2020 Election Odds, Predictions, Early Vote & Polls: Biden Next President?

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2020 Election Odds, Predictions, Early Vote & Polls: Biden Next President?

29 Oct 2020
2020 Election Odds, Predictions, Early Vote & Polls: Biden Next President?
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2020 Election Odds, Predictions and Polls October 28th: Before we get into the odds predictions and polls, a quick glance into the issues that were discussed on October 27th.

  1. The latest poll by IBD TIPP gives Joe Biden a 4.6% lead nationally. This poll was close to the result both in 2012 and 2016. TIPP President Raghavav Mayur believes that Biden needs a 3.1% lead nationally to win the electoral college vote. 

  2. According to the media, former president Barack Obama has been on the campaign trail in support of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, and in his speeches, he emphasized that Trump's incompetent response to the deadly pandemic should be a major reason to vote him out. 

  3. The media highlights that newly confirmed Supreme Court justice Amy Coney Barrett is a disciple of the late Justice Antonin Scalia, therefore is an “originalist” who tries to approach the law utilizing literal interpretation of the original US Constitution which was written over 230 years ago.

  4. The media claims that the majority of the public believes that Amy Coney Barrett is being installed on the Court in a rushed manner that will undermine its integrity. 

  5. According to the media, after hearing about Joe Biden’s involvement with Chinese dealings, many early voters want to change their votes, and google searches for “change my vote” have spiked due to this. 

2020 Election Odds, Predictions and Polls: Early Vote Statistics

According to electproject, voters have cast 75,224,029 ballots in the reporting states. 

In Texas, total early vote turnout is 91% of the 2016 election. As far as the key battleground states are concerned, Florida is at 72%, Pennsylvania is at 32%, Michigan at 42%, Wisconsin at 52%, Arizona at 74% and North Carolina at 76%.

Democrats have seen the most ballots that have been returned for their party in regard to mail in voting; 13,721,585 ballots have been returned, while Republicans have had 6,867,352. The frequency of distribution of Democrat ballots is 51.1, while the number for Republicans is 25.6. Requested mail-in ballots have also seen higher Democrat numbers at 24,897,085 with a return rate of 55.1, while for Republicans it is 14,726,278 with a return rate of 46.6.

 

2020 Election Odds, Predictions and Polls: Election Odds

A Joe Biden Victory is being predicted in 6 out of 6 of the platforms. Most of the markets were closed for betting today.  

Today, the prediction platforms have revealed shifts to the odds of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. 

The most popular prediction market, predictit, reports that Joe Biden is leading President Trump 63 to 42. Biden has declined in odds while Trump has remained unchanged. 

According to the prediction site bookies.com, Joe Biden is given the lead. He is placed at -200, while Trump is at 170. Neither candidate has seen changes.

Prediction platform oddschecker.com gives Joe Biden odds of 11/21 and Donald Trump odds of 15/8. Trump has not seen changes, while Biden has declined. 

smarkets.com expects to have a Joe Biden Presidency, as they give him a 66.2% chance of securing a victory they give Donald Trump a 34.3% chance of winning the election. Biden has declined, while Trump has improved.

Popular betting platform Bet365 has placed the odds in favor of Joe Biden winning the election. Joe Biden is given odds of 0.50, while Donald Trump is placed at 1.70. Biden has decreased while Trump has increased. 

Betting site Betway’s odds reveal that they expect a Joe Biden presidency. Donald Trump has been placed at 2.40, while Joe Biden is at 1.50. Trump has improved, while Biden has not seen changes.

According to Predictit, Donald Trump saw a sharp increase in some of his battleground state odds. In Florida, the Republican Party victory is placed at 60 cents, having declined by one cent, while Democrats are at 42 cents, having decreased by one cent.

In Arizona, the Democratic Party win is placed at 54 cents, having not seen changes, while Republicans are at 48 cents, having experienced an increase of one cent.

In North Carolina, the Democratic Party victory is placed at 56 cents, having not seen changes, while Republicans are at 47 cents, having increased by one cent.

In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Party win is placed at 59 cents, having not seen changes, while Republicans are at 44 cents, also having decreased by one cent. 

In Michigan, the Democratic Party victory is placed at 67 cents, having not seen changes, while Republicans are at 35 cents, also having not seen changes.

In Wisconsin, the Democratic Party victory is placed at 64 cents, having not seen changes, while Republicans are at 38 cents, having increased by two cents.

United States Presidential Election 2020: National Battleground polls

According to a realclearpolitics aggregate of battleground polls, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 3.5

Biden leads Trump in all of the battleground states except Florida, where Trump holds a narrow lead.

In Wisconsin, Biden leads by 5.5, in Florida, Trump leads by 0.4, Biden leads Pennsylvania by 3.8, Michigan by 9.0, Arizona by 2.4, and North Carolina by 0.7. Overall, Joe Biden is placed at 49.2, while Donald Trump is at 45.7.

If we look at the three battleground states to which Hillary Clinton lost the election narrowly to Donald Trump in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight depicts a Joe Biden victory in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

In Wisconsin, Biden’s popular vote is at 53%, while Trump is at 44%.

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads at 52%, while Trump is at 45%.

Lastly, in Michigan, Biden leads at 53%, while Trump is at 43%.

Today, the betting platforms revealed fluctuations in the odds of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden suffered many declines, while Trump saw improvements. The national polls have seen a Joe Biden victory, but Trump was able to take the lead in Florida. Joe Biden continues to maintain a decent lead over Donald Trump, though this lead seems to be fluctuating and shifting daily. 

Anusha Mantri

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