Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Will DMK dethrone AIADMK?

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Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Will DMK dethrone AIADMK?

03 Apr 2021
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Will DMK dethrone AIADMK?
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Tamil Nadu election Exit Poll 2021 will be published once polling for all the phases in all the states ends that is on 29th April. Watch this space for latest updates on Tamil Nadu election.

Tamil Nadu Election 2021 is scheduled on 6th April. This time there is a direct fight between two alliances, DMK+ and AIADMK+. The Tamil Nadu Election Opnion Polls have clearly indicated win for DMK+ however, in recent trends, AIADMK+ has been making certain improvement. The Tamil Nadu election exit poll 2021 will be published on 29th or 30th April, that is once polling for all the states ends.

Here is the summary of Tamil Nadu election Exit poll of last election:

Agency AIADMK DMK+ BJP
India Today-Axis 89–101 124–140 0–3
News Nation 95–99 120-118 0–1
C Voter 139 78 0
NewsX 90 140 0
ABP Nielsen 95 132 1
NDTV Poll of Polls 103 120 0
Chanakya 90 140 0
Spick News 142 87 0
Thanthi TV 111 99 1

  

Read Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 analysis

The 2021 Tamil Nadu Election is not far away. At the moment, things are looking tough for the ruling party AIADMK as the party gets ready to fight its first assembly election in recent times without former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa.

Elections 2019 was an unmitigated disaster for the AIADMK in alliance with Narendra Modi's BJP. The party won just 1 lok sabha seat in the state out of the 39 lok sabha seats in the state. The 2019 lok sabha elections was the first election after the death of former CM Jayalalithaa

To be able to better understand how many number of seats AIADMK and DMK will win in the 2021 Tamil Nadu election, it is good to know the Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 in great detail. We will cover two main topics

1. Election Result Analysis

2. Exit Poll/ Post-Poll Analysis on Issues and Segment/Caste level performance

Key Points to Note

- Since 1977, DMK has won more than 35% of the vote share in the tamil nadu legislative assembly elections just once, AIADMK has won five times

- After 1996, AIADMK has increased its vote share in every single election. DMK on the other hand has not crossed 35% in a single election since 1996

- The last time DMK won a majority in the state legislative assembly on its own was in 1996, AIADMK on the other hand has won a majority on its own 3 times out of the last 4 elections

Tamil Nadu Election Result

- In 2016, AIADMK fought the election with 6 small parties which were given 7 seats to contest. DMK on the other hand had 7 partners with Congress party contesting in 41 seats while DMK itself contested in 176 seats

Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 Analysis

Overall Result

Total Number of assembly constituencies: 234*

AIADMK+: 134 Seats (41.8% Vote Share)

DMK+: 98 Seats (39.3% Share)

*Elections was held only 232 seats in May 2016

Seats won by either party with 10%+ Margin (Strong)

AIADMK: 42 Seats

DMK+: 32 Seats

Seats won by either party with <= 5%+ Margin (Weak)

AIADMK: 49 Seats

DMK+: 40 Seats

Seats won by each party across various regions of the state

North Region, 10 Districts - DMK+: 50 , AIADMK : 50

Eastern Region, 3 Districts - DMK+: 8 , AIADMK: 9

Central Region, 4 Districts - DMK+: 7, AIADMK : 12

Western Region, 6 Districts - DMK+: 7, AIADMK: 31

Southern Region, 9 Districts - DMK+: 26, AIADMK: 32

The DMK's weakness is mostly in Western TN (Kongu belt) and Central region where it won just 14 seats versus AIADMK which won 43 SeatsThis will be a key battle ground in 2021. There are 13 seats here which the AIADMK has won with less than 5% of the margin and 23 seats with less than 7.5% of the margin. The political party that manages this region the best will win the election in 2021.

 Districts where AIADMK won more than 70%+ Seats won in 2016

Coimbatore: AIADMK: 14 out of 16 seats, Vote Share: 45.8%, Lead: 9.5%

Erode: AIADMK: 9 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 44.4%, Lead: 4.7%

Madurai: AIADMK: 8 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 46.5%, Lead: 8.2%

Nagapattinam: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 7%

Namakkal: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 47.3%, Lead: 7.8%

Salem: AIADMK: 10 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 8.2%

Thiruvallur: AIADMK: 7 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 41.9%, Lead: 3.5%

Districts where DMK won more than 70%+ Seats won in 2016

Kancheepuram: DMK+: 9 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 42.4%, Lead: 4.5%

Kanyakumari: DMK+: 6 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.1%, Lead: 18.2%

Seats won by each party across Urban and Semi-Urban regions

AIADMK: 85 Seats

DMK: 57 Seats

AIADMK has done quite well in Semi-Urban parts of TN while DMK was evens in Urban and Rural Tamil Nadu

Seats won by each party across Rural Seats

AIADMK: 49 Seats

DMK: 41 Seats

Seats won by each party across SC Reserved Seats

AIADMK: 30 Seats

DMK+: 14 Seats

9 out of the 30 seats won by AIADMK were won by less than 5% margin. Most of these are outside DMK's weak areas suggesting strong focus in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Election.

Seats won by Female Candidates of each party

AIADMK, Candidates: 30, Total Votes won: 2.3 million, 15% of AIADMK Votes, Win rate: 53%

DMK+, Candidates: 22, Total Votes won: 1.5 million, 8.9% of DMK+ Votes, Win rate: 24%

This is a big factor for AIADMK's success in many elections. With the demise of Jaya, one needs to see how this plays out in the 2021 Tamil Nadu Election. 

Full Official Election Commission of India Results Including Downloadable files

Exit Poll and Opinion Poll Analysis

We sourced exit polling data from CSDS and has been corrected after the final results were out. The results are a fair indication of the situation on the ground in 2016.

Satisfaction with CM Jayalalithaa - 54% - Average Performance

Vote Share by Segments (Exit Polls)

Men: AIADMK: 36%, DMK: 43%

Women: AIADMK: 46%, DMK: 35%

Upper Castes: AIADMK: 52%, DMK: 30%

Dominant Peasant Castes: AIADMK: 44%, DMK: 42%

Vanniyar: AIADMK: 35%, DMK: 35%

BCs: AIADMK: 44%, DMK: 42%

Download Exit Poll Results here

The last assembly election was closely fought but decided in favour of AIADMK. In the absence of Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK fought the 2019 lok sabha polls in alliance with Narendra Modi but the results were a disaster. Still, AIADMK starts with a stable voting base and good resources enabling them to give a good fight in 2021.

 Read our detailed analysis of 2021 Tamil Nadu State Assembly elections here

 

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