Assam Election Result 2021: BJP+ to retain the State

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Assam Election Result 2021: BJP+ to retain the State

02 May 2021
Assam Election Result 2021: BJP+ to retain the State
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The ruling BJP+ is set to retain the state once again. The latest update shows BJP+ heading for a massive win.


The Assam Election result seems to be in line with most of the Exit polls published on 29th April. The latest update as of 12:30 PM shows BJP+ ahead on 77 seats while Congress AIUDF alliance are ahead on just 41 seats. You can track the latest updates of Assam election result here.

Here is the summary of the Assam Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election:

  BJP+ INC+ Others
Crowdwisdom360 65 57  
India Today My Axis 80 45 1
CNX Polls 79 45 2
News 24 Chanakya 70 56  

Assam Election Opinion Poll 2021: Here is the average of all the Assam Election Opinion Polls:


  When? NDA UPA Others
India TV - Jan Ki Baat March 73 53 0
Ankit Sharma-University Poll March 72 52 2
Times Now CVoter March 69 56 1
Times Democracy March 61 65 0
Average March 24th 69 57 2
ABP C Voter February 72 47 7

Google Search Update, 5th April

2016: BJP: 78%, Congress: 22%

2019: BJP: 64%, Congress: 36%

2021: BJP: 72%, Congress: 28%

In Phase 1, BJP underperformed versus 2019 Lok Sabha election

In Phase 2, Congress underperformed versus 2019 Lok Sabha election

In Phase 3, Congress underperformed versus 2019 Lok Sabha election

Assam Election Exit Poll 2021: Latest News

Times Now: Night curfew clamped in Assam till May 1 to check spread of COVID-19

Hindustan Times: After 6.4 magnitude jolt, 6 earthquakes hit Assam's Sonitpur today

NorthEast Now: Fierce encounter between police and ULFA-I in Bongaigaon, top leader of outfit Dwipen Saud killed

SentinelAssam: Assam Jatiya Parishad urged government to control surging prices of food items

PM Modi's ratings are at 64, highest amongst poll states indicating a strong position for BJP

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Introduction: The result of 2016 Assembly election was the beginning of new era of saffron surge not just in Assam but in entire north-eastern region. BJP which contested 89 seats became the single largest party in Assam Assembly of 126 seats. BJP won 60 seats and along with its allies, Assam Gana Parishad, Bodoland Peoples’ Front, NDA won 86 seats.

However, opinion polls show BJP just about scraping through in Assam. A combined opposition and CAA dissatisfaction have put BJP on the backfoot.

In the meanwhile, Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal is sitting on a 6 month low in terms of ratings.


 

Predict the 2021 Assam Election and win Amazon Vouchers, click picture below


Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021: Latest Polls


1. Times Now-C Voters in its latest survey released on 24th of March gave an edge to NDA in upcoming Assam Assembly election. As per the poll BJP alliance may win 65-73 seats while Congress alliance may win 52-60 seats. Others may bag 0-4 seats.

2. Chintamani-Elections.in released their opinion poll for upcoming Assam election on 23rd March. As per the poll BJP alliance may win 80-90 seats in upcoming Assam election while Congress alliance may win 40-50 seats and others may win around 5-10 seats.

3. India TV Jan Ki Baat released their latest Assam Election opinion poll on 23rd March. As per the poll, BJP is set to return to power once again in Assam. The poll gives BJP alliance 68-78 seats and Congress alliance may win around 48-58 seats in upcoming Assam Assembly election. 

4. The latest of all the Assam Election Opinion poll is released by Ankit Sharma on 18th March. As per the poll, BJP alliance may win 72 seats in upcoming Assam election with Congress+ winning 52 seats. Others may win just 2 seats.

5. In the latest Assam Election opinion poll by ABP News C Voter, NDA may win between 64 to 72 seats out of total 126 seats, UPA may get 52 to 60 seats, while others may get five to zero seats.The polls show NDA getting 45% vote share while UPA may get 42.2% vote share. 

6. As per the Economic Times, the BJP's ideological parent RSS feels that BJP could win 80 seats in upcoming Assam Election along with its allies. As per the ET, the estimation was made after the feedback taken from the ground level survey.

Assam is divided into Upper Assam and  Lower Assam, North Assam and Hills and Barak Valley. Politically Upper Assam plays an important role in Assam Politics. Just after Lok Sabha election, BJP gave a call of “Mission 100” and Congress gave a call of “Mission 80” for 2021 Assembly election. From Koliabor to Sadiya, the Upper Assam consists of 42 Assembly seat and as per history of Assam, it is said that one who conquers Upper Assam gets to sit on the throne of Assam. In 2016, of 60 seats won by BJP, more than half came from Upper Assam and thus, BJP went ahead to rule Assam for a period of 5 years

7. Assam Election 2021 Opinion Poll Predictions : Cachar District Seat Wise analysis

Crowdwisdom360 carried out a wisdom of the crowd opinion poll in Cachar district in November 2020. Here are the results of that opinion poll

Silchar which was won by BJP in 2016 is likely to be retained by BJP

Sonai which was won by BJP in 2016 with 36% of the vote is likely to switch to  AIUDF

Dholai which was won by BJP with more than 50% of the vote will be retained by BJP

Udharbond which was won by BJP with 49% of the vote is likely to shift to Congress

Lakhipur which was won by INC will shift to BJP as the Congress MLA Rajdeep Goala is likely to join the BJP

Barkhola which was won by BJP in 2016 with 36% of the vote is likely to switch to Congress

Katigorah which was won by BJP in 2016 with 44% of the vote is likely to switch to  AIUDF

Overall Summary for Cachar District

2016, BJP-6, INC-1

2021, BJP-3, INC-2, AIUDF-2

NDA had a 23 seat advantage in the assembly in 2016. That gap will reduce to 20 seats if these results hold in 2021. Further, the NDA is likely to split with the BPF which may reduce the lead further. 

Assam Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2021 : Caste Equations

In Assam majority of population belongs to OBC cateory that is around 44%. Muslims forms the 2nd highest population in Assam, that is around 34%. Forward caste forms around 20% of the population and Mahadalits 20%.

Assam Assembly Election 2021 may take place in the month of April-May in 2021. BJP has performed extremely well in Lok Sabha election. Added to it in last five years BJP’s membership in Assam increased from 2.5 lakhs to 60 lakhs. However, the vote share gap between BJP and Congress which was 13% in 2014 reduced to 11% in 2019. In the 2016 assembly election, the gap was 8%. Therefore, Assam Assembly Election 2021 is completely open and it is for time to decide who will retain the power in Assam Assembly Election 2021.

Assam Assembly Election Exit Poll 2021 Predictions : What happened in 2019 Lok Sabha election?

In 2019 Lok Sabha election, of 14 Lok Sabha seats from Assam, BJP contested on 10 constituencies while its alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad contested on 3 and Bodoland People’s Front contested on 1 Lok Sabha seat. Congress on the other hand contested in all the 14 Lok Sabha seats of Assam. Result was something that Congress might have not expected. BJP won 9 of the 10 seats that it contested while Congress was reduced to all time low of 3 seats in Assam. If we translate the 2019 Lok Sabha election result into Assembly segments BJP was ahead in 67 Assembly segments and along with its allies, NDA was ahead in 82 Assembly segments while Congress was ahead in only 26 Assembly segments.

Read : Assam Assembly Election 2021 Predictions : Congress Norrowing Gap?

Assam Assembly Election will be held in three phases starting from March 27th which will cover 47 seats. 2nd Phase will be held on 1st April covering 39 seats and final phase will be held on 6th April for 40 seats. Results will be declared on 2nd May.

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