Assam Election Exit Poll 2021 : Two phases of Assam election 2021 has been completed and 3rd and final phase will be held on 6th April. The result for the election will be declared on 2nd May 2021.
The Assam election exit poll will be updated once voting for all the states that went for election is completed.
Assam Election Exit Poll 2021 : How INC and AIUDF coalition will impact the election?
In order to fight the BJP, three-time Assam Chief Minister and Congress leader Tarun Gogoi, has suggested that his party has decided to strike up a grand alliance with the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) for the 2021 Assembly elections. In. a statement Tarun Gogoi, said “It’s not only the AIUDF, we are open to all like-minded parties. People of the state are dissatisfied over the state of the economy, people losing jobs and uncertainty all around,” The alliance is not officially confirmed but it is highly likely that these parties will fight the BJP together. If that happens to be the case, let’s see how it affect the electorate results of the state election.
Assam is a state with the third-highest Muslim population in the country with 34.6% Muslims. One of the reasons for the BJP win in 2016, was the division amongst the Muslim vote between the opposition and it is famously assumed that had the Muslim vote been consolidated and given to one alliance, the outcome could be different. This could be seen in places like Barhampur where the Congress party and AIUDF came second and third respectively.
In Assam Assembly election 2016, if voteshare is taken in account, Congress got more than what BJP got in the state in 2016 Assam election. The Congress vote share was a massive 31% and was better than the 29.4% enjoyed by the BJP. AIUDF at the same time received 12.9%, so if we keep cases like this in mind than the alliance will consolidate the votes – resulting in more seats.
However, what should not be ignored is that BJP contested on only 89 Assembly seats while Congress contested on 122 Assembly. Now if we add up the 2016 Assembly election voteshares of BJP alliance (BJP+AGP+BPF) , the BJP alliance got total 41.5% voteshare while Congress and AIUDF together got 44% voteshare, Congress got 31% voteshare and AIUDF, which contested on 74 seats got 13% voteshare.
Assam Election Exit Poll 2021 : Why Congress, AIUDF Alliance is worth worrying for BJP?
All India United Democratic Front headed by Ajmal Badruddin enjoys goodwill amongst the Muslims electorate and if they join hands with the Congress then, they have a strong case in securing the trust of almost 1/3 of the state’s population. It must be noted that Assam is a state with the third-highest Muslim population in the country with 34.6%. In addition to that the swing voters, or the first time voters who have yet to decide on their votes, will have a strong opposition alternative that is not bickering amongst each other. This can prove to be crucial in defeating the BJP.
In addition to that The Congress, AIUDF, and Left Front are the only parties in Assam that have remained a strong critic of the ruling dispensation and never changed their stance. There has been anger against BJP government due to Citizenship Amendment Act. The new alliance if sealed may take the advantage of it and may contribute to dampen the chances of BJP in state.
Now is it Advantage Congress in Assam after its alliance with AIUDF?
Assam has 61% of Hindu population. Though BJP has been able to score well among them but Congress to secure a good chunk of Hindu votes in Assam. Now any pre-poll alliance with AIUDF in Assam will definitely hurt the Hindu voters of Congress. AIUDF is highly unpopular among the Hindu voters and once the alliance is done, then there are higher chances that Hindu voters of Congress will be alienated and may find easy to decide whom to vote for in upcoming Assam Assembly election. Therefore, the INC-AIUDF alliance may be able to bring Muslim voters together but it may also bring the Hindu voters together and vote in large number in favor of BJP in Assam.
The Assam election is about a year away. The number of the seats that the Congress and AIUDF currently have in the state is 38, while the BJP has more than 80 seats with almost the same vote share as that of the Congress. An alliance in 2016, would have made a difference of at least 15 seats, had they decided to fight together. However, it will be too early to tell that the new alliance will hurt or will be advantage for BJP in Assam.