Tragic Delhi Fire: Get Ready for Politics now

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Tragic Delhi Fire: Get Ready for Politics now

13 Dec 2019
Tragic Delhi Fire: Get Ready for Politics now
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The Tragic Delhi Fire follows the usual script 

- Poor Management by those responsible for the Building

- Poor Law and rules enforcement

- Poorly prepared Citizens

- Fire Department struggling with access issues

This is the summary of every fire in India and after initial noise, most get on with their lives. Afterall, Fire is not something that you are likely to ever see in your life. I saw it and i know how devastating it can be. Most people don't think it will happen to them but reality is different.

It is too early to talk about politics but it ha started. With Delhi Assembly Election 2020 just two months away, this was inevitable.

One of the earliet salvos was fired by the BJP IT Cell's Co-Convenor Ms Apurva Singh

 

 

Gautam Gambhir (who is trailing Kejriwal significantly in our prediction game) on the other hand took a more statesmanly approach to the accident

 

The MCD (Controlled by BJP) in Delhi in the meanwhile is still figuring if they gave a license.

We are still ascertaining if the factory is licensed or not: North MCD Commissioner Varsha Joshi

While this issue may not impact the election results (with 2 months to go), all the 3 parties are like to lob attacks on each other to win every single SWING vote on offer. The vote shares in the last two elections were as follows

2015 Assembly

AAP: 54.5%

BJP: 32.3%

Congress: 9.7%

Total Votes: 8.9 million

2019 Lok Sabha

AAP: 18.2%

BJP: 56.9%

Congress: 22.6%

Total Votes: 8.6 million

The minimum vote for BJP is about 3 million

AAP+Congress is about  3.7 million

That leaves about 2.3 million voters who are swing voters and are likely to be impacted by such events. The risk for AAP is not just from the BJP but also from the Congress which is likely to gain some votes from AAP this time. On the other hand, should this be attributed to MCD failure, it will reinforce the point that Kejriwal may not be brilliant but he is better than what the BJP can give in Delhi. This can be prove to be the death knell for the BJP's chance in the 2020 election.

The next one week is likely to see a lot of drama. 

Our Delhi Election Predictions continue to be active with AAP looking all set to return to power. You too can predict the results by clicking here

 

 

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