New Zealand (NZ) Election 2020 Polls, Predictions and Odds, 17th October


New Zealand (NZ) Election 2020 Polls, Predictions and Odds, 17th October

20 Nov 2020
New Zealand (NZ) Election 2020 Polls, Predictions and Odds, 17th October

New Zealand (NZ) Election 2020 Polls, Predictions and Odds:

Chloe Swarbrick of the Green Party is ahead in the Central Auckland Seat

Labour has won 49% of the vote and 64 seats

National has 27% of the vote and 35 seats

ACT New Zealand has 8% and 10 seats

Green Party has 7.6% and 10 Seats

The New Zealand General election is being held today. 

Advance voting has doubled this year over 2017 with more than 1.7 million already having voted. That is nearly 60% of the voters in 2017.The COVID pandemic may be a big factor here as similar trends can be seen in the United States as well. 

Headline Prediction: Jacinda Ardern is likely to return to power with an alliance with the Greens

New Zealand Election 2020 Predictions and Odds/Opinion Polls: Latest Polls

The Final Poll published last night by Newshub had the following predictions

- Labour 45.8%

- National 31.1%

- ACT 7.4%

- Green Party 6.3%

- NZ First below the threshold at 3.5% surging at the fag end of the campaign

Newshub predicts Labour will be able to from a Government on its own. 

On the referendum, support for End of life choice was at 56.1%

Support for cannabis was at 38.3%

The last poll by Colmar Brunton published the day before election day

- Labour is a 46%, down 1% from last week and down 4% from peak

- National too is down 1% to 31%

- ACT NZ is 8% and so are the Greens who appear to have gained from Labour

- Ardern was 55% on leadership preference, Judith Colin was at 20%.

In a separate poll, it appears that the Cannabis referendum will end with a majority choosing No

New Zealand Election 2020 Predictions and Odds : News Buzz

The last debate yesterday went in favour of Ardern

With two days to go before voting is complete, the Greens have put out a warning to wavering voters that Labour cannot form the next Government without them

Newshub reports that Winston Peters' own staff are not confident of his party doing well this election

Judith Collins believes that the polls are wrong and National has a path to form the next Government

According to most polls, the Euthanasia referendum (End of Life Choice Act 2019) is likely to pass while the cannabis referendum is likely to fail. 

PM Ardern gave credit to Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters' struggling New Zealand First party  I do think New Zealand First have made a contribution, particularly in the regions - credit where credit's due

One in three ACT voters had previously voted the National Party. This could hurt National Party Leader Judith Collins in this election

A new Poll for Tamaki Makaurau shows Māori Party leader John Tamihere just 6% points short of Labour's Peeni Henare

The Cannabis referendum might end positively if more youth turn up to vote. The latest poll found 46% in favour and 40% against. However, most apparently don't understand the question itself

A new poll found that third of Kiwis want to rename New Zealand Aotearoa, a Maori name

The NZ Herald listed 10 electorates that are worth watching on election night. These include the much tracked Central Auckland and the very competitive Waiariki seat. 

The British Guardian newspaper listed the abandonment of the KiwiBuild Policy, Problematic ministers and an absence of a clear COVID recovery strategy as failures of the Labour Government

New documents show that the Labour Government over rode the Election Commission's advice to conduct the election in the 3rd week of November

A new analysis on the Spinoff lays out a path by which National could shock everyone and form the next Government

Some media outlets are concerned by the return to single party majority after nearly 30 years.

NZ Election 2020 Predictions and Odds/Opinion Polls

Oddschecker: Labour Party - 1/20, National Party - 8/1

Smarkets: Labour Party - 93%, National Party - 9%

Newshub-Reid research (Vote share): Labour Party - 50%, National Party - 30% 

Newshub Reid Research has superseded both these polls and is giving the Jacinda Ardern led party, a 50.1% and the Judith Collins a mere 29.6% chance of winning the election. A mammoth difference of 20.5%. And if this turns out to be the case, then the Labour Party can have a smooth run in operating the New Zealand parliament.

Another major pollster, Roy Morgan Research is giving the Labour Party an even better chance of clinching the election. They predict a 19.5% difference between the winner's Labour Party and the major opposition - the National party, giving the Labour 48% and the National party a 28.5%.

New Zealand (NZ) Election 2020 Polls, Predictions and Odds

Source : Wikipedia

ACT New Zealand has gained the most during the last two months with polls now predicting ACT with about 8% of the vote. ACT won just 0.5% of the vote in 2017. ACT's improved performance has prompted a direct attack from Jacinda Ardern at the party for making an accounting error in its national economic plan.

NZ Election 2020 Predictions and Odds : Google Trends Update (8th October)

As we come closer to election date, the gap between Ms Collins and PM Ardern on Google Search has fallen significantly. 

- On a 30 day basis, Ms Ardern leads Ms Collins 60% to 40% on Google Searches

- However over the last 24 hours, it has come down to 55% to 45% in favour of the Prime Minister.  

The gap between parties is even more interesting

- During the last 30 days, Labour made up for 37% of the search queries ahead of National and ACT

- However, during the last 7 days, Labour's share has fallen to 34% 

The negative momentum will test the current prediction that Labour will win about 47% of the vote

The Official election result and referendum results will be declared on 6th November 2020.

NZ Election 2020 Predictions and Betting - Final Verdict

The predictions and betting platforms are positive about the return of Labour's Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister once again. The National Party which was the single largest party in 2017 General Election is set to lose big as per the betting and prediction platforms. The party seems to be running out of time to make a comeback and return to power after 3 years in the Opposition

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