Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP makes progress in Bengal

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Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP makes progress in Bengal

18 Oct 2020
Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP makes progress in Bengal
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Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP Trinamool Congress 3-3 in Dakshin Dinajpur

We completed our second opinion poll in Bengal this season. Using our usual wisdom of the crowd approach (small sample), we have attempted to determine the likely winners in the election in 2021. The participants are not the average voter but people who are a little passionate about politics and are usually located in that region, we use analytics to reduce bias. Here are seat by seat predictions for Dakshin Dinajpur District

Kushmandi

2016: Left, 2021: TMC

Kumarganj

2016: TMC, 2021: TMC

Balurghat

2016: Left, 2021: BJP

Tapan

2016: TMC, 2021: BJP

Gangarampur

2016: INC, 2021: BJP

Harirampur

2016: Left, 2021: TMC

Dakshin Dinajpur Summary

2016, Left: 4, TMC: 2

2021, BJP: 3, TMC: 3

Dakshin Dinajpur plus Birbhum

2016, BJP: 0, TMC: 11

2021, BJP: 11, TMC: 6

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 Prediction: BJP likely to dominate Birbhum District

The Bengal opinion poll in Birbhum was carried out between 26th and 27th of August 2020. Here is the seat by seat prediction

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, BJP makes big gains in North Bengal

Versus 2016, TMC is seeing a loss of 6 seats out of 9 seats it won. In Bengal, TMC won 211 seats in the 2016 assembly election.

Versus 2019 Lok Sabha, TMC is seeing a loss of 3 segments out of 6 it won. TMC won 164 assembly segments in 2019

With these kinds of losses and correcting for BJP losses due to absence of Modi on the ticket, TMC could still end up with less than 100 seats in the assembly election. That said, please wait for future updates as we analyse a few other districts across the state.

Is Mamata headed for defeat?

The answer is YES for the moment. But with a major caveat, this is just one district. 

1. Unlike other state elections, BJP does not appear to be underperforming significantly versus Lok Sabha elections

2. Dissatisfaction with Mamata/TMC appears to have increased. In the July survey by Ormax, Mamata enjoyed approval of just 46% of Bengal's voters, down from 52% in June

3. An approval rating of 46% could translate to about 37-40% the vote, enough to move a lot of seats to the BJP over 2019.

Overall, Mamata and TMC are in trouble. Perhaps this explains the restructuring and turmoil within the party

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, BJP makes big gains in North Bengal

How this plays out over the year, time will tell. We hope to update more districts in the near future.

BJP makes huge gains in N. Bengal

Uttar Banga Sambad Bengal Opinion Poll 2021, Source: Uttar Banga Sambad appears to have completed an Opinion Poll in North Bengal for the 2021 assembly elections. Overall, it is clear BJP is making huge strides in bengal sustaining and even expanding over the 2019 lok sabha polls. There is strong anti-incumbency against the Mamata Government as can be seen in the latest Best Chief Minister in India surveys

Koch Bihar District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Mekliganj, Mathabhanga, Tufanganj, Cooch Behar Uttar

TMC retains

Sitai, Dinhata

Too Close

Cooch Behar Dakshin, Sitalkuchi, Natabari

Koch Bihar Summary

2016, TMC-8, BJP-0

2021, TMC-2, BJP-4

 

Read about why Mamata Banerjee could lose the 2021 West bengal assembly election

 

Uttar Dinajpur District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Karandighi, Hemtabad

TMC retains

Chopra, Goalpokhar

Too Close

Islampur, Kaliaganj, Raiganj, Itahar

Uttar Dinajpur Summary

2016, TMC-4, BJP-0

2021, TMC-2, BJP-2

 

Read about why Mamata will win 2021 election

 

Jalpaiguri (and Alipurduar) District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Kumargram, Kalchini, Alipurduar, Madarihat, Dhupguri, Dabgram-Fulbari, Nagrakata, Mal

TMC retains

Falakata, Maynaguri, Rajganj

Jalpaiguri Summary

2016, TMC-10, BJP-1

2021, TMC-3, BJP-8

 

Darjeeling Plains

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Matigara-Naxalbari, Phansidewa

2016, TMC-0, BJP-0

2021, TMC-0, BJP-2

Malda District

Shift from TMC/Left to BJP

Habibpur, Gazole, Manikchak, Malda, English Bazaar

2016, TMC-0, BJP-1

2021, TMC-0, BJP-6

Total Seats Covered by Uttar Banga Sambad- 51 Seats

BJP-23, TMC-10, Left Front/INC-9, Too Close: 9

Overall, BJP is making huge gains in North Bengal assembly polls leaving Trinamool and the Left front behind. While 9 seats are being considered as too close, past history shows that such seats usually go to the winner. If that happens, BJP is likely to end up with 30 out of the 51 seats.

In the 2019 lok Sabha elections all the Lok Sabha seats in this district. Overall BJP won 18 out of the 42 lok sabha seats in the state. While the 2019 result could be attributed to Narendra Modi, the opinion poll results show a much serious anti-incumbency in the state. In our opinion poll in Birbhum which is just adjoining North Bengal, Trinamool was losing 6 out of 9 seats it held in 2016 (see below). Not only that, it was losing even compared to the 2019 election

The Bengal election 2021 is going to challenge both Mamata Banerjee and Prashant Kishor as the BJP machine appears ready to steamroll Mamata. A landslide is not far away

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