before the people of Tamil Nadu.  

After the sweep in Lok Sabha election 2019, DMK has been on Cloud 9. However, one must not forget that along with Lok Sabha election, by-polls to 24 vacant assembly election was held. Out of 24, DMK had won 21 in last election and AIADMK could manage only 3.

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