Assam Election Opinion Poll 2021: BJP+ 77, Congress 40, AIUDF 7 seats


Assam Election Opinion Poll 2021: BJP+ 77, Congress 40, AIUDF 7 seats

23 Jan 2021
Assam Election Opinion Poll 2021: BJP+ 77, Congress 40, AIUDF 7 seats
The recent Assam election opinion poll released by ABP-C Voters show BJP+ returning to power. As per the poll NDA may win 73-81 seats, UPA  may win 36-44 seats while AIUDF may win 5-9 seats.

Introduction: The result of 2016 Assembly election was the beginning of new era of saffron surge not just in Assam but in entire north-eastern region. BJP which contested 89 seats became the single largest party in Assam Assembly of 126 seats. BJP won 60 seats and along with its allies, Assam Gana Parishad, Bodoland Peoples’ Front, NDA won 86 seats.

It is almost five years since BJP came to power in Assam. Soon the state will be heading for the fresh election. BJP did perform extremely well in BTC election as well as TIWA Autonomous Council election. However, this time Congress and AIUDF have joined hands to fight their common enemy BJP in Assam. Therefore, the upcoming Assam election is expected to be a close fight between the two alliances. 

ABP News C Voters recently released an opinion poll for Assam election. As per the poll, BJP alliance may once again return to power. The poll shows BJP alliance winning 73-81 seats, UPA may win 36-44 seats while AIUDF may win 5-9 seats. 

The polls were relased before the alliance between Congress and AIUDF was finalized. 

Some other Assam Election Opinion Polls 2021 also show BJP alliance returning to power.

Note: The polls numbers are shared by the Political analysts who have predicted law few elections correctly. The opinion poll number of Crowdwisdom360 will be released soon.

1. As per one of the political analyst, Upasana Singh: NDA 66 UPA 60

2. As per Ashish: NDA 76 UPA 50

Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021 Latest News Updates

Chief Election Commission to visit Assam to oversee poll preparation. 

Ruling BJP in Assam targets to garner at least 1 crore votes in the 2021 assembly polls

ARSU tells BJP to Fulfill Promises to Rabhas Before Assembly Polls

After West Bengal, BJP chief JP Nadda is on a 2-day visit to Assam. On 11th January he will be addressing rally at Silchar, Assam.

Congress says that alliance with AIUDF is yet to be finalized. The two parties had contested in alliance the BTC Election recently.

The Election Commission of India have issued a notice that no official charged with lapses previously to be given Election duty.

Assam BJP state Prabhari BJ Panda said that BJP will win 100 plus seats in upcoming Assam Assembly election.

Akhil Gogoi who has formed his own political party, Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti is expected to contest election from jail after his bail was rejected by Guahati High Court.

Election Commission of India's team will be visiting Assam on 11-12 January to take the stock about the preparedness for the upcoming election.

Amit Shah gives nod to alliance in Assam. As per Times of India, NDA alliance in Assam will have AGP, Ganashakti and Rabha Joutha Sangram Samiti, UPPL and GSP.

 Assam BJP State president Ranjit Kumar Das said that on 30th December two sitting Congress MLAs may join BJP. They met Amit Shah when he was on Assam Visit few days ago.

Bill to end practice of running madrassa by state govt tabled in Assembly, both Congress and AIUDF opposed the bill.

As per the news reported by The Telegraph India, Assam Congress leader demanded for new Congress Chief in the state. Six senior Congress leaders from poll-bound Assam have written to Congress president Sonia Gandhi to change state PCC president Ripun Bora and appoint “anyone”. 

See latest opinion poll results below

Assam is divided into Upper Assam and  Lower Assam, North Assam and Hills and Barak Valley. Politically Upper Assam plays an important role in Assam Politics. Just after Lok Sabha election, BJP gave a call of “Mission 100” and Congress gave a call of “Mission 80” for 2021 Assembly election. From Koliabor to Sadiya, the Upper Assam consists of 42 Assembly seat and as per history of Assam, it is said that one who conquers Upper Assam gets to sit on the throne of Assam. In 2016, of 60 seats won by BJP, more than half came from Upper Assam and thus, BJP went ahead to rule Assam for a period of 5 years.

Assam Election 2021 Opinion Poll Predictions : Cachar District Seat Wise analysis

Crowdwisdom360 carried out a wisdom of the crowd opinion poll in Cachar district in November 2020. Here are the results of that opinion poll

Silchar which was won by BJP in 2016 is likely to be retained by BJP

Sonai which was won by BJP in 2016 with 36% of the vote is likely to switch to  AIUDF

Dholai which was won by BJP with more than 50% of the vote will be retained by BJP

Udharbond which was won by BJP with 49% of the vote is likely to shift to Congress

Lakhipur which was won by INC will shift to BJP as the Congress MLA Rajdeep Goala is likely to join the BJP

Barkhola which was won by BJP in 2016 with 36% of the vote is likely to switch to Congress

Katigorah which was won by BJP in 2016 with 44% of the vote is likely to switch to  AIUDF

Overall Summary for Cachar District

2016, BJP-6, INC-1

2021, BJP-3, INC-2, AIUDF-2

NDA had a 23 seat advantage in the assembly in 2016. That gap will reduce to 20 seats if these results hold in 2021. Further, the NDA is likely to split with the BPF which may reduce the lead further. 

In an opinion poll carried out in March, NDA was just about scraping through to form the Government in Assam (about 60 seats versus Congress at 48 Seats). The biggest challenge for the NDA is the very ordinary performance of the economy in Assam apart from the chaos induced by CAA and NRC. Our very detailed analysis explained why BJP was in trouble in Assam.

On our platform while Sonowal is not above 50, he is way ahead of his rivals. Sonowal is at 47 while Gogoi is at 17. This is in line with the opinion poll results. While NDA may land up with about 50% of the seats, congress will end up with about 48 seats which is not enough to form a Government unless it allies with Badruddin Ajmal. 

Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: How CAA and NRC may prove to be fatal for BJP?

Assam is one state which has openly voiced against NRC and CAA. Majority of Assamese are Hindus but they believe that after 1971, the indigenous people have been affected the most by the illegal migrants from Bangladesh both Muslims and Hindus. The Assamese are clear in their approach, “We don’t want anyone of them”. A recent opinion poll carried out by an independent agency suggests that around 75% of the belive that CAA and NRC will influence the upcoming 2021 Assam Election.  Therefore, for BJP to win majority it will have to contain these people. For Congress, they can take advantage of this situation and cash in some vote percent.

Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021 : Caste Equations

In Assam majority of population belongs to OBC cateory that is around 44%. Muslims forms the 2nd highest population in Assam, that is around 34%. Forward caste forms around 20% of the population and Mahadalits 20%.

Assam Assembly Election 2021 may take place in the month of April-May in 2021. BJP has performed extremely well in Lok Sabha election. Added to it in last five years BJP’s membership in Assam increased from 2.5 lakhs to 60 lakhs. However, the vote share gap between BJP and Congress which was 13% in 2014 reduced to 11% in 2019. In the 2016 assembly election, the gap was 8%. Therefore, Assam Assembly Election 2021 is completely open and it is for time to decide who will retain the power in Assam Assembly Election 2021.

Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021 Predictions : What happened in 2019 Lok Sabha election?

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, of 14 Lok Sabha seats from Assam, BJP contested on 10 constituencies while its alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad contested on 3 and Bodoland People’s Front contested on 1 Lok Sabha seat. Congress on the other hand contested in all the 14 Lok Sabha seats of Assam. Result was something that Congress might have not expected. BJP won 9 of the 10 seats that it contested while Congress was reduced to all time low of 3 seats in Assam. If we translate the 2019 Lok Sabha election result into Assembly segments BJP was ahead in 67 Assembly segments and along with its allies, NDA was ahead in 82 Assembly segments while Congress was ahead in only 26 Assembly segments.

Read : Assam Assembly Election 2021 Predictions : Congress Norrowing Gap?

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