Kerala Opinion Polls and Exit Polls 2021: Google Indicates Close election

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Kerala Opinion Polls and Exit Polls 2021: Google Indicates Close election

19 Apr 2021
Kerala Opinion Polls and Exit Polls 2021: Google Indicates Close election
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Google Search indicates a close election while Kerala Election Opinion polls show LDF winning 79 seats while UDF is winning 59 seats

Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Here is the average of all the Kerala Election Opinion Polls 2021:


  When? LDF UDF NDA 2016 Forecast (Agency)
Chintamani-Election.in March 75 60 3  
Mathrubhumi C Voter March 79 60 1 LDF Error of (-2)
Times Now CVoter March 81 58 1 LDF Error of (-2)
Manorama VMR March 80 57 3  
Average March 26th 79 59 2  
C Fore February 75 61 4 LDF Error of (-12)
24 News February 73 66 1  
Times Democracy February 71 67 2  
24 News February 73 66 1  

Google Search, Election Day Trend

2016: CPM: 64%, Congress: 36%

2019: CPM: 41%, Congress: 59%

2021: CPM: 56%, Congress: 44%

Kerala likely to be a close election (as far as Google Search is concerned)

Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices

UDF Greater than 51 Seats, Price: 92, High Probability

UDF Greater than 71 Seats, Price: 35, Low to Medium Probability

Most likely to win seat by a big margin

Pinarayi Vijayan: Price: 68, Medium to High Probability

Oommen Chandy: Price: 56, Medium Probability

E Sreedharan: Price: 37, Low to Medium Probability


Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Latest Political News from Poll Bound Kerala

Unoffical polls give LDF a narrow win in Kerala

BJP vote share will determine whether UDF will win Kerala

CPM claims that is LDF alliance may win 80-85 seats in recently concluded Kerala Assembly election.

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The Kerala election is a direct fight between LDF and Congress led UDF. In recent survey Kerala CM Pinjarayi Vijayan saw his popularity rapidly declinin. As per the Best Chief Minister in India list, a month before the state goes for voting, his rank has tumbled 4 position and from 5th position in last month, he is now at 9th position. His approval rating also saw a 3% decline. 


Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: What were the Opinion Poll projection in 2016?

Kerala has a total of 140 Assembly seats.  In Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by CPI(M) won the election, defeating the incumbent United Democratic Front (UDF), led by the INC. LDF won 91 seats, UDF 47 seats while NDA won just 1 seat.

This is what the opinion polls had predicted for the Kerala election 2016 which took place on 16 May and result was declared on 19 May 2019.

When Who UDF LDF NDA
         
Mar-16 India TV C-Voter 49 89 2
Apr-16 Mathrbhumi News – Axis My India 55–62 75–82 3–5
May-16 Mars agency 70–75 63–67 0
May-16 People TV – CES Survey 51–59 81–89 0–3

 

Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: Accuracy of Exit Polls in Last election

WHO? LDF UDF Others
Times Now-C Voter 74–82 54–62 0–8
India Today-Axis 88–101 38–48 1–7
News Nation 67–71 68–72 0–2
Today's Chanakya 75±9 57±9 8±5

Kerala Election Opinion Poll 2021: 10 Closely Contested seats in 2016 Assembly election

Seat District Winning Party Margin of Victory
Wadakkanchery Thrissur Indian National Congress 0% (Won by 43 Votes)
Manjeswar Kasorgod IUML 0.1%
Peerumade Idukki CPI 0.2%
Perinthalmanna Malappuram IUML 0.4%
Koduvally Kozhikode Independent 0.4%
Kattakkada Thiruvananthapuram CPI(M) 0.6%
Kuttiadi Kozhikode IUML 0.7%
Mananthavady Wayanad CPI(M) 0.9%
Kochi  Ernakulam CPI(M) 0.9%
Udumbanchola Iduuki CPI(M) 0.9%

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Kerala Opinion Poll 2021: Latest Kerala Election Opinion Polls


The ruling LDF though it is facing anti incumbency of 5 years may return to power once again as per the latest Kerala Election opinion polls.

1. Chintamani-Elections.in

Chintamani and Elections.in released their opinion poll for upcoming Kerala Assembly election. As per the poll Left dominated, LDF is set to retain the state despite 5-years of anti-incumbency. As per the poll, LDF may win 70-80 seats in 140 seats of Kerala while Congress lead UDF may win around 55-65 seats. BJP may win 1-5 seats.

2. Times Now C Voter predicts return of LDF in Kerala. As per the poll, LDF may win 77-85 seats while UDF may win 54-62 seats. BJP led NDA may just win 0-1 seat.

3. Opinion poll released by Times Democracy show a close fight between ruling LDF and opposition UDF. As per the poll, LDF may get a simple majority of 71 seats, UDF may win 67 seats and others may win 2 seats.

4. Opinion poll released by Asianet News and C fore research organization, LDF may win 72-78 seats, UDF may win 59-65 seats and NDA led by BJP may win 3-7 seats. As per the poll, LDF may get 41% vote share while UDF may secure 37% vote share. NDA may bag around 20% vote share in upcoming Kerala Assembly election. 

5. 24 News also released its pre-poll survey. The survey finds a close fight between two alliances in Kerala. As pe the 24 News LDF will get between 68 to 78 seats, UDF will get 62 to 72 seats. NDA may get around one to two seats. More than 11,000 people participated in the 24 News survey. As per the this survey, LDF is predicted to get a vote share of 42.38 per cent, while UDF would get 40.72 per cent and NDA 16.9 per cent. 

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