Here is a list of Chief Ministers of Indian States not Ruled by BJP/NDA. There are 28 States in India and of them just 11 are not ruled by the Bharatiya Janata Party or the NDA in general. Here is the list of Chief Ministers from those States
These 11 States together constitute about 49% of the Country's population. The most unique difference between these States and those ruled by the BJP/NDA is the % of speakers who speak Hindi. Amongst BJP ruled states approximately 64% of the population are native hindi speakers, it is about 20% in states not ruled by the BJP/NDA. These 11 States make up for 55% of the GDP versus 40% for those ruled by the BJP/NDA. 5 of these Chief Ministers are in the the Top 10 of Best Chief Ministers list.
While large scale shifts/ defections cannot be ruled out in any state, here is the ranking of states that are most vulnerable to shift to the BJP/NDA over the next 3 years.
7 out of these 11 States are Vulnerable to shift to the BJP/NDA in the next 3 years with atleast 3 states in the next 12 months. There are just 4 states that are unlikely to move to the BJP/ NDA in the next 3 years.
Amongst the most vulnerable states, Maharashtra is on the top given the constant rumour mongering of NCP allying with the BJP as well as the constant arguments between the MVA alliance partners. In Bengal, Mamata may be in power now but the general trends are not in its favour. Opinion Polls show a general trend against Mamata making her extremely vulnerable in 2021. Rajasthan is difficult to predict though the vulnerability is quite visible. The complex politics of BJP in Rajasthan reduce the probability of a BJP Government there. However, the possibility of Sachin Pilot splitting and forming his own party and then probably joining NDA is quite possible. In AP and Telangana, elections are due in 2024 next and it is difficult to estimate the NDA's strength in both these States by then. In Kerala, it is clear that while NDA may make progress in 2021, it is highly unlikely to form a Government there.
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