Assembly Elections 2021 Predictions, Opinion Polls

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Assembly Elections 2021 Predictions, Opinion Polls

15 Dec 2020
Assembly Elections 2021 Predictions, Opinion Polls
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Crowdwisdom360
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We predict the results of the Assembly Elections 2020-21 using Opinion Polls, Google Trends and Crowdwisdom360's opinion polls.  We are covering 4 assembly elections

  1. Kerala Assembly Election
  2. Bengal Assembly Election
  3. Tamil Nadu Assembly Election
  4. Assam Assembly Election

Assembly Election 2020 Updates : Kerala Opinion Poll Update

LDF is comfortable ahead at the moment

Crowdwisdom360 has surveyed 3 districts so far and here is the tally. 

Three Districts Summary

2016: UDF: 7, LDF: 25

2021, UDF:9, LDF: 19

You can read details of seat level predictions by clicking here

Kerala Assembly Election Prediction

A recent Opinion Poll by Asianet-Cfore confirmed that the Left Front could do the impossible and return to power next year. It was a close shave even in 2006 but this time they look better placed. The seat forecasts in the opinion poll are as follows

In the fantasy game, CM Pinarayi Vijayan is comfortably ahead at 62, Chandy is way behind at 44. However, it is clear that with 7-8 point shift, UDF could be ahead of LDF and Chandy or Chennithala could be CM instead of Vijayan. In fact even the CFore Opinion Poll shows a 1.5 to 2% swing to UDF (Congress+) will shift the election in facour of UDF. So it is not all easy for Mr. Vijayan. The continued increase in cases as well as likely return of lakhs of Malayalis from Middle East can really mess up the situation for him.

Bengal Assembly Election Prediction

BJP and TMC are par but BJP is likely to power ahead in the next few weeks.  

In Bengal, Crowdwisdom360 has completed survey of more than 75 seats and here is the current status

Overall Tally: Purba Medinipur, Dakshin Dinajpur, Birbhum, Kolkata District and North-24 Parganas

2016, BJP: 0, TMC: 60

2021, BJP: 36, TMC: 34

You can read seat level predictions by clicking here

In a recent opinion poll by ABP Majha CNX, Mamata is still ahead of BJP with a vote share gap of about 6%

Mamata is ahead primarily because of BJP's weakness in South Bengal, Lack of strong leadership alternative to Mamata, BJP's own struggles with the economy while Mamata has done much better on the economy than most States.

Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Prediction

DMK is ahead of AIADMK but AIADMK is catching up

In Tamil Nadu, Crowdwisdom360 has completed 4 districts and a total of 45 seats. Here is the current status

Overall 2021 for 4 Districts

2016, AIADMK+ 27, DMK+ 12

2021, AIADMK+ 14, DMK+ 22

To read seat by seat predictions in Tamil Nadu, click here

In Assam, we believe BJP is marginally ahead of its rivals at the moment, read our detailed analysis here

In sum, the results look quite good for regional parties whether it is DMK or TMC or AGP or AIUDF or even the Left Front in Kerala. Congress is in trouble everywhere with a sniffing chance in Assam and Kerala. 

 

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