Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 : NDA may win big but tough fight in Seats

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Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 : NDA may win big but tough fight in Seats

28 Sep 2020
Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 : NDA may win big but tough fight in Seats
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Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 - Read detailed coverage of Bihar Assembly Election 2020. Our analysis covers 5 opinion polls and gives u a perspective of the CM race, the overall seat perspective, region wise seat perspective and district wise seat perspective. Read on...

1. Bihar Opinion Poll 2020: ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll

ABP News CVoter have released an opinion poll today, here are the results

Seemachal

NDA: 16 (+4)

RJD+: 6 (-5)

Others: 2

Anga Pradesh

NDA: 16 (+1)

RJD+: 9 (-3)

Others: 2

Mithilanchal

NDA: 29

RJD+: 18

Others: 3

Magadh Bhojpur

NDA: 41

RJD+: 22

Others: 6

Northern Bihar

NDA: 49

RJD+: 19

Others: 5

Net as of now

NDA: 151

RJD: 74

Others: 18

Sample Size: 25000. 243 Seats were covered

Which is the best opinion polling company when it comes to Bihar?

 

2. Bihar Election 2020 Opinion Poll by Prashnam

A new Poll by Technology entrepreneur Rajesh Jain's Prashanam has given Tejaswhi the edge over Nitish but overall NDA is ahead significantly

When asked to choose head to head

39% chose Tejashwi Yadav.
36% chose Nitish Kumar.
25% chose some other or undecided.

When Sushil Modi was also included in the list

35% chose Tejashwi Yadav.
31% chose Nitish Kumar.
12% chose Sushil Modi.
22% chose some other or undecided.

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If we look at the two surveys, one consistent finding is Nitish Kumar has not crossed 40%. Second finding is many voters have not decided yet. The main mis-match is with Tejashwi's ratings. This will probably settle down closer to the Prashnam number because even the TV9 survey is predicting about 40% vote share for RJD alliance.

3. Bihar Election 2020 Opinion Poll by VMR TV9 Bharatvarsh

A new poll by VMR TV9 Bharatvarsh puts NDA significantly ahead of the RJD alliance

Here is the case-wise break up and comparison with 2019

Upper

2019: NDA: 72%, RJD+: 10% 2

020: NDA: 73%, RJD+: 24%

OBC (All)

2019: NDA: 56%, RJD+: 28%

2020: NDA: 48%, RJD+: 36%

SC

2019: NDA: 63%, RJD+: 18%

2020: NDA: 41%, RJD+: 42%

Muslims

2019: NDA: 13%, RJD+: 65%

2020: NDA: 20%, RJD+: 70%

2019 data is from India Today Axis Poll, 2020 data is from VMR TV9 Bharatvarsh Poll

NDA seems to be losing tthe most amongst Scheduled Castes which may explain the hard bargaining by the Paswans. 

Overall, NDA is about 9% ahead, enough to win between 135 and 167 seats, 

In terms of preference for Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar is ahead at 39%, Tejashwi is at 21%. 29% indicated no preference at the moment

Overall, this poll is good news for NDA

4. Bihar Election 2020 Opinion poll by VDPA

A new Bihar opinion poll 2020 by VDPA associates gives NDA a majority

NDA: 109-138
RJD+: 73-97

5. Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 by Crowdwisdom360- District Wise Picture

Samastipur District

Kalyanpur

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Warisnagar

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Samastipur

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Ujiarpur

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Morwa

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA (Close)

Sarairanjan

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Mohiuddinnagar

2015: RJD+, 2020: Others

Bibhutipur

2015: JD(U), 2020: RJD+ (Close)

Rosera

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Hasanpur

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Summary

2015, NDA: 6, RJD+: 4

2020, NDA: 6, RJD+: 3

Siwan District

Siwan

2015: BJP, 2020: RJD+

Ziradei

2015: JD(U), 2020: RJD+

Darauli

2015: CPIML, 2020: RJD+

Raghunathpur

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Daraundha

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Barharia

2015: JD(U), 2020: Too Close

Gorjakothi

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Maharajganj

2015: JD(U), 2020: Too Close

Summary

2015, NDA: 5, RJD+: 2

2020, NDA: 1, RJD+: 5

Madhubani District

Harlakhi

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Benipatti

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Khajauli

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Babubarhi

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Bisfi

2015:RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Madhubani

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Rajnagar

2015: BJP, 2020: NDA

Jhanjharpur

2015: RJD+, 2020: NDA

Phulparas

2015: JD(U), 2020: NDA

Laukaha

2015: JD(U), 2020: Tied

Summary

2015, NDA: 4, RJD+: 6

2020, NDA: 8, RJD+: 1

Muzaffarpur District

Gaighat

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Aurai

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Minapur

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Bochaha

2015: IND, 2020: NDA

Sakra

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Kurhani

2015: BJP, 2020: BJP

Muzaffarpur

2015: BJP, 2020: BJP

Kanti

2015: IND, 2020: RJD+

Baruraj

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Paroo

2015: BJP, 2020: RJD+

Sahebganj

2015: RJD+, 2020: RJD+

Summary

2015, NDA: 3, RJD+: 6

2020, NDA: 3, RJD+: 8

Banka District

Amarpur

2015: JDU, 2020: RJD+

Dhauraiya

2015: JDU, 2020: RJD+

Banka

2015: BJP, 2020: RJD+

Katoria

2015: RJD, 2020: RJD+

Belhar

2015: JDU, 2020: RJD+

Summary

2015, NDA: 4, RJD+: 1

2020, NDA: 0, RJD+: 5

Paschim Champaran district

2015: NDA won 6 out of 9 Seats, RJD won 2

2020: NDA will win 5 out of 9 seats, RJD 4

The north-west district has a large Hindu population of close to 78% and with NDA looking to stitch the upper caste+ OBC votes like it always does, it will be interesting as to who will win as the situation evolves due to COVID and problems with the economy. 

Araria District

2015: NDA won 4 out of 6 Seats, RJD won 2

2020: NDA will win 2 out of 6 seats, RJD 4

Araria is a north-eastern border district which has a sizeable population of minorities especially the Muslims which is seen as the vote-bank for RJD

Nalanda District

Seats likely to be Comfortably won by NDA

1. Bihar Sharif

2. Rajgir

3. Harnaut

4. Nalanda (Narrow win, deteriorated from last month)

Seats likely to be won by MGB

5. Hilsa (Was bad two months ago for NDA, improved last month and then deteriorated, now with MGB)

6. Islampur (Deteriorated over two months towards MGB)

Tie

7. Asthawan

Overall, the situation has gone from 7-0 in favour of NDA to 4-2 in favour of NDA. One big reason could be Nitish Kumar's poor handling of the Corona situation. In June, Nitish was rated at 50 in the Ormax CM survey. This fell to 41 in July

Total in 8 districts so far

Current House, NDA: 38, RJD+ 24

Predicted for 2020: NDA: 29, RJD+ 32

Overall so far there is 8 seat gain for the RJD. They need about 16 seats gain over 2015 to form the next Government. 

This is one of the few districts where RJD did not gain any seats. This is also a district where Pappu Yadav seems to be doing well.

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Check out our Bengal Opinion Poll and Kerala Opinion Polls completed in August.

Best CM of India Opinion Poll here

Read our coverage on Daily Hunt Here

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