Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: LDF keeps nose ahead in two districts with few losses. The 2021 Kerala assembly polls are some 8-9 months away. Crowdwisdom360 in its usual wisdom of the crowd approach (Small samples) carried out an opinion poll in Palakkad district of Kerala. Today we present the seat predictions for that district.
Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021
The recent opinion poll show neck to neck fight between the two alliances, LDF and UDF. As per the political analyst Abhimanyu Singh, the Left Democratic Alliance may win around 73-78 seats, the UDF alliance may win around 62-67 seats while NDA may fail to open their account in the upcoming Kerala Assembly election.
Kerala Legislative Assembly Election 2021
— Abhimanyu Singh (@ReallyAbhimanyu) January 12, 2021
Projection For 2021
1 - LDF Alliance - ( Seats : 73 - 78 ) ( Vote Share : 41 % - 42 % )
2 - UDF Alliance - ( Seats : 62 - 67 ) ( Vote Share : 40 % - 41 % )
3 - NDA Alliance - ( Seats : 00 - 01 ) ( Vote Share : 13 % - 14 % )
Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: Palakkad District
Thrithala
2016: UDF-> 2021: Too close to call
Pattambi
2016: LDF->2021: Too close to call
Shornur
2016: LDF->2021: LDF
Ottapalam
2016: LDF->2021: LDF
Kongad
2016: LDF->2021: LDF
Mannarkkad
2016: UDF-> 2021: UDF
Malampuzha
2016: LDF -> 2021: LDF
Palakkad
2016: UDF-> 2021: UDF
Tharoor
2016: LDF->2021: LDF
Chittur
2016: LDF->2021: Too close to call
Nenmara
2016: LDF->2021: LDF
Alathur
2016: LDF-> 2021: LDF
Palakkad Summary
2016, UDF: 3, LDF: 9
2021, UDF: 2, LDF:7
Three Districts Summary
2016: UDF: 7, LDF: 25
2021, UDF:9, LDF: 19
Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: Kannur District
Payyannur
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Kalliasseri
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Taliparamba
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Irikkur
2016: UDF, 2021: UDF
Azhikode
2016: UDF, 2021: UDF
Kannur
2016: LDF, 2021: UDF (Switching)
Dharmadam
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Thalassery
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Kuthuparamba
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF, closely fought
Mattannur
2016: LDF, 2021: LDF
Peravoor
2016: UDF, 2021: UDF
Kannur Summary
2016: UDF: 3, LDF: 8
2021, UDF:4, LDF: 7
Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: UDF gaining in Alappuzha District
Left Democratic Front LDF retains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election
Left Democratic Front LDF retains with some fight vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election
United Democratic Front UDF gains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election
AM Ariff the sitting MLA lost the Aroor Assembly segment to Shanimol Usman in the Lok Sabha election. While Mr. Ariff managed to win the Lok Sabha seat, Shanimol Usman went on to beat Manu C. Pulickal of the CPI (M) by a margin of 2,079 votes in a by poll. The Congress led united democratic front is likely to retain the seat. However, compared to the election, this is a switch from LDF to UDF
2 Kuttanad: This seat was won by NCP's Thomas Chandy (who supported the LDF) until his death last year. The by elections were due early this year but postponed on account of COVID. The Congress led UDF won this segment during the Lok Sabha election 2019. This seat is likely to switch from LDF to UDF
United Democratic Front UDF retains vs 2016 Kerala Assembly Election
1 Haripad: One of the senior most congress leaders Ramesh Chennithala has won this seat both times in 2011 and 2016. The party also won this segment in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Ramesh Chennithala is also a potential CM candidate. The Congress party will retain this seat very comfortably
Too Close to Call
1 Kayamkulam: Kayamkulam is a good indicator of the levels of swing in a Kerala election. In 2011, the LDF won the seat by less than 1% of the vote. In 2016, it won the seat by nearly 7% of the vote. It managed to win the segment during the Lok Sabha election in 2019. However, at the moment, our predictors are unable to determine who will win this election.
So who will win the Kerala Election 2021?
The data is clear
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is in trouble but UDF isn't gaining enough to win 2021.
In sum, while LDF is losing momentum and UDF is gaining , UDF gains are not enough to form the next Government. Should elections be held now, LDF will just scrape through and return to power again. One should recall that even in 2011 UDF won the election quite narrowly. The LDF base is wider and steadier.