We predict the results of the Assembly Elections 2020-21 using Opinion Polls, Google Trends and Crowdwisdom360's fantasy gaming platform. Fantasy Gaming Platforms follow the concept of wisdom of the crowds. Users get rewarded bonuses for good performance by politicians whether on social media on google trends or on opinion polls. We are covering 5 assembly elections
Assembly Election 2020 Updates : Kerala Opinion Poll Update
Kerala election is around 8-9 months away. A recent opinion poll conducted by Crowdwisdom360 indicates the Congress backed UDF is gaining. The opinon poll was conducted in Aluppuzha District of Kerala which has 9 Assembly seats. Of the 9 seats in 2016 LDF have won 7 seats. As per the polls, LDF seems to retaining 4 seats of Aluppuzha district Cherthala, Ambalapuzha, Mavelikara and Chengannur - comfortably. In Alappuzha Assembly seat though Left seems to be leading as of now, there is a close fight between LDF and UDF.
UDF on the other hand seems to gain Aroor from LDF and Kuttanad from National Congress. UDF is comfortably retaining Haripad assembly seat. In Kayamkulam seat, there seems to be a close fight.
The data suggest that:
1. If alone in Alappuzha district LDF loses 2 seats , UDF may gain 21 more seats from rest of 13 districts of Kerala.
2. BJP led NDA is expected to gain in the upcoming assembly election with about 15% voteshare as per survey carried by Asianet, thus hurting both LDF and UDF alliance.
3. With Kuttanad going to UDF and Kayamkulam doubtful, an swing of 15% can be expected from LDF to UDF suggesting the total loss for LDF to be about 2.5% with UDF gaining 1.5%. This would translate into 67 seats for UDF, yet not enough for UDF to form government.
To conclude, LDF is losing momentum and UDF is gaining but gains don't translate into government change.
What are the Assembly Elections 2020-2021 Results Predictions?
On our platform, 100 means sureshot chance of winning the election and 0 means no chance of winning the election. Anything less than 50 means tough chance of winning the election. But if a politician is below 50, one must look at the rival as well. If the rival is also below 50, it means that election is highly unpredictable at the moment. Let us look at the predictions
In our last Bihar assembly election Opinion Poll analysis, it was clear that NDA was now heading towards a landslide in Bihar. In a Bihar Opinion Poll released later today, we will re-confirm the same. However, in the fantasy game, predictors have placed Nitish Kumar behind Tejashwi.
Nitish Kumar: 38
One big reason is the continued clashes between LJP and JD(U). On July 2nd, LJP fired a leader for saying there was NO problem in the coalition. Second big reason for the difference between the two is much higher citizen engagement outreach by Tejashwi. On 5th july, it was RJD founders day and Tejashwi was on the streets on a cycle. While this does not get direct engagement with voters, media coverage enables great reach and indirect engagement
Still, all this means that the election is volatile simply because the NDA alliance appears to be in some strife at the moment. BJP on its own cannot win Bihar. Nitish on his own cannot win Bihar either. Should the strife continue all the way until election day, NDA could actually be in trouble because of the alliance uncertainty. Amit Shah is unlikely to allow this.
A recent Opinion Poll by Asianet-Cfore confirmed that the Left Front could do the impossible and return to power next year. It was a close shave even in 2006 but this time they look better placed. The seat forecasts in the opinion poll are as follows
In the fantasy game, CM Pinarayi Vijayan is comfortably ahead at 62, Chandy is way behind at 44. However, it is clear that with 7-8 point shift, UDF could be ahead of LDF and Chandy or Chennithala could be CM instead of Vijayan. In fact even the CFore Opinion Poll shows a 1.5 to 2% swing to UDF (Congress+) will shift the election in facour of UDF. So it is not all easy for Mr. Vijayan. The continued increase in cases as well as likely return of lakhs of Malayalis from Middle East can really mess up the situation for him.
In a recent opinion poll by ABP Majha CNX, Mamata is still ahead of BJP with a vote share gap of about 6%
Mamata is ahead primarily because of BJP's weakness in South Bengal, Lack of strong leadership alternative to Mamata, BJP's own struggles with the economy while Mamata has done much better on the economy than most States.
In the fantasy game, Mamata is ahead at 41 while Dilip Ghosh is at 31. With 9-10 months to go for the election, no one is willing to hand over the election on a platter to Mamata Banerjee. This election will be volatile and unpredictable until the very end even if Mamata remains ahead until counting day.
No opinion Polls have been conducted in Tamil Nadu but if the local body elections and google trends are an indication it is DMK this time. On our fantasy game platform, Stalin is marginally ahead at 63 at the moment. One reason is that unlike Tejashwi who is out on the street engaging with voters, Stalin has played a much lower key waiting for Corona to end. EPS Palaniswamy on the other hand is in the news everyday on account of Corona which is one reason why EPS is quite close to Stalin on both Google Trends and on the fantasy game. However, things don't look great for him going ahead given the deteriorating TN economy, divisions within the AIADMK and the close margin of victory in the 2016 election.
In an opinion poll carried out in March, NDA was just about scraping through to form the Government in Assam (about 60 seats versus Congress at 48 Seats). The biggest challenge for the NDA is the very ordinary performance of the economy in Assam apart from the chaos induced by CAA and NRC. Our very detailed analysis explained why BJP was in trouble in Assam.
On our platform while Sonowal is not above 50, he is way ahead of his rivals. Sonowal is at 47 while Gogoi is at 17. This is in line with the opinion poll results. While NDA may land up with about 50% of the seats, congress will end up with about 48 seats which is not enough to form a Government unless it allies with Badruddin Ajmal, a low possibility.
In sum, the results look quite good for regional parties whether it is DMK or TMC or AGP or AIUDF or even the Left Front in Kerala. Congress is in trouble everywhere with a sniffing chance in Assam and Kerala. NDA looks formidable in Bihar and just about scraping through in Assam.