Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party created a political earthquake in Delhi after its formation in 2013. The party in its first ever election won 28 assembly seats and went on to form Government in Delhi with the help of Congress. However, the government lasted only for 50 days and Delhi was again thrown in for election. The second election for Delhi Assembly was completely fought under the shadow of Modi wave, but Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party sailed through the election registering one of the massive victories in the history of Delhi. His party won 67 of 70 Assembly seats and Arvind Kejriwal became the Chief Minister of Delhi once again and this time with majority on its own. It looks now that Kejriwal looks all set to return as CM in Delhi Election 2020
Kejriwal was struggling until 2017
Kejriwal and team could not maintain their political lead in Delhi for long. Two years down the line, in Delhi corporation election Aam Aadmi Party was completely decimated. The loss did put up a question mark on the future of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi politics.
The party of 67 assembly seats received a major setback again in Lok Sabha election. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party failed to win a single Lok Sabha in Delhi. Added to it, the party lost three of its four Lok Sabha seats that it had won in Punjab in 2014. The loss cast a doubt on the return of Arvind Kejriwal as Chief Minister after Delhi Election 2020. In fact, post the landslide for the BJP in Delhi, things looked gloomy for Kejriwal
Why Kejriwal ?
There are 5 reasons why Kejriwal is set to return to power
- Emphasis on Delivery after Chaotic beginning: After a chaotic start, the Kejriwal Government went back to the drawing board and focussed well on four major issues - Power, Water, Education and Healthcare. While Power and water have a direct impact on its poor vote base. Education and Healthcare attract all voters. In general the opinion on the Government has been positive on these elements
- Delhi Economy is in good shape: Delhi has done well inspite of its per capita being three times National Average. During the last 4 years, Delhi's per capita has increased by 46% (same as national average)
- BJP's performance is patchy: Whether it is other State Governments, NDMC or even the Central Government, BJP performance on most issues has been patchy. At best, voters could vote for BJP for National Security issues but they already did that in the Lok Sabha Election
- BJP struggling in State elections: Regional Parties and even Congress are able to bridge the funding gap with the BJP in State elections. Which is why BJP has been struggling to win State elections after the Euphoria of 2014. For example, since January 2018, BJP has won just two State elections outright - Arunachal and Tripura
- No major rivals of Kejriwal in Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi maintains a massive lead over CM Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi however, none of Manoj Tiwari, Gautam Gambhir, Vijay Goel or any of the Congress potentials have shown to be able to go head to head with Kejriwal. This may change should there be a clear cut announcement from the BJP but as of today there is no clarity
CrowdWisdom360's Prediction Market
However on our prediction platform, the Crowd have clearly indicated that Arvind Kejriwal will once again return as Chief Minister of Delhi in 2020. Our predictors are predicting his return as Chief Minister in large number. The prediction is one of our highest rated prediction.
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Predict: Will Arvind Kejriwal Return as Chief Minister of Delhi?
In contrast, there are few takers for BJP getting a majority in the state. Thus, it is clear that BJP lacks a leader who can compete with Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi.
Delhi election 2020 is couple of months from now. The schemes of Arvind Kejriwal's Government have been able to touch the lives of common man. The recent scheme of free bus and metro rides for women have increased his popularity. However, his way of handling the environmental issue of Delhi is treated with more criticism than appreciation. In a few months it will be clear whether Arvind Kejriwal will return as Chief Minister of Delhi once again or will his political career come to an end. As things stand today Kejriwal looks like being back in saddle in 2020