When will Donald Trump concede? There is no sign at all that President Trump will concede anytime soon. So, let us look at the status of recounts and lawsuits and predict when the President is likely to concede the election. A legal advisor to the Trump campaign believes that all the legal challenges will end by the last week of November
Prediction: The final prediction for President Trump to concede was the 24th of November 2020. With the GSA cooperating with Joe Biden from the 23rd, one could say they have conceded to Joe Biden for the moment. The legal processes will continue.
The State was called for Joe Biden by Fox News and AP controversially in the early days after the election while Decision HQ called the state on the 11th of November. Most other networks called the state over the 12th and 13th of November after Joe Biden was leading by more than 11000 votes with 10300 votes left to be counted.
The Trump Campaign filed a sharpie-gate case which is currently being heard in court. The case was quite poorly argued by Trump lawyers and is unlikely to make any headway. Read the thread here. The State Republicans have asked for a recount which is not necessary given the margin. Read the legal perspective here
As things stand today, it almost impossible for Trump to win these 11 electoral votes.
Networks called the state on the 13th of November when Joe Biden was ahead by 15000 votes. An automatic recount was triggered and hand recounting which commenced on Thursday is likely to be completed by 20th of November. So far Donald Trump has gained about 800 votes, counting is likely to be completed by the evening of 18th November with some large counties having already completed the recount. Should there be NO significant change in the tallies, these 16 votes will add to Joe Biden's tally and take him closer to the winning mark without any legal challenges.
Update (20th November): Georgia has certified its results on the 20th of November
Joe Biden is ahead by 147000 votes here. The Trump campaign has filed a few lawsuits here. A key lawsuit is asking for a delay in certification of Michigan’s election results for the following reasons
- Ballots were processed when challengers were excluded from a “meaningful opportunity” to observe
- Certification of ballots that were tabulated with “defective or malfunctioning tabulating machines or software" should be excluded
- Investigate cases where poll workers were told to “change the date” on ballots to make them appear to have arrived earlier
The chances of these cases getting through are low given the Judge's refusal to give an injunction. Read this - The Wayne County defence, Read this - About Dead Voters, A legal perspective. With many of the cases being heard now and with the aim being to cancel large number of votes, it is likely most of these cases will see resolution within a week with Trump's chances being quite low. Michigan election results are to be certified by local boards by Nov. 17 and by the state by November 23rd.
Update: All Legal Challenges in Michigan have been rejected. Republicans have confirmed that the results will be certified as scheduled
Joe Biden is ahead by 60000 votes and the secretary of state has denied a recount given the margins. The courts have not been kind to Donald Trump either with 5 legal challenges overthrown yesterday. These challenges pertain to about 8000 disputed votes. A federal court is hearing a Republican lawsuit on differential identity requirements between those who voted via absentee ballot versus those who voted physically. This should be resolved over the next week.
Pennsylvania will certify the results on 23rd November assuming no legal challenges in the Supreme Court that would delay the certification process. The Trump legal team had a poor start to the week with pared down cases, more lawyers abandoning the campaign. A Federal court in Pennsylvania threw out the Trump team's case to stop Pennsylvania from certifying the results, it is unclear if the Trump team will take this to the Supreme court. At the moment, it looks like the state will certify the results on Monday, 23rd November
Joe Biden is ahead by about 20000 votes. The state will complete the canvass of its votes after which Donald Trump can ask for a paid recount. Jill Stein spent 2 million dollars on a recount in 2016 leading to no change in results. A lawsuit is attempting to overthrown 800000 votes has been filed by the Republicans. While it is highly unlikely that these votes will be thrown out, the GOP has its best chance here with 'indefinitely confined' voters. About 215000 voters returned their absentee ballots without uploading their photo ID by claiming to be 'indefinitely confined'. Many of these votes are from democrat strong counties. However, according to targetsmart, 60% of those who voted early were older than 50 years of age. If many of these votes were to invalidated by asking voters to upload their photo IDs, Trump could still win Wisconsin.
When will Donald Trump concede? In Sum
Assuming no major issues with the Georgia recount, that state will certify the results on 20th November. With the Republicans making little headway in Michigan, that state will certify its results on the 23rd of November assuming no new legal challenges. Arizona is unlikely to face new legal challenges and will certify as scheduled on the 30th of November. Pennsylvania should ideally certify results by the 23rd but one cannot rule out supreme court interventions that may delay the schedule. Wisconsin will certify its results on 1st December even if the courts were to agree with Donald Trump on the issue of indefinitely confined voters.
The earliest Joe Biden's Presidency will be officially confirmed as the President is the 23rd of November, the latest is the 30th of November. This assumes no major issues with Georgia recount and no new legal cases in Michigan. Even if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were to be delayed, Joe Biden will have 44 more electoral votes (In comparison to Clinton) by November 30th to give him the Presidency - Officially!
When will Donald Trump concede? President Trump may not 'officially concede' after the 30th but it is less likely that Joe Biden will face issues in going ahead with the Transiton and swearing in on the 20th of January 2021