The last date of voting for United States Presidential Election 2020 is on Tuesday. So far, 91 million Americans have already voted with abother 60 to 70 million expected to vote by Tuesday. The results are likely to be known by Tuesday evening though the large number of absentee ballots could mean that counting could take a much longer time.
Yesterday, we offered an analaysis on why Joe Biden could win the 2020 election, today we want to explore why we think Donald Trump could win the 2020 election
1. It is the economy stupid!
While it is true that millions of Americans lost their jobs due to the COVID pandemic, most Americans still rate Donald Trump better than Joe Biden on the economy. When asked if they were better off than 4 years ago, a majority of Americans answered 'Yes' . In the meanwhile, the American economy outperformed most of the western world in the last 3 years and recovered the fastest during the COVID pandemic.
2. Donald Trump ran a better Campaign than Joe Biden: The Republican operation has been busy over the last 3 months knocking doors and registering likely Republican Voters. The Democrats on the other hand did not knock doors (due to the Pandemic) or fund operations that would mobilise more voters. Not just that, in the final weeks of the campaign, Donald Trump was in every small town and city talking to voters while Joe Biden was addressing empty chairs and taking breaks in between the Campaign.
This is most reflected in the early voter turnout. While more Republicans than Democrats planned to vote on Tuesday, the Trump campaign has almost matched the Biden campaign in most states in mobilising early voters.
In Florida, the GOP was ahead by 0.3%, in North Carolina, The Democrats were ahead by just 1.7% with many Republicans yet to vote. In Wisconsin, the Democrats were ahead by just 1.7%.
3. Trump progresses amongst Latinos and black voters
While Trump may be losing some Suburban and Senior voters, he has compensated somewhat by winning many more Latino and Black Voters. This has led to Obama campaigning aggressively to stem the losses amongst black voters. Also, Black voters donot appear to be sufficiently motivated to turnout to vote in this election given some of Joe Biden's comments.
4. Biden may be a good guy but is he Presidential?
While most voters may be invested emotionally in Biden or Trump, many voters are more pragmatic. Donald Trump has his disadvantages but forgetfulness is not one of them. While Biden performed well during the debates, he was often caught caught saying bizarre things during the campaign that gave the impression he was not sure about what he was talking about. This may been impacting last minute deciders who hardly get to see Joe Biden during the campaign and often run into videos of him being incoherent.
5. Polls are Tightening in favor of Donald Trump
At fag end of the election, most polls show late deciders breaking in favour of Donald Trump. In the battleground polls, on October 13th, Biden led Biden by 5 points in the battleground polls, two weeks later, the gap is down to 3.4. It would have been even lesser if not for a bizarre ABC Poll that put Biden ahead by 17 points in Wisconsin. In Florida, 2 out of the last 7 polls show Trump ahead, it was the same in 2016 and he won that State comfortably. In Pennsylvania, 1 out othe last 7 polls shown Trump ahead, it was the same in 2016. Most importantly, Trafalgar Polls is clearly indicating that President Trump will win again.
A better economy, a superior voter turnout machine, aggressive camapaigning, better voter outreach and just being more presidential have enabled Donald Trump to be in a better position to win the 2020 election. The turnout on Tuesday will matter and should the Democrats somehow to a better job, Trump could still lose but as things stand today, Trump is in a better place than Biden.