We know that the Assam election will be closer than 2016. A short summary of our previous analysis.
In an opinion poll carried out in March, NDA was just about scraping through to form the Government in Assam (about 60 seats versus Congress at 48 Seats). The biggest challenge for the NDA is the very ordinary performance of the economy in Assam apart from the chaos induced by CAA and NRC. Our very detailed analysis explained why BJP was in trouble in Assam.
The Latest Google Trends data seems to suggest that the problem is getting worse. Here is the gap between BJP and Congress over the last 5 years
July 2015 (5 years back) : BJP 19, Congress 10
March 2016 (Month before the election) : BJP 100, Congress 39
March 2020: BJP 20, Congress 12
July 2020 (This month): BJP 21, Congress 16
Overall, there appears to be a clear downward trend since 2015 when the gap was about 9 points and it is 5 points this month. Don't forget, Assam is one of those States ruled by BJP that it did not perform very well in the 2019 election. The vote share Gap vs Congress which was 13% in 2014 had reduced to 11% in 2019. In the 2016 assembly election, the gap was 8%.
While it is not easy to translate Google Trends share to vote share, a reduction in gap from 9 to 5 could probably flip 10-15 seats from NDA to Congress. This is not enough for the Congress to win as the gap was a massive 60 seats in 2016. The election will really heat up only if Google Trends gap reduces to 2-3 points.
One must remember that NDA is sitting on 47 Safe Seats. Here the margin is a massive 15%. All they need to do is defend 14 of the rest 39 seats. At the moment it looks like they will be able to do that comfortably.
However, if the trends deteriorate further, Assam too could become an interesting election in 2021.