On 8th February, 2020, elections to for the Delhi Assembly election will be held and the results will be declared on 11th February. The current Delhi Assembly term will end on February 22, 2020. Here we share SWOT analysis of BJP in Delhi
PM Narendra Modi
Prime Minister Modi is still popular among the Delhi population. The PM will surely add some votes to BJP's kitty which may be more than that of 2015 Assebly election. It must be noted that in 2015, Arvind Kejriwals's AAP did campaign with a slogan "Modi for Centre Arvind Kejriwal for CM".
BJP has always had a stong organisational strength. However, this time BJP's organisation is more inclusive than it was in 2015 with adequate representations.
Citizenship Amendment Act
The entire drama behind Citizenship Amendment Act will have resonance in Delhi as some areas have presence of partition refugees settled in Delhi. Moreover, the ruckus that has been created by the opposition in the name of Student Protest may play vital role in shifting of votes towards BJP in Delhi.
Regularisation of Unauthorized Colonies
Since Arvind Kejriwal came to power in 2015 he talked about regularisation of Unauthorised colonies but never took any initiative. Recently the central governmet regularised the unauthorised colonies and on 3rd January 2020 even they gave registry papers to few of the residents.This can be a biggest move for BJP in Delhi as there are arond 13 lakhs populartion residing in these colonies. If BJP manages to get 80% of these votes, it may be in much better position in Delhi.
No CM Candidate
BJP is playing smartly with no announcement of CM candidate in a move to bridge gaps between leaders. However, AAP seems to take advantage of this move of BJP by projecting a campaingn "Arvind Kejriwal vs WHO"?
There are many factions in BJP Delhi unit. This may hurt BJP in many places.
Bjp had lost 1.9% of voteshare in 2015 assembly election as compared to 2013 assembly elections. BJP by regularizing unauthorized colonies can get votes which AAP got in 2015. BJP may also increase its voteshare among the Purvanchali voters. Manoj Tiwari, the BJP Delhi President is very much popular among them.
Anti Incumbency against AAP MLAs
Being in power for five years, AAP Delhi will be battling to overcome the anti-incumbency factor. Many AAP MLAs have been accused with corruption charges, few have left the party and many may not be able to garner the same support as they did in 2015 Assembly election. People with smart moves may encash this to their advantage.
Arvind Kejriwal Runnig Hyper Local Campaign
BJP suffers whenever camapign go hyperlocal as observed in recent Haryana and Jharkhand elections. Arvind Kejriwal already has experience running this type of campaign since 2015. BJP which still thinks on banking on Narendra Modi's face value have suffered a lot when it came to state level elections.
Performance of Congress and Other Local Parties
In 2015 Assembly election it was the Congress voteshare that transferred completely towards AAP. If Congress dips below 9% voteshare that it had won in 2015 Assembly election, Aam Aadmi Party is sure to retain power in Delhi once again. BJP chances will brighten if Congress and other local parties are able to cross 20% voteshare.
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