Gold Predictions until end of 2021 | Gold Rate Prediction: International Spot Gold is down and trading at $ 1880 on Thursday or Rs 49221 per 10 gms. In India, MCX Gold price closed at Rs 50495 on Wednesday, nearly Rs 500 down from Tuesday. . The Dollar Index was up to 93.4 even as there are no updates on the stimulus while COVID cases have started to increase again. This is the highest level for the Dollar in the last 10 days. With US stocks too plunging last evening, it is likely that Trump will move faster for a stimulus.
COVID Update: One reason Dollar performed well was the news that French President Macron has announced a lockdown in France again. Germany too followed with its own announcement of a partial lockdown.
In the meanwhile, the Indian Government is likely to announce a fresh stimulus to give a boost to the economy even as COVID cases begin to reduce across almost all the states. It is too early to talk about the impact on the currency and hence Gold but it is important to keep track of this.
Gold Mining stocks (see data below) had a horrible day on wednesday falling much more than the broader index. Most Gold mining stocks are trading 15-20% lower than August peaks. On the other hand, Indian Gold stocks held steady inspite of a broader fall in the stock market even as reports come in that South Indian Gold consumption is back to normal levels.
Overall Indicator: Gold Market will continue to be negative with the dollar likely to gain in strength owing to surging COVID cases. Central Bank commentary will increase in importance should Dollar strengthen further. The next level to be tested will be $ 1850 (Rs 48403) and then $ 1800 (Rs 47095) where the support is high (according to FXEmpire). In Indian Markets, Gold is likely to see support at Rs 50400 (Ajay Kedia on Moneycontrol)
Latest Gold Price Chart from MCX
Gold is up 0.7% in the Indian MCX over the last one month
Gold Mining Stocks
Gold Mining Stocks had a horrible day on Wednesday
Newmont Corporation was down 4.9% on Wednesday, this stock is down 17% from its August peak
Anglogold Ashanti was down 2.3% on Wednesday, 39% lower than its peak in July.
Kinross Gold was down 10.6% on Wednesday, this is 21% lower than the peak in August
Gold Price Prediction India: 10 Gold Price Predictions
Gold Prices are reported on a per 10 gm basis for 24 carat Gold.
1. Goldman Sachs is predicting about Rs 61000 by end of 2021
2. "The momentum suggests Rs 60,000-62,000 by Diwali," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director, Commtrendz.
3. Kishore Narne, associate director, Motilal Oswal Financial Services predicted a price of Rs 65000 per 10 gm by end of the current year
4. The Economy Forecast Agency. forecasts Rs 66600 by end of 2021
5. Bank of America : $ 3000 per ounce by End of 2021, Rs 79138 per 10gm at current exchange rate
6. ABN Amro Bank: $ 2000 per ounce by End of 2021, Rs 52755 per 10gm at current exchange rate
7. Citibank has upped its Gold predictions to Rs 58847 per 10gm by end of 2021 at current exchange rate (September 23rd)
8. Wallet Investor has predicted a price of Rs 56167 in one year (6th October)
9. Navneet Damani also of Motilal Oswal "One can look to buy gold on dips towards Rs.47500-48000 with upside targets towards Rs.65000-67000 over the next 18 months". Motilal Oswal has a forecast of Rs 67000 in the next 12 months (October 27th, 2020)
10. Anuj Gupta, Deputy Vice President — Commodities & Currency research at Angel Broking, target of Rs 55,000 per 10 gm in 3 months (Comment dated 17th september 2020). Sriram Iyer of Reliance securities believes that Gold could touch Rs 51050 to 51300 in the short term
Gold Prediction India: Other Observations
Chris Vermuelen predicts Gold at $ 2300 by year end (Rs 59900 per 10 gms)
The maker of a new cryptocurrency backed by Gold (Digix) says Gold is likely to remain between $ 2000 and $ 2100 in the next few months (Between Rs 51734 and Rs 54320). ANZ Bank has put out forecasts as follows (assuming current INR USD exchange rate) - Rs 56907 by December 2020, Rs 59494 by March 2021 and Rs 49147 by end of 2021.
Goldman Sachs says that the odds of dollar weakness has increased due to a higher probability of a Biden win and delays in the coronavirus vaccine. This could be positive for the Gold
Moneycontrol has published an analysis suggesting that with Dhanteras and Diwali up ahead, one should invest in gold. However, another Indian platform forecasts gold at Rs 48821 by Diwali.
That said, the World Gold Council feels Indian retail demand has been weak and higher demand appears to be coming in from western countries. The latest World Gold Council analysis shows volume of Gold purchase through ETFs has fallen in the last 2 months (Globally)
Gold Price Prediction 2021: What are the positive and negative factors influencing the precious metal at the moment?
1. Dollar Strength: Stronger dollar usually means weaker Gold. Economic Reports are due in first week of October
2. COVID vaccine announcement: Gold is likely to face pressure once the Vaccine is announced. A Vaccine is likely to be announced in late October or early November
3. US Political Uncertainty is Positive for Gold. US Elections are due in early November
4. Indian economic recovery. Faster the recovery, less positive for Gold
5. Central bank actions on Interest rates, lower interest rate outlook usually leads to an increase in Gold prices
Read this thorough analysis about the relationship between Fed balance sheet and Gold Prices
Watch this space for more updates on Gold Price Forecast