Kerala has been known to change its government after every five years. However, this time the trend seems to be completely reversing. As per the latest updates from the official Election Commission of India website, the ruling LDF is set to retain the state while Congress led UDF is losing massively in the state.
The Kerala election exit polls also predicted the same. Here is what the polls predict:
|India Today -Axis My India||104-120||20-26||0-4|
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Here is the average of all the Kerala Election Opinion Polls 2021:
|When?||LDF||UDF||NDA||2016 Forecast (Agency)|
|Mathrubhumi C Voter||March||79||60||1||LDF Error of (-2)|
|Times Now CVoter||March||81||58||1||LDF Error of (-2)|
|C Fore||February||75||61||4||LDF Error of (-12)|
Google Search, Election Day Trend
2016: CPM: 64%, Congress: 36%
2019: CPM: 41%, Congress: 59%
2021: CPM: 56%, Congress: 44%
Kerala likely to be a close election (as far as Google Search is concerned)
Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices
UDF Greater than 51 Seats, Price: 92, High Probability
UDF Greater than 71 Seats, Price: 35, Low to Medium Probability
Most likely to win seat by a big margin
Pinarayi Vijayan: Price: 68, Medium to High Probability
Oommen Chandy: Price: 56, Medium Probability
E Sreedharan: Price: 37, Low to Medium Probability
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Latest News from Kerala
LiveMint:Kerala records highest single day surge of over 35 000 covid cases
Times Now: Congress candidate from Kerala's Nilambur VV Prakash dies of heart attack
Mathrubhumi: BJP will win 12 seats, declares core committee
CPM claims that is LDF alliance may win 80-85 seats in recently concluded Kerala Assembly election.
The Kerala election is a direct fight between LDF and Congress led UDF. In recent survey Kerala CM Pinjarayi Vijayan saw his popularity rapidly declinin. As per the Best Chief Minister in India list, a month before the state goes for voting, his rank has tumbled 4 position and from 5th position in last month, he is now at 9th position. His approval rating also saw a 3% decline.
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: What were the Opinion Poll projection in 2016?
Kerala has a total of 140 Assembly seats. In Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by CPI(M) won the election, defeating the incumbent United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the INC. LDF won 91 seats, UDF 47 seats while NDA won just 1 seat.
This is what the opinion polls had predicted for the Kerala election 2016 which took place on 16 May and result was declared on 19 May 2019.
|Mar-16||India TV C-Voter||49||89||2|
|Apr-16||Mathrbhumi News – Axis My India||55–62||75–82||3–5|
|May-16||People TV – CES Survey||51–59||81–89||0–3|
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Accuracy of Exit Polls in Last election
|Times Now-C Voter||74–82||54–62||0–8|
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: 10 Closely Contested seats in 2016 Assembly election
|Seat||District||Winning Party||Margin of Victory|
|Wadakkanchery||Thrissur||Indian National Congress||0% (Won by 43 Votes)|
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Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: Latest Kerala Election Opinion Polls
The ruling LDF though it is facing anti incumbency of 5 years may return to power once again as per the latest Kerala Election opinion polls.
Chintamani and Elections.in released their opinion poll for upcoming Kerala Assembly election. As per the poll Left dominated, LDF is set to retain the state despite 5-years of anti-incumbency. As per the poll, LDF may win 70-80 seats in 140 seats of Kerala while Congress lead UDF may win around 55-65 seats. BJP may win 1-5 seats.
2. Times Now C Voter predicts return of LDF in Kerala. As per the poll, LDF may win 77-85 seats while UDF may win 54-62 seats. BJP led NDA may just win 0-1 seat.
3. Opinion poll released by Times Democracy show a close fight between ruling LDF and opposition UDF. As per the poll, LDF may get a simple majority of 71 seats, UDF may win 67 seats and others may win 2 seats.
4. Opinion poll released by Asianet News and C fore research organization, LDF may win 72-78 seats, UDF may win 59-65 seats and NDA led by BJP may win 3-7 seats. As per the poll, LDF may get 41% vote share while UDF may secure 37% vote share. NDA may bag around 20% vote share in upcoming Kerala Assembly election.
5. 24 News also released its pre-poll survey. The survey finds a close fight between two alliances in Kerala. As pe the 24 News LDF will get between 68 to 78 seats, UDF will get 62 to 72 seats. NDA may get around one to two seats. More than 11,000 people participated in the 24 News survey. As per the this survey, LDF is predicted to get a vote share of 42.38 per cent, while UDF would get 40.72 per cent and NDA 16.9 per cent.