Bengal Election Result 2021: TMC heading for a Massive Win

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Bengal Election Result 2021: TMC heading for a Massive Win

02 May 2021
Bengal Election Result 2021: TMC heading for a Massive Win
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Crowdwisdom360
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With counting for Bengal Assembly election in progress, the ruling All India Trinamool Congress is heading for a massive win as per latest Bengal Election result


The Bengal election 2021 result does not seem to be encouraging for BJP, while ruling TMC is heading for a massive win as of now. As per the official election commission website, as of 12:30 PM, TMC is leading on 202 seats while BJP is leading on just 77 seats. Congress on the other hand is leading on just one seat.

Most of the exit polls for Bengal election have gone wrong. Here is the summary of the Bengal Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election:

  BJP TMC Left+Congress
Crowdwisdom360 149 129  
Ankit Sharma- University Poll  160 118 14
ABP C Voters 115 158 18
Republic Bangla 143 133 16
Goa Chronicle Protect Core 167 95 10
Jan Ki Baat 173 112 6
India Today- Axis 147 143 1
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Who will win Bengal Assembly Election 2021?

3 out of the 6 Opinion Polls in March have predicted a win for BJP. 2 have predicted a win for Trinamool Congress. One has predicted a close contest with TMC ahead. Overall BJP has the edge at the moment.


 

 

 

TMC

BJP

Left INC

2016 Error
India TV- Peoples Pulse March 95 183 16 NA
ABP Network- CNX Polls March 141 135 16 NA
India TV- Jan Ki Baat March 127 155 12 NA

Priyobandhu (Estimated

March

82

185

24

NA

TimesNow CVoter

March

160

112

22

-51
Shining India March 168 89 35 NA

Average

 

129

143

21

 
Crowdwisdom360 February 134 136 19 NA

ABP C Voter

March

158

106

27

-51

Ankit Sharma- University Poll

February

120

161

13

NA

NK Digital

February

192

69

30

NA

Times Democracy

February

151

131

12

NA

 

Bengal Election Exit Poll: 7th Phase Google Search

On Day of Voting for 7th Phase 26th April 
BJP: 55%, TMC: 26%, Gap: 29%

Same Seats 2019
BJP: 71%, TMC: 14%, Gap: 57%

So far this election
BJP: 59%, TMC: 20%

2019
BJP: 64%, TMC: 17%

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Latest News for 8th Phase of Bengal Election

Money Control: Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked people to vote following the COVID protocol.

News18: The state of West Bengal recorded 16.04 percent voter turnout till 9am today for the eight and final phase of the assembly elections.

NDTV: Mithun Chakraborty Votes In Last Phase Today

Exchange4Media: I-PAC’s Facebook ad spend highest this year

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Estimation by Prashant Kishore, Mamata Banerjee's Election Strategist

BJP: 40%
Left-INC: 10-15%
Others (last 2 elections average): 12%
Therefore,TMC: 33% to 38%

Note: TMC can only win if 'Others' reduces to 6%


West Bengal Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2021: Background

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) which owes some of its origins to Bengal has never been in power in Bengal and is therefore one of the biggest prizes for the BJP. A strong BJP centrally and a fast growing worker base on the ground are all helping BJP mount a massive challenge against Mamata Banerjee. The current TMC government is looking forward to return to power once again after 10 years of rule. Currently both the parties are in neck to neck fight. 

Amit Shah who is not the BJP President anymore is personally driving this election campaign on the ground.

Mamata who had been struggling until December is finally making progress

Duare Sarkar that is focussed on ensuring delivery of all Government schemes to voters may have had some impact

- ABP News- C Voter has been running a weekly tracker Mamata Banerjee has 54% preference rate as Chief Minister while BJP West Bengal Chief, All the BJP candidates together added upto 35%. This has raised concerns on whether BJP should announce a CM candidate. Our Editorial Advisor Amitabh Tiwari in his analysis argued that there is no such need

In most states, the BJP put forth Modi as the poster boy of its campaign, literally making it a Modi versus the incumbent CM contest. Modi was positioned as a harbinger of change and development who exploited anti-incumbency against the existing chief minister to the hilt."

- The latest Ormax Media survey shows that for the first time Mamata Banerjee broke into the Top 5 list of Best Chief Ministers in India. Her popularity rating are at 6-months high.

- However, BJP's biggest challenge may be that as compared to Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Prime Minister Naredra Modi's popularity has been trending lower in Bengal since November 2020. He is currently on par with Mamata

There are 5 reasons why the BJP has caught up with the TMC 

- Perceived Poor Governance of Mamata Banerjee: Amphan, COVID, employment for example

- Perceived Minority Appeasement

- Large scale defection of TMC cadre and members (eg: Mukul Roy, Suvendu Adhikary)

- Positive image of PM Modi's pet schemes and nationalist plank

- Almost complete decimation of Left front and Congress party


Track Facebook spends by various parties in this election


West Bengal Assembly Elections Opinion Poll 2021: Opinion Polls Summary


1. India TV- Peoples' Pulse

India TV Peoples Pulse released their Bengal election opinion poll on 24th of March. As per the poll, BJP is heading for a massive win in Bengal. The poll gives BJP 183 seats while TMC may be restricted under 100 seats that is only 95 seats. Congress Left alliance may bag 16 seats in upcoming Assembly election. 

2. ABP Network CNX Polls

ABP Network CNX Polls show BJP giving a tough fight to TMC. As per the poll TMC may win 136-146 seats while BJP may win 130-140 seats. Left Congress alliance may win 14-18 seats.

3. India TV- Jan Ki Baat

India TV-Jan Ki Baat released their Bengal election opinion poll on 23rd March. The poll shows BJP capturing the throne of Bengal. As  per the poll BJP may win 150-162 seats, TMC may win 118-134 seats and Left Congress alliance may win only 10-14 seats.

4.ABP C Voters

The latest Bengal Assembly Election opinion poll by ABP News on 15th of March show TMC still leading in the state. As per the poll TMC may win 150-166 seats, BJP may win 98-114 seats while Left Congress alliance may win 23-31 seats.

As per their poll, about 43 % people said they will vote for TMC and 42 % believe that TMC will continue to rule in the state. In terms of preference of Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee is way ahead. The polls show:

Mamata Banerjee (TMC): 52.2
Dilip Ghosh (BJP): 26.9
Mukul Roy (BJP): 6.6

Suvendu Adhikari: 2.4%

5. Bengal election Opinion Polls: Priyo Bandhu Media

Priyo Bandhu Media had predicted both 2016 Assembly election and Lok Sabha 2019 election correctly. For 2021 Bengal Assembly election, in the month of November the media firm gave BJP 170 seats, TMC 90 and INC+Left alliance 31 seats. However, as per the latest poll released for the month of January 2021, Priyo Bandhu gives BJP 185 seats, an increase of 15 seats from the month of November. For TMC the poll shows a decrease of 8 seats from November, while for Left+INC alliance the poll gives 24 seats.

6. Bengal election Opinion Polls: Times Democracy

Times Democracy released its new Bengal opinion poll on 24th February. The time span for the survey was 4th Feb-18th Feb and Sample Size was 23,018. In last poll Times Democracy gave TMC 155 seats with 43.6% vote share, BJP 131 seats with 39.8% vote share and Left Congress alliance 9 seats with 12.1% vote share.

In recent poll, Times Democracy gives TMC 151 seats with 44.1% vote share, BJP 131 seats with 39.61% vote share and Left Congress 12 seats with 12.7% vote share.

7. Crowdwisdom360 Prediction Survey

The Crowdwisdom360 surveys are small sample surveys carried out regularly in each districts to estimate the result at the seat level for the assembly polls. In Bihar, our seat level accuracy was about 70%

Our survey prediction for the upcoming Bengal Assembly election is in favor of BJP. As per of latest survey BJP may win 140 seats while TMC may win 134 seats. Congress+Left alliance may win 13 seats.

Methodology for Crowdwidom360 Opinion Poll: Wisdom of the crowd method (small samples). This survey is different from traditional surveys because we do not ask respondents who they are likely to vote. Instead, respondents are chosen for their understanding of the political situation and can be anyone from the crowd - it is hence called the wisdom of the crowd. A little analytics is used to remove bias. We predicted 70% of the seats accurately in Bihar with 90% of the rest ending with a margin of just 1000 votes. The sample has TMC bias which we may have corrected to a large extent but not fully. 

Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 : District Level Predictions


Purba Medinipur


Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Tamluk, Moyna, Haldi, Khejuri, Kanthi Dakshin, Kanthi Uttar

Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Panskura Paschim, Panskura Dakshin, Nandigram, Nandakumar, Mahisadal, Bhagabanpur, Ramnagar, Egra, Chandipur

Too Close to Call

Patashpur

** Nandigram, the seat which BJP was leading in our last survey TMC has taken lead in our recent survey**


Birbhum


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Bolpur, Nanoor, Labpur,Naihati and Murarai

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Dubrajpur, Suri, Sainthia, Mayureshpur, Rampurhat and Dubrajpur

Assembly Seats that INC+Left is likely to win

Hansan

** INC+Left alliance is now ahead in Hansan which TMC was leading in our last survey**


Murshidabad


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Samserganj, Jangipur, Raghunathganj, Sagardighi, Nabagram, Khargram, Bharatpur, Rejinagar, Hariharpara, Nowda

Assembly Seats that Left-INC is likely to win

Farakka, Lalgola, Bhagawangola, Raninagar, Kandi, Beldanga, Baharampur

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Murshidabad

** BJP may open its account in Murshidabad district while TMC is set to increase its tally from our last survey. In our latest survey TMC leads in Sagardighi which was too close in our last survey. Left+Congress leads in 6 seats 1 less than our previous survey. TMC is now leading in Nabagram.**


South 24 Parganas


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Bhangore, Kasba, Maheshtala, Budge Budge, Metiabruz 

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Sonarpur South, Behala East, Behala West, Tollyganj, Sonarpur Dakshin

Assembly Seats that Left+TMC is likely to win

Jadavpur

** In our last survey, Tollyganj was a close fight but in our recent survey BJP is ahead of TMC.**


Nadia


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Karimpur, Palashipara, Nakashipara and Chapra

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Krishnanagar Uttar, Krishnanagar Dakshin, Tehatta and Nabadwip

Assembly Seats that Left+Congress is likely to win

Kaliganj

** In our last survey, TMC was ahead in 6 seat, however, in our latest survey BJP seems to be ahead in Tehatta and INC+Congress in Kaliganj**


Hooghly District


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Jangipara, Tarakeswar, Khanakul

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Dhanekhali, Pursurah, Goghat, Arambagh

**In our last survey Arambagh was a close fight between TMC and BJP, in our recent survey it falls towards BJP.**


Burdwan


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Khandaghosh, Bardhaman Dakshin, Raina, Monteswar, Bhatar, Purbasthali Dakshin, Ketugram, Mangalkot, Ausgram, Kulti, Barbani

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Jamalpur, Kalna, Memari, Bardhaman Uttar, Purbasthali Uttar, Katwa, Galsi, Pandabeswar, Durgapur Purba, Durgapur Paschim, Raniganj, Asansol Dakshin, Asansol Uttar

Assembly Seats that INC Left is likely to win

Jamuria

** In our last survey Katwa, Jamuria, Memari Kulti and Barbani had a close fight. In this survey, conducted this month, Katwa, Memari falls to BJP while Kulti and Barbani fall to TMC. Jamuria is the lone seat when Left Congress alliance can win. BJP also looks to be ahead in Galsi seat where TMC was ahead in our last survey.**

 

Maldah


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Malatipur

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Habibpur, Gazole, Manickchak, Maldaha, Englishbazaar, Baishnabnagar

Assembly Seats that Left-INC are likely to win

Chanchal, Harishchandrapur, Sujapur

 


North 24 Parganas


Assembly Constituencies that TMC is likely to win

Baduria, Swarupnagar, Deganga, Haroa, Minakhan, Basirhat North, Sandeshkhali, Madhyamgram, Dum Dum North, Khardaha, Panihati,Amdanga, Barasat, Naihati, Kamarhati, Barangar, Bagdah, Ashoknagar

Assembly Constituencies that BJP is likely to win

Bongaon Uttar, Bongaon South, Basirhat South, Rajarhat Gopalpur, Bidhannagar, Rajarhat New Town, Dum Dum, Bijpur, Bhatpara, Jagatdal, Barrackpore, Gaighata, Habra, Hingalganj

Too Close to Call

Noapara


Kolkata District


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Entally, Ballygunge, Rashbehari, Kolkata Port

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Jorasanko, Maniktala, Shyampukur, Chowringhee


Dakshin Dinajpur


Assembly Seats that TMC is likely to win

Kushmandi, Kumarganj, Harirampur

Assembly Seats that BJP is likely to win

Balurghat, Tapan, Gangarampur


7. Bengal election Opinion Polls: NK Digital

The latest opinion poll released by NK Digital for upcoming Bengal election show an easy win for ruling TMC. As per the poll, TMC may win 192 seats, BJP may win 69 seats and Left Congress alliance may win only 30 seats.

Bengal election Opinion Polls: Ankit Sharma Opinon Poll

Ankit Sharma, Political analyst and pollster conducted a survey in Bengal along with team. The survey covered 179 Assemblies from 32 Lok Sabha Seats. The sample size of the survey was 9791. The findings of the poll show BJP dethroning TMC from the throne of Bengal. As per the polls BJP may win 161 seats while TMC may win 120 seats. Left+TMC alliance may win just 13 seats. The survey covers more than 9000 respondents


Predict: Will TMC win Majority in Bengal? Click on the Link  and mark your prediction



West Bengal Election 2021 Polling and Result Date

West Bengal Assembly election will be conducted in 8 phases starting from 27th March. Result will be declared on May 2nd.

Here is the break out of election dates district wise:

(1) 27th March: 2020 District of Purulia, Some assemblies Bankura 1, Jhargram, Some assemblies of Medinipur :  30 Constituencies -

(2) 1st April:  Bankura 2 , Medinipur 2, South 24 Pargana 1: 30 Constituencies 

(3) 6 April:  Howrah 1 , Hooghly 1 and South 24 Pargana 2:  31 Constituencies

(4) 10 April: Howrah 2 , Hooghly 2 , South 24 Pargana 3 , Alipurduar , Cooch Behar : 44 Constituencies

(5) 17 April: North 24 Pargana, Nadia1, Purba Bardaman1, Darjeeling , Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri: 45 Constituencies

(6)  22nd April: North 24 Pargana 2, Nadia 2,Purba Bardaman,Uttar Dinajpur : 43 Constituencies

7) 26 April: Malda 1, Murshidabad 1, Paschim Bardaman, Kolkata  South, Dakshin Dinajpur: 36 Constituencies

(8) 29th April: Malda 2, Murshidabad 2, Bhirbhum, Kolkata North: 35 Constituencies

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