We predict the results of the Assembly Elections 2020-21 using Opinion Polls, Google Trends and Crowdwisdom360's opinion polls. We are covering 4 assembly elections
Assembly Election 2020 Updates : Kerala Opinion Poll Update
LDF is comfortable ahead at the moment
Crowdwisdom360 has surveyed 3 districts so far and here is the tally.
Three Districts Summary
2016: UDF: 7, LDF: 25
2021, UDF:9, LDF: 19
Kerala Assembly Election Prediction
A recent Opinion Poll by Asianet-Cfore confirmed that the Left Front could do the impossible and return to power next year. It was a close shave even in 2006 but this time they look better placed. The seat forecasts in the opinion poll are as follows
In the fantasy game, CM Pinarayi Vijayan is comfortably ahead at 62, Chandy is way behind at 44. However, it is clear that with 7-8 point shift, UDF could be ahead of LDF and Chandy or Chennithala could be CM instead of Vijayan. In fact even the CFore Opinion Poll shows a 1.5 to 2% swing to UDF (Congress+) will shift the election in facour of UDF. So it is not all easy for Mr. Vijayan. The continued increase in cases as well as likely return of lakhs of Malayalis from Middle East can really mess up the situation for him.
BJP and TMC are par but BJP is likely to power ahead in the next few weeks.
In Bengal, Crowdwisdom360 has completed survey of more than 75 seats and here is the current status
Overall Tally: Purba Medinipur, Dakshin Dinajpur, Birbhum, Kolkata District and North-24 Parganas
2016, BJP: 0, TMC: 60
2021, BJP: 36, TMC: 34
In a recent opinion poll by ABP Majha CNX, Mamata is still ahead of BJP with a vote share gap of about 6%
Mamata is ahead primarily because of BJP's weakness in South Bengal, Lack of strong leadership alternative to Mamata, BJP's own struggles with the economy while Mamata has done much better on the economy than most States.
Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Prediction
DMK is ahead of AIADMK but AIADMK is catching up
In Tamil Nadu, Crowdwisdom360 has completed 4 districts and a total of 45 seats. Here is the current status
Overall 2021 for 4 Districts
2016, AIADMK+ 27, DMK+ 12
2021, AIADMK+ 14, DMK+ 22
In sum, the results look quite good for regional parties whether it is DMK or TMC or AGP or AIUDF or even the Left Front in Kerala. Congress is in trouble everywhere with a sniffing chance in Assam and Kerala.