Bihar Exit Polls 2020 had been released on Saturday. India's foremost pollster Axis is predicting a landslide for Tejashwi and his alliance is expected to win about 150 seats+_11 seats. The NDA is expected to win about 80 seats+_11 seats. In terms of vote share, the MGB alliance is winning a massive 44% vote share while NDA will win about 39% vote share. Tejashwi outperformed Nitish on CM preference by 5% points, 44% to 39%. If one was following our analysis 4 weeks ago, Tejashwi had outperformed Nitish for the first time on Google Trends.
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69-91 NDA
139-161 MGB
LJP 3-5
others 3-5 #IndiaTodayAxisPoll
While the NDA campaign had expected to struggle, this result would be a shock even to them. The JD(U) was expected to struggle after LJP had placed candidates against them in 140+ seats. However, should the NDA end up with 80 seats, even the BJP is unlikely to cross the 2015 figure. Since Crowdwisdom360 has been tracking seat level data from July onwards, we feel BJP's conversion will be atleast two times better than JD(U). One more thing, if you look at our seat level polls below, you will notice that many seats are too close to call. So even though the much respected Axis says it is 150 seats, we still would suggest not to rule out a counting day surprise where NDA does better than these polls.
Axis Poll - Which issue mattered most?
Development - 42%
Unemployment - 30%
Inflation - 11%
PM Modi - 3%
Political Party - 3%
The Axis Poll is interesting in one way that most of our polls were throwing Unemployment and Corruption (local) as two major issues. In the Axis poll, development has emerged as a major issue suggesting that the slower economic growth in the last 5 years has slowed down the pace of development in the state. The unemployment rate state stood at about 12% during the 1st phase of polling which is reflected in the survey. When we read through the surveys, it is clear that most of the citizens were angry and wanted change. It needs to be seen if these numbers are shown on counting day
Today's Chanakya is back after a long time. They are projecting an even aggressive number for RJD and Congress at 180 seats. In this situation, Congress will win more seats than BJP, shocking if true. One thing is certain, Today's Chanakya and Axis together have never gone wrong in a poll. This could be the first but it has not happened before. Which means that it is more likely that Nitish Kumar is going end up with one of the worst results in the last 15 years.
Coming to the caste equation, Compared to 2019 (Axis Poll), RJD+ increased share by 1
5% points amongst Muslims (Today's Chanakya)
by 13% points amongst Yadavs (TC)
by about 10% points amongst Non-Yadav OBCs (TC)
by 9% points amongst Upper Caste (TC)
by 7% points amongst Dalits (TC)
So, most of the gains have occurred in the core base. Also, our hypothesis is that the some core NDA voters may have stayed out of this election because they were unhappy with Nitish Kumar.
How was the age wise swing for RJD+?
18-25 years, +15% points
26-35 years, +19% points
36-50 years, +13% points
51-60 years, +13% points
> 60 years, +11% points
BJP – JDU+ 55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others 8 ± 4 Seats
JKB which is a pro-BJP pollster has also given MGB abotu 128 seats, a slim majority. These are conservative numbers but one should not dismiss any pollsters numbers in this environment
MGB - 118-138
NDA - 91-117
Chintamani Exit Poll
NDA: 120-127
MGB: 71-81
LJP: 12-23
Others: 19-27
MGB - 120
NDA - 116
Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll for Seat Level Picture - Wisdom of Crowd Survey
Gaya District
In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 4
In 2020, it could end NDA-5, RJD+5
Banka District
In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 1
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 1
Patna District
It was 8-5 in favor of NDA in 2015, Patna District is likely to end 9-5 in favor of RJD+ in 2020
Nalanda District
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 1
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4
Paschim Champaran
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 2
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 6, RJD+ to win 3
Muzaffarpur
In 2015, NDA won 3, RJD+ won 6
In 2020, NDA 6, RJD+4
Samastipur
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 4
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 5, RJD+ to win 5, RJD+ could end up with more
Assuming RJD bias in our poll, NDA should end 4 seats and RJD+ with 6 seats
Araria
In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 2
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 1, RJD+ to win 5
Madhubani District
In 2015, it was RJD+ 5, NDA 4 and Others 1
In 2010, it looks like 5-5 for both the alliances but quite volatile
Siwan District
In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 3
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4
Vaishali District
2015, NDA - 3, RJD+ 4
2020, NDA- 1, RJD+ 6
Darbhanga District
2015, NDA - 6, RJD+ 4
2020, NDA- 4, RJD+ 6
12 Districts
2015, NDA - 60, RJD+ 41
2020, NDA- 47, RJD+ 58
Extrapolating to all Seats,
2015, NDA - 125, RJD+ 110
2020, NDA- 91 (Original was 105), RJD+ 144 (Updated after other exit polls were released, original was 120)
Shashi Singh Phase 1 Update
NDA- 27 ± 04
UPA- 43 ± 04
LJP- 02 ± 01
BSP- 01 ± 01
IND- 01 ± 01
Shashi Singh Phase 2 Update
NDA- 34 Confirmed, 22 Close
UPA- 27 Confirmed, 26 Close seats
LJP - 4
IND- 5
Shashi Singh Phase 3 Update
NDA- 22 Confirmed, 32 Close
UPA- 19 Confirmed, 37 Close seats
LJP: 3
Others: 2
Phase 1+2+3
NDA - 83 Confirmed + 55(Close Contest)
UPA- 89 Confirmed + 63 (Close Contest)
LJP: 9
Others: 8
Upasana Singh - BJP Seat Predictions Only
She Predicts BJP will win 55 to 65 seats in Bihar, may be more if some close seats go in their favour. Here is her seat by seat analysis
Analysis of Bias in Exit Polls carried out in the last one year
We have taken exit polls of assembly elections in the last 12 months and bias towards NDA/BJP
Axis has a negative bias towards BJP of -6.5%. What this means is, BJP/NDA scores 6.5% more than what Axis Predicts. On the other extreme, Ipsos over predicts BJP/NDA seat forecast by 121%. Both Jan ki Baat and CVoter also have delivered forecasts that favour the BJP but not in line with results.
Let us now look at the track record of Exit Poll companies in the last few elections in Bihar
Here is a rating of Exit Polling Companies in the last two assembly elections and Lok Sabh elections (2010, 2014, 2015, 2019) in Bihar
Bihar Exit Polls 2020: Summary for last 4 elections
2010 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Elections Exit Polls
In the 2010 election, the results were as follows
NDA: 206 seats
RJD+: 25 Seats
CSDS was closest to the mark with 193 seats for NDA.
1. IBN Week CSDS : 193 seats for NDA
Star Nielsen: 148 for NDA
Sadhana CVoter: 147 for NDA
2014 Bihar Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls
In the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, the results were as follows
NDA: 31
JD(U): 2
RJD+: 7
Some exit polls were accurate
1. India TV Cvoter: 29 seats for NDA
TimesNow ORG: 28 seats for NDA
ABP Nielsen: 28 seats for NDA
NDTV Hansa: 22 seats for NDA
IBN CSDS: 24 seats for NDA
Headlines Today Cicero: 20 seats for NDA
The most accurate ocurate exit pollster was CVoter and Today's Chanakya (We are unable to trace their Bihar election and our estimate of accuracy for Today's Chankya in 2014 is based purely on memory)
2015 Vidhan Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls
In the 2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar, the results were as follows
MGB Alliance: 178 Seats
NDA Alliance: 58 Seats
Only one Exit poll got it right
1. IBN Axis: 176 seats for MGB
ABP Nielsen: 130 seats for MGB
India Today Cicero: 117 seats for MGB
NDTV Hansa: 110 seats for MGB
India TV TimesNow CVoter: 122 seats for MGB
News 24: Today's Chanakya: 83 seats for MGB
2019 Lok Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the results were as follows
NDA: 39 Seats
UPA: 1 Seat
Exit Polls were quite accurate
1. India Today Axis MyIndia: 39 seats for NDA
TimesNow VMR: 30 seats for NDA
ABP Nielsen: 35 seats for NDA
Republic TV CVoter: 33 seats for NDA
Republic TV Jan Ki Baat: 30 seats for NDA
Newsnation: 30 seats for NDA
Chintamani 5 Dots: 32 seats for NDA
In sum, Exit Polls have been more accurate predicting Lok Sabha elections than Assembly elections. However, even in Exit Polls, atleast one pollster has come close to the result. Axis so far has the best track record across all pollsters.