The Presidential debate 2020: Does it matter?

Blogs

The Presidential debate 2020: Does it matter?

29 Sep 2020
The Presidential debate 2020: Does it matter?
profile_avatar
Crowdwisdom360
57

The Presidential debate 2020: Does it matter? The first Presidential debates between Joe Biden and President Trump will air live at 9 pm ET tonight. Fox News host Chris Wallace will moderate the event at Cleveland’s Health Education Campus organised by the commission on presidential debates

A total of 6 topics will be debated by the two presidential candidates

  • The Trump and Biden records
  • The Supreme Court
  • The coronavirus
  • The economy
  • Electoral integrity
  • Race and violence in our citie

The Presidential debate 2020:Who is likely to win the debate?

Oddschecker

Joe Biden: -275

Donald Trump: +200

Biden to win but 65% of the bets are on Donald Trump winning.

William Hill (UK)

Joe Biden: 4/11

Donald Trump: 2

It appears, betting markets are predicting Biden will win the debate.

Read our Coverage of the Betting Odds, Prediction Market and Polls Updated Daily

Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton debate in 2016 - Hofstra University

Swing States

National

  • YouGov poll found that 57% of Americans declared Clinton the winner, while 30% declared Trump the winner.
  • A Fox News poll shows that 61% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 21% said Trump did.
  • An ABC News/Washington Post poll shows that 53% of respondents thought that Clinton won the debate while 18% said Trump did.

So while Hillary Clinton managed substantial leads soon after the first debate. She was unable to carry forward that lead on election day.

Past Presidential Debates Impacts on Polls, Presidents after First Term

Presidential debates are considered a last opportunity for the candidates to acquire support, votes, and improve in the national polls. However, the effect of polls on previous U.S. Presidential elections state otherwise. 

If we analyze the pre-debate polls and the results of previous presidential elections at the end of the incumbent president’s first term, we can see that the debate has a very minimal effect on the polls. 

In the 1992 election, at the end of George H.W. Bush’s term, national polls before the presidential debates revealed that his opponent Bill Clinton led at approximately 39%, with Bush at 33%. Both candidates improved at a constant rate after the presidential debates, but very insignificantly. Clinton was still able to win the presidency, just as the pre-debate poll had depicted. 

In the 1996 election, at the end of Bill Clinton’s first term, national polls before the presidential debates revealed that he led at approximately 48%, while his opponent Robert Dole at 39%. Both candidates again improved at a constant rate after the presidential debates, with Dole improving slightly more than Clinton. However, Clinton was still able to win the presidency, and serve his second term, just as the pre-debate polls revealed. 

In the 2004 election, at the end of George W. Bush’s term, national polls before the presidential debates revealed that he led at approximately 48%, while his opponent John Kerry was placed at 44%. Both candidates again improved at a constant rate after the presidential debates. Bush was able to win the presidency, just as the pre-debate poll had depicted. 

In the 2012 election, at the end of Barack Obama’s term, national polls before the presidential debates revealed that he led at approximately 49%, while his opponent Mitt Romney was placed at 46%. Both candidates once again improved at a constant rate after the presidential debates, but Obama improved slightly more than Romney. Obama was able to win the presidency, just as the pre-debate poll had shown. 

The pre-debate polls of the past presidencies and the election results after presidents’ first terms emphasize that the national polls and support for the candidates change very minimally after the debates. Both candidates tend to improve at constant rates, and the candidate with less votes in the pre-debate poll has never surpassed the leading nominee.

It is clear that the first of the 3 debates usually does not tell us who will win the election. In particular when a President is seeking re-election. Most voters have had 4 years to have clear opinions about the incumbent

The first vice presidential debate between vice president Mike Pence and Kamala Harris will be at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

Rewards
Redeemable coins
0

Redeem Coins
$ 5 or equivalent
20000 coins
My Profile
Purchase History
No purchase history available
OK
Wallet History
Available Coins

4050

You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
- 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
You won the World Cup prediction game.
Game . 16 July 2019
+ 20000
Notifications
Redeem Coins
Redeemable Coins Available
0
Note : Only Coins which you earn
can be redeemed. Purchased or
Bonus Coins cannot be
redeemed.

Coins will be redeemed in 2
working days
Redeem History
Redeemable Coins Available

0500

Redeemed Points
600
01 August
05:00 PM
Redeemed Points
600
01 August
05:00 PM