2020 Election Odds, Predictions and Polls November 3rd: Since the 2020 United States Presidential election a hours away, odds and predictions have not seen many shifts today. I am the author of the Election Odds and Predictions articles over the last two months, and have first hand experienced some of the tensions, emotions, and discussions of the political environment in the United States. I am a college student in Texas, and was able to vote for the first time in this year’s election.
The political parties in the country have been placed on a spectrum; from Solid Republican, Moderate Republican (right leaning), Independent, to Moderate Democrat (left leaning) and Solid Democrat, and conservative to liberal. Despite the diversity of the spectrum, the media this year has illustrated the U.S. political system to be two polarizing ideologies- Republican or Democrat, conservative or liberal- that we often forget that many people place themselves more moderately, in the middle of that spectrum. This has caused it to become very difficult to maintain a civil conversation in regard to certain political issues on the media platforms. It is critical in this country to hold an intellectual conversation about political beliefs with our peers. I have conversed with my peers who have had right leaning beliefs, and others who related more to the left. It is surprisingly easy for us to find a a middleground in a lot of key issues, such as immigration, COVID-19, abortion, environment, economics, social movements etc. With these conversations, I learned that social tensions, the economy, and COVID-19, as well as abortion have been extremely important issues for the younger voters in this year’s election. Though Democrats and Republicans seem to have differing beliefs on the media, it is very possible to find a compromise with the people in our community. Media platforms always depict politics to be controversial and strict, when in reality, we learn that it is greatly exaggerated and misunderstood in the country.
In regard to the media, through the election process this year, I realized that it is important to filter unbiased news sites to understand certain issues. I researched both Donald Trump and Joe Biden’s policies on their respective websites, to understand both ideologies better and limit biases of the media. Both candidates have worked tirelessly for their election campaigns, and appreciation is shown through their many supporters. In my community, my peers and I understand that neither candidate is necessarily perfect, as they cannot possibly satisfy everyone’s beliefs in the nation, but we know that it is essential to at least know both Trump and Biden’s ideologies before voting or forming a political opinion; this brings me to another observation for this year’s election. Many people stay loyal to a single political party for their entire lives, without truly taking the time to process the policies of the presidential candidates every four years. I have noticed that older voters tend to do this, while younger voters, like me and my peers, are more prone to be Independent and learn about both sides of the political spectrum.
Texas has been a Republican state for the past three decades, but large populations of my community have been discussing the possibility of the state becoming Democrat. Though this is seemingly very unlikely, it has encouraged people in my community- of both Democrat and Republican ideologies- to vote. This is one of the reasons why Texas has had one of the largest numbers of early votes. When I exercised my right to vote, I had to wait in a line for two hours before entering the voting booth. Regardless of political party, voter turnout is always positive in the U.S., and has encouraged excitement for voting.
While voter motivation has increased, so has fear of the possible outcomes of the election. Social tensions have been at all time highs in the United States- with the Black Lives Matter Movement, Police Brutality, LGBTQ+ movements, and minority rights, as well as the rise of White Supremacy groups. Polarizing social movements have caused violence and riots across the country, and whether the winner of the election is Joe Biden or Donald Trump, we expect protests to occur after the result is announced. Some social groups have even threatened violence if the opposing candidate wins the election, therefore communities live in fear of what will occur once the president is elected. Nonetheless, Americans look forward to watching the election tomorrow after months of campaign build up.
Battleground polls continue to show a narrowed Joe Biden lead, with Donald Trump gaining a lead in North Carolina. According to a realclearpolitics poll, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 2.6.
In Wisconsin, Biden leads by 6.6, Arizona by 0.5, Pennsylvania by 2.5, Michigan by 4.8, Florida by 1.7, and Trump leads North Carolina by 0.5. Overall, Joe Biden is placed at 48.8, while Donald Trump is at 46.2.
If we look at the three battleground states to which Hillary Clinton lost the election narrowly to Donald Trump in 2016, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, FiveThirtyEight depicts a Joe Biden victory in Michigan, and Wisconsin, and a Trump victory in Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, Biden’s popular vote is at 50%, while Trump is at 42%.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads at 49%, while Biden is at 48%.
Lastly, in Michigan, Biden leads at 50%, while Trump is at 43%.
With the election just a day away, the nation awaits to see whether Donald Trump will continue to lead the country in his second term, or if Joe Biden will become the next president of the United States.