Bengal Election Opinion Poll 2021: Average of All Polls, TMC 151, BJP 121

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Bengal Election Opinion Poll 2021: Average of All Polls, TMC 151, BJP 121

20 Jan 2021
Bengal Election Opinion Poll 2021: Average of All Polls, TMC 151, BJP 121
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Crowdwisdom360
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The Average of all polls is TMC: 151, BJP: 121. ABP News C-Voter gives TMC 154-162 seats. BJP may win around 98-108. Crowdwisdom360 opinion poll gives BJP 140 seats while TMC 134 seats for upcoming assembly election.
For Crowdwisdom360 poll sample has TMC bias which we may have corrected to a large extent but not fully.

Methodology for Crowdwidom360 Opinion Poll: Wisdom of the crowd method (small samples). This survey is different from traditional surveys because we do not ask respondents who they are likely to vote. Instead, respondents are chosen for their understanding of the political situation and can be anyone from the crowd - it is hence called the wisdom of the crowd. A little analytics is used to remove bias. We predicted 70% of the seats accurately in Bihar with 90% of the rest ending with a margin of just 1000 votes. We update these numbers twice a week

Battle of Bengal

The West Bengal Election is scheduled in May 2021. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which owes some of its origins to Bengal has never been in power in Bengal and is therefore one of the biggest prizes for the BJP. A strong BJP centrally and a fast growing worker base on the ground are all helping BJP mount a massive challenge against Mamata Banerjee. 

Amit Shah who is not the BJP President anymore is personally driving this election campaign on the ground.

The Crowdwisdom360 surveys are small sample surveys carried out regularly in each districts to estimate the result at the seat level for the assembly polls. In Bihar, our seat level accuracy was about 70%

Our survey prediction for the upcoming Bengal Assembly election is in favor of BJP. As per of latest survey BJP may win 140 seats while TMC may win 134 seats. Congress+Left alliance may win 13 seats.

The recent Bengal election opinion poll conducted by Lokpoll show majority for TMC in 295 seats Bengal Assembly. As per the polls, TMC may win 157 seats that is 9 more seats than the majority mark.

BJP on the hand may win 107 seats. In last election BJP had won only 3 seats. Left front and Congress alliance on the other hand may win 23 seats, 31 seats less of what it had won in 2016 Bengal election.

Another opinion poll released by C-Voters on 18th January states a win for TMC. As per them TMC as of now may win 154-162 seats while BJP may win around 98-106 seats. Congress+Left alliance may win 26-34 seats. `

The opinion poll released by Times Democracy indicate a close fight between TMC and BJP. As per the poll TMC may win around 149-161 seats while BJP may win 126-136 seats. The Left+Congress alliance may win 8-11 seats. 

West Bengal Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2021: Reasons why BJP has caught up with TMC

There are 5 reasons why the BJP has caught up with TMC is

- Perceived Poor Governance of Mamata Banerjee: Amphan, COVID, employment for example

- Perceived Minority Appeasement

- Large scale defection of TMC cadre and members (eg: Mukul Roy, Suvendu Adhikary)

- Positive image of PM Modi's pet schemes and nationalist plank

- Almost complete decimation of Left front and Congress party

West Bengal Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2021: Latest Election News

In a “peace rally” were South Kolkata MP Mala Roy, state ministers Shobhandeb Chattopadhyay and Arup Roy and district TMC chief Debashish Kumar attended, controversial slogan "Goli Maro" was heard.

CEC Sunil Arora led Election Commission team to begin two-day visit from 20th January, 2021.

Miffed TMC MP Satabdi Roy named West Bengal unit vice-president

WB BJP wants PM Modi, Nadda, Shah and Yogi Adityanath to campaign more frequently ahead of assembly elections

TMC Leaders Get COVID Vaccine Shot Ahead Of Healthcare Workers In Bengal, BJP Cries Foul

Before Bengal heads for election, BJP is looking forward to break TMC in oreder to win Bengal.

Adhir Ranjan Choudhary proposes merger of TMC in Congress if they wish to win upcoming Bengal election.

Amit Shah Holds meeting with Bengal BJP leaders in Delhi.

BJP MP from Bengal’s Bongaon, Shantanu Thakur has asked Amit Shah to clarify Centre's stand on implementation of Citizenship Amendment Act. It must be remembered that Thakur won the Bongaon seat riding on the wave of BJP’s citizenship promise to the Matua community.

TMC youth leader, Dharmendra Singh shot dead in Howrah. Mobs ransacks bus and shops in the area.

Bengal BJP Chief Dilip Ghosh in an indirect message asked Sourav Ganguly to join BJP. He said that successful people like Sourav Ganguly should join BJP.

TMC suffers one more blow in East Mednipur district. Ramkrishna Das made an announcement that he will leave TMC and join BJP.

The West Bengal Assembly election this year will have  28,000 more polling booths as per the Chief Election Commissioner of India, Sunil Arora.

Ahead of West Bengal Assembly election, former cricketer and BCCI chief Sourav Ganguly met the Bengal governor Jagdeep Dhankar. His meeting with Dhankar set off rumours of him joining BJP before election.

BJP appoints new district observers, co-observers ahead of Bengal Assembly election.different from what Naveen Patnaik executed in Odisha before the 2019 election. Should Mamata succeed in executing this scheme well, she has an increased chance of returning to power. So far the scheme is claimed to have reached 10 million people as per CM Mamata

West Bengal Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2021: Mamata Banerjee's struggles

Mamata on the other hand has not been unable to push through a single positive message. When we asked voters why someone should vote for Mamata, voters were unable to articulate a good reason. This lack of simple and credible messaging can turn off many voters who will decide during the last few days of the election. This is perhaps the biggest challenge for Mamata going forward. 

The other big issue is that unlike 2016, Mamata's own performance ratings are ordinary. Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee is currently rated at 44% in an Ormax survey completed in the end of November. A score below 50% is risky though Nitish had much lower scores and still managed to get re-elected on account caste combinations

The Mamata Banerjee led Government recently launched a new scheme -Duare Sarkar that is focussed on ensuring delivery of all Government schemes to voters. 


Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 : District Level Predictions


Hooghly District


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Jangipara, Tarakeswar, Khanakul

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Dhanekhali, Pursurah, Goghat


Nadia


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Karimpur, Tehatta, Palashipara, Kaliganj, Nakashipara, Chapra

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Krishnanagar Uttar, Nabadwip, Krishnanagar Dakshin

 


Burdwan


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Bardhaman Dakshin, Raina, Monteswar, Bardhaman Uttar, Bhatar, Purbasthali Dakshin, Ketugram, Mangalkot, Ausgram, Galsi

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Jamalpur, Kalna, Purbasthali Uttar, Katwa, Pandabeswar, Durgapur Purba, Durgapur Paschim, Raniganj, Asansol Dakshin, Asansol Uttar


Maldah


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Malatipur

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Habibpur, Gazole, Manickchak, Maldaha, Englishbazaar, Baishnabnagar

Assembly Seats that Left-INC are likely to win

Chanchal, Harishchandrapur, Sujapur


Murshidabad


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Samserganj, Suti, Jangipur, Raghunathganj, Murshidabad, Khargram, Rejinagar, Hariharpara, Nowda, Bharatpur

Assembly Seats that Left-INC is likely to win

Farakka, Lalgola, Bhagwangola, Raninagar, Nabagram, Baharampur, Beldanga, Kandi


South 24 Parganas (Ongoing) 


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Bhangore, Kasba, Maheshtala, Budge Budge, Metiabruz 

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Sonarpur South, Behala East, Behala West


Birbhum


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Murarai, Nalhati, Hansan, Bolpur (BJP was ahead 3 months ago), Nanoor (BJP was ahead 3 months ago), Labpur (was too close to call 3 months ago)

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Rampurhat, ,Suri, Sainthia, Mayureshwar, Dubrajpur


Purba Medinipur


Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Tamluk, Panskura Purba, Moyna, Haldia, Nandigram, Chandipur, Khejuri, Kanthi Dakshin

Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Panskura Paschim, Nandakumar, Mahisadal, Patashpur, Bhagabanpur, Ramnagar, Egra

Too Close to Call

Kanthi Uthar


North 24 Parganas


Assembly Constituencies that TMC is likely to win

Baduria, Swarupnagar, Deganga, Haroa, Minakhan, Basirhat North, Sandeshkhali, Madhyamgram, Dum Dum North, Khardaha, Panihati,Amdanga, Barasat, Naihati, Kamarhati, Barangar, Bagdah, Ashoknagar

Assembly Constituencies that BJP is likely to win

Bongaon Uttar, Bongaon South, Basirhat South, Rajarhat Gopalpur, Bidhannagar, Rajarhat New Town, Dum Dum, Bijpur, Bhatpara, Jagatdal, Barrackpore, Gaighata, Habra, Hingalganj

Too Close to Call

Noapara


Kolkata District


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Entally, Ballygunge, Rashbehari, Kolkata Port

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Jorasanko, Maniktala, Shyampukur, Chowringhee


Dakshin Dinajpur


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Kushmandi, Kumarganj, Harirampur

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Balurghat, Tapan, Gangarampur


 

 
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