Bihar Exit Polls 2020 have been released today. We are listing and analysing all the Exit Polls as they are released. Happy Reading!
India Today Aaj Tak Axis Poll
MGB 150
NDA 080
MGB - 118-138
NDA - 91-117
BJP – JDU+ 55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others 8 ± 4 Seats
Axis Poll - Which issue mattered most?
Development - 42%
Unemployment - 30%
Inflation - 11%
PM Modi - 3%
Political Party - 3%
Chintamani Exit Poll
NDA: 120-127
MGB: 71-81
LJP: 12-23
Others: 19-27
MGB - 120
NDA - 116
Crowdwisdom360 Opinion Poll for Seat Level Picture (Read Detailed Predictions here)
Gaya District
In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 4
In 2020, it could end NDA-5, RJD+5
Banka District
In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 1
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 1
Patna District
It was 8-5 in favor of NDA in 2015, Patna District is likely to end 9-5 in favor of RJD+ in 2020
Nalanda District
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 1
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4
Paschim Champaran
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 2
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 6, RJD+ to win 3
Muzaffarpur
In 2015, NDA won 3, RJD+ won 6
In 2020, NDA 6, RJD+4
Samastipur
In 2015, NDA won 6, RJD+ won 4
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 5, RJD+ to win 5, RJD+ could end up with more
Assuming RJD bias in our poll, NDA should end 4 seats and RJD+ with 6 seats
Araria
In 2015, NDA won 4, RJD+ won 2
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 1, RJD+ to win 5
Madhubani District
In 2015, it was RJD+ 5, NDA 4 and Others 1
In 2010, it looks like 5-5 for both the alliances but quite volatile
Siwan District
In 2015, NDA won 5, RJD+ won 3
In 2020, NDA is predicted to win 3, RJD+ to win 4
Vaishali District
2015, NDA - 3, RJD+ 4
2020, NDA- 1, RJD+ 6
Darbhanga District
2015, NDA - 6, RJD+ 4
2020, NDA- 4, RJD+ 6
12 Districts
2015, NDA - 60, RJD+ 41
2020, NDA- 47, RJD+ 58
Extrapolating to all Seats,
2015, NDA - 125, RJD+ 110
2020, NDA- 100-115, RJD+ 115 to 130
Data collected by us is biased in favor of RJD+, so the gap between the two alliances could be lower than this.
Shashi Singh Phase 1 Update
NDA- 27 ± 04
UPA- 43 ± 04
LJP- 02 ± 01
BSP- 01 ± 01
IND- 01 ± 01
Shashi Singh Phase 2 Update
NDA- 34 Confirmed, 22 Close
UPA- 27 Confirmed, 26 Close seats
LJP - 4
IND- 5
Shashi Singh Phase 3 Update
NDA- 22 Confirmed, 32 Close
UPA- 19 Confirmed, 37 Close seats
LJP: 3
Others: 2
Phase 1+2+3
NDA - 83 Confirmed + 55(Close Contest)
UPA- 89 Confirmed + 63 (Close Contest)
LJP: 9
Others: 8
Upasana Singh - BJP Seat Predictions Only
She Predicts BJP will win 55 to 65 seats in Bihar, may be more if some close seats go in their favour. Here is her seat by seat analysis
Analysis of Bias in Exit Polls carried out in the last one year
We have taken exit polls of assembly elections in the last 12 months and bias towards NDA/BJP
Axis has a negative bias towards BJP of -6.5%. What this means is, BJP/NDA scores 6.5% more than what Axis Predicts. On the other extreme, Ipsos over predicts BJP/NDA seat forecast by 121%. Both Jan ki Baat and CVoter also have delivered forecasts that favour the BJP but not in line with results.
Let us now look at the track record of Exit Poll companies in the last few elections in Bihar
Here is a rating of Exit Polling Companies in the last two assembly elections and Lok Sabh elections (2010, 2014, 2015, 2019) in Bihar
Bihar Exit Polls 2020: Summary for last 4 elections
2010 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Elections Exit Polls
In the 2010 election, the results were as follows
NDA: 206 seats
RJD+: 25 Seats
CSDS was closest to the mark with 193 seats for NDA.
1. IBN Week CSDS : 193 seats for NDA
Star Nielsen: 148 for NDA
Sadhana CVoter: 147 for NDA
2014 Bihar Lok Sabha Elections Exit Polls
In the 2014 Lok Sabha Election, the results were as follows
NDA: 31
JD(U): 2
RJD+: 7
Some exit polls were accurate
1. India TV Cvoter: 29 seats for NDA
TimesNow ORG: 28 seats for NDA
ABP Nielsen: 28 seats for NDA
NDTV Hansa: 22 seats for NDA
IBN CSDS: 24 seats for NDA
Headlines Today Cicero: 20 seats for NDA
The most accurate ocurate exit pollster was CVoter and Today's Chanakya (We are unable to trace their Bihar election and our estimate of accuracy for Today's Chankya in 2014 is based purely on memory)
2015 Vidhan Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls
In the 2015 Assembly Elections in Bihar, the results were as follows
MGB Alliance: 178 Seats
NDA Alliance: 58 Seats
Only one Exit poll got it right
1. IBN Axis: 176 seats for MGB
ABP Nielsen: 130 seats for MGB
India Today Cicero: 117 seats for MGB
NDTV Hansa: 110 seats for MGB
India TV TimesNow CVoter: 122 seats for MGB
News 24: Today's Chanakya: 83 seats for MGB
2019 Lok Sabha Election in Bihar Exit Polls
In the 2019 Lok Sabha election in Bihar, the results were as follows
NDA: 39 Seats
UPA: 1 Seat
Exit Polls were quite accurate
1. India Today Axis MyIndia: 39 seats for NDA
TimesNow VMR: 30 seats for NDA
ABP Nielsen: 35 seats for NDA
Republic TV CVoter: 33 seats for NDA
Republic TV Jan Ki Baat: 30 seats for NDA
Newsnation: 30 seats for NDA
Chintamani 5 Dots: 32 seats for NDA
In sum, Exit Polls have been more accurate predicting Lok Sabha elections than Assembly elections. However, even in Exit Polls, atleast one pollster has come close to the result. Axis so far has the best track record across all pollsters.