Tamil Nadu Election Result: DMK+ set to form heading for Win

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Tamil Nadu Election Result: DMK+ set to form heading for Win

09 May 2021
Tamil Nadu Election Result: DMK+ set to form heading for Win
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The Tamil Nadu election result is as per the Exit poll prediction. DMK+ is set to form government in the state as of now.

The latest Tamil Nadu election result shows end of 10 year rule of AIADMK in state. As of 12:30 PM, the official Election Commission website shows DMK ahead in 118 seats, AIADMK ahead in 80 seats, BJP on 4 and Indian National Congress on 12 seats. 

Here is the summary of the Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election which was published on 29th April:

Polling agency            
DMK+ AIADMK+ AMMK+ MNM+ NTK Others
Republic TV - CNX 160 - 170 58 - 68 4 - 6 0 - 2
ABP - CVoter 160 - 172 58 - 70 0 - 4 0 - 2 0 - 3
India Today - Axis My India 175 - 195 38 - 54 1 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 1
India Ahead - P MARQ 165 - 190 40 - 65 1 - 3              1 - 6
News24 - Today's Chanakya 164 - 186 46 - 68                   0 - 6
SPICK NEWS - MCV Network 146 85 2 1 0
Thanthi TV 133 68

Summary of Opinion Polls 

  When DMK+ AIADMK+ Others Error in 2016
MCV Spick March 158 74 2 NA
Puthiya Thalaimurai March 154 80 0 -17
Times Now C Voter March 177 49 8 -6
Chintamani-Election.in March 110 110 14 NA
Average March  150 78 6  
Crowdwisdom360 Feb 120 105 9 NA
ABP CVoter March 165 57 12 NA

Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices

DMK to win 115+ Seats: Price: 79, High Probability

DMK to win 135+ Seats: Price: 50, Medium Probability

Most likely to win seat by a big margin

MK Stalin: Price: 64, Medium Probability (Trending lower)

O Paneerselvam: Price: 51, Medium Probability (Trending lower)

EK Palanisami: Price: 51, Medium Probability


Google Trends

In 2019 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties - AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 51% of the share of search, the two UPA parties - DMK and INC had 49% of the share of Google Search

In 2021 election day, the 3 Current NDA parties - AIADMK, BJP and PMK together had 44% of the share of search, the two UPA parties - DMK and INC had 56% of the share of Google Search


Tamil Nadu Election Exit Polls 2021: Latest News

LiveMint: Tamil Nadu polls saw higher spend on Google-ads than 2019 General Elections

Times Now: 'Not a mandatory drug': Tamil Nadu government on Remdesivir after demand shoots up amid Covid crisis

Times of India: Covid-19 in Tamil Nadu: Doubling rate dips from 173 to 48 days in three weeks

Satta bazaar prediction of Assembly Elections 2021: BJP to form next govts in West Bengal, Assam & Puducherry

Check out electionpromises.in to keep track of TN Election promises


தமிழ் பதிப்பை இங்கே படியுங்கள்

Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Poll 2021: Summary

The AIADMK alliance appears to be struggling with none of the polls showing them ahead of even close. The economic performance has been ordinary. The CM is suffering from very low approval ratings. At 37% he is one of the worst performing Chief Ministers in India. In January he had gained 11% in his rating as compared to December 2020 rating. However, in February there has been no change in his preference rating. However, his rank in the Best Chief Minister List in India declined. From 10th position last month he is now at 16th position this month.


Will DMK alliance win the upcoming Tamil Nadu election? Click on the image below to mark your prediction

 


Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll: Analysis

1. MCV Network Spick Media

DMK alliance seems to be comfortable placed to win the upcoming the Tamil Nadu Assembly election. The recent poll released by MCV Network-Spick Media gives DMK+ 158 seats with 43.6% of vote share.  ADMK alliance may get around 34.04% vote share which may translate to just 74 seats. 

AMMK may win 2 seats while Kamal Hasan's MNM may fail to open their account.

2. Chintamani Elections.in

The opinion poll by Chintamani Elections.in does not give any clear winner for upcoming Tamil Nadu election. The poll show both the alliance winning 105-115 seats with Others winning 14-24 seats in upcoming Tamil Nadu election.

3. APT Research Group

On 22nd March, APT Research Group released its Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll for Puthiya Thalaimurai TV. The poll gives a clear mandate to MK Stalin's DMK. As per the poll, DMK+ may win around 151-158 seats wihile AIADMK+ may have to settle for only 76-83 seats.

4. ABP C Voters 

ABP C Voters in its new poll published on 15th March give a massive egde to DMK+ in Tamil Nadu. As per the DMK+ may win whopping 161-169 seats while AIADMK+ may just win 53-61 seats. Kamal Hasan's MNM may get around 2-6 seats with AMMK may get 1-5 seats.

5. Times Now CVoter

Times Now C-Voter predicts DMK-led UPA will wrest Tamil Nadu from the AIADMK-led NDA. As per the poll DMK-Congress alliance may win 158 seats while AIADMK-BJP alliance may win only 65 seats. In 2016 AIADMK had won 136 seats.

6. Thanti TV

Thanti TV recently conducted a survey in state of Tamil Nadu and found that AIADMK is closing in. Not only this the popularity of CM E Paliniswamy has increased drastically. As per the survey, 47 percent of the respondent said that the opposition, DMK would form the government while 41% said that ruling AIADMK would return to power.

As for the CM Preference rating, 47% favored MK Stalin as CM while 42% favored EPS, a massive 9% increase from December 2020 to February 2021.

7. Crowdwisdom360 Poll

Crowdwisdom360 predicts - DMK+: 120 seats, NDA: 105 seats. Vote Share: DMK+ 42.5%, NDA: 38.1%. Latest Tamil Nadu Election Opinion poll show a win for DMK alliance.  Crowdwisdom360 completed its opinion poll survey in 15 districts. The above data is based upon the recent survey result.

Methodology of Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll: Wisdom of the crowd method (small samples). This survey is different from traditional surveys because we do not ask respondents who they are likely to vote. Instead, respondents are chosen for their understanding of the political situation and can be anyone from the crowd - it is hence called the wisdom of the crowd. A little analytics is used to remove bias. We predicted 70% of the seats accurately in Bihar with 90% of the rest ending with a margin of 1000 votes. Here are the results of the 15 Districts
Constituency Type District Predicted Winner
Dr.Radhakrishnan Nagar GEN Chennai AIADMK
Perambur GEN Chennai DMK
Kolathur GEN Chennai DMK
Villivakkam GEN Chennai DMK
Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar SC Chennai DMK
Egmore SC Chennai DMK
Royapuram GEN Chennai AIADMK
Harbour GEN Chennai DMK
Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni GEN Chennai DMK
Thousand Lights GEN Chennai DMK
Anna Nagar GEN Chennai DMK
Virugampakkam GEN Chennai AIADMK
Saidapet GEN Chennai DMK
Thiyagarayanagar GEN Chennai AIADMK
Mylapore GEN Chennai AIADMK
Velachery GEN Chennai AIADMK
Tittagudi (SC) SC Cuddalore Too Close
Vridhachalam GEN Cuddalore AIADMK
Neyveli GEN Cuddalore DMK
Panruti GEN Cuddalore AIADMK
Cuddalore GEN Cuddalore AIADMK
Kurinjipadi GEN Cuddalore DMK
Bhuvanagiri GEN Cuddalore AIADMK
Chidambaram GEN Cuddalore Too Close
Kattumannarkoil(SC) SC Cuddalore DMK
Palani GEN Dindigul DMK 
Oddanchatram GEN Dindigul DMK
Athoor GEN Dindigul DMK
Nilakkottai SC Dindigul AIADMK
Natham GEN Dindigul AIADMK
Dindigul GEN Dindigul DMK
Vedasandur GEN Dindigul AIADMK
Erode (East) GEN Erode DMK
Erode (West) GEN Erode DMK
Modakkurichi GEN Erode AIADMK
Dharapuram (SC) SC Erode AIADMK
Kangayam GEN Erode DMK
Perundurai GEN Erode AIADMK
Bhavani GEN Erode AIADMK
Anthiyur GEN Erode DMK
Gobichettipalayam GEN Erode AIADMK
Bhavanisagar SC Erode DMK
Melur GEN Madurai Too Close
Madurai East GEN Madurai DMK
Sholavandan SC Madurai Too Close
Madurai North GEN Madurai DMK
Madurai South GEN Madurai AIADMK
Madurai Central GEN Madurai DMK
Madurai West GEN Madurai AIADMK
Thiruparankundram GEN Madurai AIADMK
Thirumangalam GEN Madurai AIADMK
Usilampatti GEN Madurai AIADMK
Thiruvidaimarudur SC Thanjavur DMK
Kumbakonam GEN Thanjavur DMK
Papanasam GEN Thanjavur DMK
Thiruvaiyaru GEN Thanjavur AIADMK
Orathanadu GEN Thanjavur AIADMK
Pattukkottai GEN Thanjavur Too Close
Peravurani GEN Thanjavur AIADMK
Gummidipoondi GEN Thiruvallur DMK
Ponneri SC Thiruvallur AIADMK
Thiruvallur GEN Thiruvallur DMK
Poonamallee SC Thiruvallur AIADMK
Kulithalai GEN Tiruchirappalli Too Close
Manapparai GEN Tiruchirappalli AIADMK
Srirangam GEN Tiruchirappalli AIADMK
Tiruchirappalli (West) GEN Tiruchirappalli DMK
Tiruchirappalli (East) GEN Tiruchirappalli DMK
Thiruverumbur GEN Tiruchirappalli DMK
Lalgudi GEN Tiruchirappalli DMK
Manachanallur GEN Tiruchirappalli AIADMK
Musiri GEN Tiruchirappalli AIADMK
Thuraiyur SC Tiruchirappalli DMK
Gingee GEN Viluppuram AIADMK
Mailam GEN Viluppuram AIADMK
Tindivanam SC Viluppuram AIADMK
Vanur SC Viluppuram AIADMK
Villupuram GEN Viluppuram AIADMK
Vikravandi GEN Viluppuram AIADMK
Tirukkoyilur GEN Viluppuram DMK
Ulundurpettai GEN Viluppuram AIADMK
Rishivandiyam GEN Viluppuram DMK
Sankarapuram GEN Viluppuram DMK
Kallakurichi SC Viluppuram Too Close
Mettuppalayam GEN Coimbatore AIADMK
Avanashi (SC) SC Coimbatore Too Close
Tiruppur (North) GEN Coimbatore Too Close
Tiruppur (South) GEN Coimbatore DMK
Palladam GEN Coimbatore AIADMK
Sulur GEN Coimbatore DMK
Kavundampalayam GEN Coimbatore DMK
Coimbatore (North) GEN Coimbatore DMK
Thondamuthur GEN Coimbatore AIADMK
Coimbatore (South) GEN Coimbatore AIADMK
Singanallur GEN Coimbatore DMK
Kinathukadavu GEN Coimbatore DMK
Pollachi GEN Coimbatore DMK
Valparai SC Coimbatore DMK
Udumalaipettai GEN Coimbatore AIADMK
Madathukulam GEN Coimbatore DMK
Shozhinganallur GEN Kancheepuram DMK
Alandur GEN Kancheepuram Too Close
Sriperumbudur SC Kancheepuram AIADMK
Pallavaram GEN Kancheepuram DMK
Tambaram GEN Kancheepuram DMK
Chengalpattu GEN Kancheepuram Too Close
Thiruporur GEN Kancheepuram AIADMK
Cheyyur SC Kancheepuram AIADMK
Madurantakam SC Kancheepuram AIADMK
Uthiramerur GEN Kancheepuram DMK
Kancheepuram GEN Kancheepuram Too Close
Gangavalli SC Salem DMK
Attur SC Salem AIADMK
Yercaud ST Salem DMK
Omalur GEN Salem Too Close
Mettur GEN Salem Too Close
Edappadi GEN Salem AIADMK
Sankari GEN Salem AIADMK
Salem (West) GEN Salem DMK
Salem (North) GEN Salem DMK
Salem (South) GEN Salem DMK
Veerapandi GEN Salem DMK
Gummidipoondi GEN Thiruvallur DMK
Ponneri SC Thiruvallur AIADMK
Thiruvallur GEN Thiruvallur DMK
Poonamallee SC Thiruvallur AIADMK
Vilathikulam GEN Thoothukkudi AIADMK
Thoothukkudi GEN Thoothukkudi DMK
Tiruchendur GEN Thoothukkudi Too Close
Srivaikuntam GEN Thoothukkudi AIADMK
Ottapidaram SC Thoothukkudi DMK
Kovilpatti GEN Thoothukkudi DMK
Kilpennathur GEN Tiruvannamalai DMK
Kalasapakkam GEN Tiruvannamalai AIADMK
Cheyyar GEN Tiruvannamalai AIADMK
Sholingur GEN Vellore DMK

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Analysis

1. AIADMK is performing better than Lok Sabha election 2019

2. AIADMK Performance has improved over the last 2 months

AIADMK was in pits during the Lok Sabha election in 2019 and after facing a further setback after the COVID crisis, they are gradually fashioning a recovery.  

It is possible that as number of COVID cases reduces and TN returns to normal, the anti-incumbency is falling. We can see this in the improvements on Google Trends. Also, TN seems to be improving rapidly on GST collections which means the economy is recovering faster than most states. At the moment the data suggests that  AIADMK is most likely to lose power in 2021. However, as things stand today, it does not appear to be the landslide we saw in the Lok Sabha Election or even expected two months ago.One important point to note is that AIADMK has a much deeper base than DMK (read this analysis). So it has greater ability to bounce back than the DMK. That is one reason we keep seeing AIADMK keeps recovering everytime they are down. It remains to be seen if the AIADMK along with BJP can fashion a victory from the jaws of defeat in the next 5 months


Tamil Nadu Election 2016 Overall Result Analysis

AIADMK+: 134 Seats (41.8% Vote Share)

DMK+: 98 Seats (39.3% Share)

*Elections was held only 232 seats in May 2016

How AIADMK and DMK fared in 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly election region wise?

Urban and Semi-Urban regions

AIADMK+: 85 Seats

DMK+: 57 Seats

AIADMK has done quite well in Semi-Urban parts of TN while DMK was evens in Urban and Rural Tamil Nadu

Rural Seats

AIADMK: 49 Seats

DMK+: 41 Seats

Tamil Nadu Election 2021 Opinion Poll: Analysis of previous Tamil Nadu Election Results

- Since 1977, DMK has won more than 35% of the vote share just once, AIADMK has won it five times

- After 1996, AIADMK has increased its vote share in every single election. DMK on the other hand has not crossed 35% in a single election since 1996

- The last time DMK won a majority on its own was in 1996, AIADMK on the other hand has won a majority on its own 3 times out of the last 4 elections

- The DMK's weakness is mostly in Western TN (Kongu belt) and Central region where it won just 14 seats versus AIADMK which won 43 SeatsThis will be a key battle ground in 2021. There are 13 seats here which the AIADMK has won with less than 5% of the margin and 23 seats with less than 7.5% of the margin

- AIADMK had huge leads in urban seats, specifically semi-urban seats. In urban seats AIADMK led DMK 85 to 57 seats

- The other area of strength for AIADMK was women where it lead DMK by a wide margin of 11%. 

The ongoing Coronavirus crisis have helped AIADMK to improve its stature in the state initially. However the growing numbers in the state has led to a decrease in his popularity of Chief Minister K. Palaniswami. A recent poll by Ormax Media said that just 48% of respondents in Tamil Nadu approved of the job done by Mr. Palaniswami. This is one of the lowest in the country.

Chief Minister K Palaniswami has been trying to position himself as the son of the soil. He has successfully been able to douse the internal fights in his party along with it he has been able to place himself as an able administrator before the people of Tamil Nadu.  

After the sweep in Lok Sabha election 2019, DMK has been on Cloud 9. However, one must not forget that along with Lok Sabha election, by-polls to 22 vacant assembly election was held. Out of 22, DMK had won 13 in last election and AIADMK could manage 9.

Tamil Nadu Election 2021 Opinion Poll: Exit Polls in 2016 and their Accuracy

In 2016 Tamil Nadu Assembly election, AIADMK returned to power despite facing a 5-years of anti-incumbency. Of 234 seats, AIADMK won 136 seats while DMK won 98 seats. Here is what exit polls predicted for Tamil Nadu election in 2016:

  AIADMK DMK BJP
India Today-Axis 89–101 124–140 0–3
News Nation 95–99 120-118 0–1
C Voter 139 78 0
NewsX 90 140 0
ABP Nielsen 95 132 1
NDTV Poll of Polls 103 120 0
Chanakya 90 140 0
Spick News 142 87 0

The exit polls for Tamil Nadu election 2016 were pretty much inaccurate. Except a few agencies, most to them predicted a win for DMK. Most of the exit polls considered the usual tendency of Tamil Nadu that is change of government after every five years. However, in 2016 it was AMMA Jaylalitaa who single handedly spearheaded AIADMK towards victory.

Even the opinion polls showed DMK under the late M Karunanidhi dethroning AIADMK government. 

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