UK Opinion Polls 2020: Labour catches up but Starmer has a Youth Problem

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UK Opinion Polls 2020: Labour catches up but Starmer has a Youth Problem

07 Dec 2020
UK Opinion Polls 2020: Labour catches up but Starmer has a Youth Problem
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The latest UK opinion polls show the gap between the Labour party and the Conservative party is within the margin of error. Over the last 12 months, the Labour party has almost covered a 12 point gap with the Tories

UK Opinion Poll Summary and Analysis

Where did Labour gain over the last 1 month and last one year? Savanta Comres Poll

Amongst those who are older than 54 years of age - The gap between Labour and the Conservatives has fallen to 23% points, down from 27% a month ago and 35% during the General election of 2019.

Amongst those who are between 35 and 54 years of age - Labour is ahead by 9% points, this has increased from 4% points a month ago. Labour was behind Conservative party by 10% points amongst these voters in the General election 2019.

Amongst those who are below 35, Labour is head by 26% points, this is down from 33% a month ago. 

A lot of the gains for Labour are coming from Liberal party voters and those who did not vote in the 2019 election. 

Labour's fortunes changed after the election of Keir Starmer as the leader of the Labour Party. Most Polls showed Conservatives with a 15 to 20 point lead until Mr. Starmer's election in April. Labour has gained some 12 points since then. Most of the gains have occurred amongst those older than 34 years of age. Mr. Starmer has taken a more non-confrontist approach to politics in the UK with the aim of garnering voters who get turned off by extremist talk. 

Google Trends suggests that Mr. Starmer maintains a lower profile than Jeremy Corbyn but appears to have not anatagonized any voters the way Mr. Corbyn had done over his tenure. 

UK Opinion Poll Summary: Starmer's youth problem?

While the labour party has gained amongst older voters, there is some initial evidence of struggles amongst younger voters. When it comes to the leadership battle, amongst those who are between 18 and 24, Keir Starmer is ahead of Boris Johnson by a massive 21 points in the latest YouGov survey. However, a couple of months ago, a YouGov survey showed Starmer ahead by 33 points. This is mirrored in the Savanta ComRes poll that we reported in the previous sections that shows that the gap between the two parties has reduced amongst younger voters. 

Whether this is linked to the clash with the Young Labour National Committee is difficult to guage. Jess Barnard who heads the Youth wing said that the officials from party head office had demanded the removal of a statement criticising Sir Keir's suspension of Mr Corbyn from the parliamentary party. Mr. Corbyn's suspension had been revoked in November

UK Politics Buzz

Boris Johnson will resume talks to close a Trade deal with the EU 24 days before the no deal deadline.

A new analysis predicts a bleak economy for the UK over the next few years. While such predictions are usually not very accurate, Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak have a lot of work on their hands to get the economy going. 

Keir Starmer has isolated himself after a staff member tested positive to the coronavirus

Muslim members of the Labour Party have urged the return of David Abraham's donations to the Labour Party. David Abraham is accused of being an Islamaphobic. 

 

 

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