Bihar Exit Polls 2020 had been released on Saturday. India's foremost pollster Axis is predicting a landslide for Tejashwi and his alliance is expected to win about 150 seats+_11 seats. The NDA is expected to win about 80 seats+_11 seats. In terms of vote share, the MGB alliance is winning a massive 44% vote share while NDA will win about 39% vote share. Tejashwi outperformed Nitish on CM preference by 5% points, 44% to 39%. If one was following our analysis 4 weeks ago, Tejashwi had outperformed Nitish for the first time on Google Trends.

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India Today Aaj Tak Axis Poll

69-91 NDA

139-161 MGB

LJP 3-5

others 3-5 #IndiaTodayAxisPoll

While the NDA campaign had expected to struggle, this result would be a shock even to them. The JD(U) was expected to struggle after LJP had placed candidates against them in 140+ seats. However, should the NDA end up with 80 seats, even the BJP is unlikely to cross the 2015 figure. Since Crowdwisdom360 has been tracking seat level data from July onwards, we feel BJP's conversion will be atleast two times better than JD(U). One more thing, if you look at our seat level polls below, you will notice that many seats are too close to call. So even though the much respected Axis says it is 150 seats, we still would suggest not to rule out a counting day surprise where NDA does better than these polls. 

Axis Poll - Which issue mattered most?

Development - 42%

Unemployment - 30%

Inflation - 11%

PM Modi - 3%

Political Party - 3%

The Axis Poll is interesting in one way that most of our polls were throwing Unemployment and Corruption (local) as two major issues. In the Axis poll, development has emerged as a major issue suggesting that the slower economic growth in the last 5 years has slowed down the pace of development in the state. The unemployment rate state stood at about 12% during the 1st phase of polling which is reflected in the survey. When we read through the surveys, it is clear that most of the citizens were angry and wanted change. It needs to be seen if these numbers are shown on counting day

Today's Chanakya is back after a long time. They are projecting an even aggressive number for RJD and Congress at 180 seats. In this situation, Congress will win more seats than BJP, shocking if true. One thing is certain, Today's Chanakya and Axis together have never gone wrong in a poll. This could be the first but it has not happened before. Which means that it is more likely that Nitish Kumar is going end up with one of the worst results in the last 15 years. 

Coming to the caste equation, Compared to 2019 (Axis Poll), RJD+ increased share by 1

5% points amongst Muslims (Today's Chanakya)

by 13% points amongst Yadavs (TC)

by about 10% points amongst Non-Yadav OBCs (TC)

by 9% points amongst Upper Caste (TC)

by 7% points amongst Dalits (TC)

So, most of the gains have occurred in the core base. Also, our hypothesis is that the some core NDA voters may have stayed out of this election because they were unhappy with Nitish Kumar. 

How was the age wise swing for RJD+?

18-25 years, +15% points

26-35 years, +19% points

36-50 years, +13% points

51-60 years, +13% points

> 60 years, +11% points

Today's Chanakya

BJP – JDU+ 55 ± 11 Seats

RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats

Others 8 ± 4 Seats

JKB which is a pro-BJP pollster has also given MGB abotu 128 seats, a slim majority. These are conservative numbers but one should not dismiss any pollsters numbers in this environment

Republic Jan ki Baat

MGB - 118-138

NDA - 91-117

Chintamani Exit Poll

Dainik Bhaskar Poll

NDA: 120-127

MGB: 71-81

LJP: 12-23

Others: 19-27

CVoter

MGB - 120

NDA - 116

Shining India Exit Poll 

Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll for Seat Level Picture - Wisdom of Crowd Survey

Gaya District

In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 4

In 2020, it could end NDA-5, RJD+5

Banka District

In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 1

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 1

Patna District

It was 8-5 in favor of NDA in 2015, Patna District is likely to end 9-5 in favor of RJD+ in 2020

Nalanda District

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 1

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4

Paschim Champaran

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 2

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 6, RJD+ to win 3

Muzaffarpur

In 2015, NDA won 3, RJD+ won 6

In 2020, NDA 6, RJD+4

Samastipur

In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 4

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 5, RJD+ to win 5, RJD+ could end up with more

Assuming RJD bias in our poll, NDA should end 4 seats and RJD+ with 6 seats

Araria

In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 2

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 1, RJD+ to win 5

Madhubani District

In 2015, it was RJD+ 5, NDA 4 and Others 1

In 2010, it looks like 5-5 for both the alliances but quite volatile

Siwan District

In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 3

In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4

Vaishali District

2015, NDA - 3, RJD+ 4

2020, NDA- 1, RJD+ 6

Darbhanga District

2015, NDA - 6, RJD+ 4

2020, NDA- 4, RJD+ 6

12 Districts

2015, NDA - 60, RJD+ 41

2020, NDA- 47, RJD+ 58

Extrapolating to all Seats, 

2015, NDA - 125, RJD+ 110

2020, NDA- 91 (Original was 105), RJD+ 144 (Updated after other exit polls were released, original was 120)

Shashi Singh Phase 1 Update

@Morewithshashi

NDA- 27 ± 04

UPA- 43 ± 04

LJP- 02 ± 01

BSP- 01 ± 01

IND- 01 ± 01

Shashi Singh Phase 2 Update

NDA- 34 Confirmed, 22 Close

UPA- 27 Confirmed, 26 Close seats

LJP - 4

IND- 5

Shashi Singh Phase 3 Update

NDA- 22 Confirmed, 32 Close

UPA- 19 Confirmed, 37 Close seats

LJP: 3

Others: 2

Phase 1+2+3

NDA - 83 Confirmed + 55(Close Contest)

UPA- 89 Confirmed + 63 (Close Contest)

LJP: 9

Others: 8

Upasana Singh - BJP Seat Predictions Only

She Predicts BJP will win 55 to 65 seats in Bihar, may be more if some close seats go in their favour. Here is her seat by seat analysis

Analysis of Bias in Exit Polls carried out in the last one year

We have taken exit polls of assembly elections in the last 12 months and bias towards NDA/BJP

Axis has a negative bias towards BJP of -6.5%. What this means is, BJP/NDA scores 6.5% more than what Axis Predicts. On the other extreme, Ipsos over predicts BJP/NDA seat forecast by 121%. Both Jan ki Baat and CVoter also have delivered forecasts that favour the BJP but not in line with results. 

Let us now look at the track record of Exit Poll companies in the last few elections in Bihar

Here is a rating of Exit Polling Companies  in the last two assembly elections and Lok Sabh elections (2010, 2014, 2015, 2019) in Bihar

Bihar Exit Polls 2020: Summary for last 4 elections

2010 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Elections Exit Polls

In the 2010 election, the results were as follows

NDA: 206 seats

RJD+: 25 Seats

CSDS was closest to the mark with 193 seats for NDA. 

1. IBN Week CSDS : 193 seats for NDA

Star Nielsen: 148 for NDA

Sadhana CVoter: 147 for NDA

2014 Bihar Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls

In the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, the results were as follows

NDA: 31

JD(U): 2

RJD+: 7

Some exit polls were accurate

1. India TV Cvoter: 29 seats for NDA

TimesNow ORG: 28 seats for NDA

ABP Nielsen: 28 seats for NDA

NDTV Hansa: 22 seats for NDA

IBN CSDS: 24 seats for NDA

Headlines Today Cicero: 20 seats for NDA 

The most accurate ocurate exit pollster was CVoter and Today's Chanakya (We are unable to trace their Bihar election and our estimate of accuracy for Today's Chankya in 2014 is based purely on memory)

2015 Vidhan Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls

In the 2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar, the results were as follows

MGB Alliance: 178 Seats

NDA Alliance: 58 Seats

Only one Exit poll got it right

1. IBN Axis: 176 seats for MGB

ABP Nielsen: 130 seats for MGB

India Today Cicero: 117 seats for MGB

NDTV Hansa: 110 seats for MGB

India TV TimesNow CVoter: 122 seats for MGB

News 24: Today's Chanakya: 83 seats for MGB

2019 Lok Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the results were as follows

NDA: 39 Seats

UPA: 1 Seat

Exit Polls were quite accurate

1. India Today Axis MyIndia: 39 seats for NDA

TimesNow VMR: 30 seats for NDA

ABP Nielsen: 35 seats for NDA

Republic TV CVoter: 33 seats for NDA

Republic TV Jan Ki Baat: 30 seats for NDA

Newsnation:  30 seats for NDA

Chintamani 5 Dots: 32 seats for NDA

In sum, Exit Polls have been more accurate predicting Lok Sabha elections than Assembly elections. However, even in Exit Polls, atleast one pollster has come close to the result. Axis so far has the best track record across all pollsters.