Here are 5 reasons why Kejriwal is looking good to win Delhi
1.The Economy has slowed down like everywhere else but not as much
Per Capita GDP has grown 38% in the last 5 years versus 120% before that (Inflation adjusted). While this appears to be a significant slowdown, this is far better than say Haryana (which has a much lower per capita) where the economy slowed down from a 5 year growth of 143% to 41%. Further, bulk of the slowdown is anyway being attributed to the Central Government. The repeated efforts and changes brought by the Central Government confirm that attribution.
2. Satisfaction Levels are high
Satisfaction with the AAP Government is quite high. An Axis survey in January 2019 (a year ago) indicated that 43% were satisfied with the AAP Government. A Lok Niti survey conducted recently indicated fully satisfied at 53%. Both these %s indicate a level perhaps closer to about 50% with dissatisfaction closer to 30 to 35%. With 80% of the fully satisfied likely to vote AAP, AAP is sitting pretty at about 40% to start with and with some conversion from rest of the voters, a 45% vote share is not inconceivable.
3. Congress Party is beginning to lose momentum in Delhi
One reason AAP performed really well in 2015 was a 15% loss in vote share for the Congress party between the 2013 and 2015 elections. Bulk of this went to the AAP as the AAP vote share went up by 25% points during the same period. Google Trends suggests that Congress party which had a lead during the Lok Sabha election (and won 4%+ more votes) is now trailing AAP. While surveys will confirm the vote share loss, it seems Congress is likely to lose half its vote share versus the 2019 Lok Sabha election. While this is higher than 2015, it may finally be only 3-4% higher.
4. BJP does not appear to be gaining the anti-incumbency vote
No data so far shows BJP doing a great job in winning the Anti-incumbency vote. There are multiple reasons for that. There is a visible slowdown in Delhi ( Real estate and other services for example) and the blame seems to be attributed to the Central Government. In Jharkhand for example, dissatisfaction with the Central Government sharply rose since May 2019. Massive losses in vote share were reported in all the 3 major state elections. Further, while BJP has repeatedly won the MCD elections, it is not a benchmark of Governance locally or nationally. The absence of a strong local leader has made the task that much harder. The only thing that could help the BJP is middle class freebies during the Lok Sabha election.
5. AAP has a lot of protection because of the scale of wins in 2015
While it is impossible for AAP to win 67 seats, it has too many seats where large swings will be needed to beat it
There are 12 Seats where 15% swing against AAP will move the seats to its opposition
There are 22 Seats where 10% swing against AAP will move the seats to its opposition
There are 10 seats where 5% swing against AAP will move the seats to its opposition
It is not inconceivable that simple anti-incumbency will move 10% away from the AAP. At that level, AAP will end with 35 Seats with Congress about 2 and BJP 33. At the moment nothing above suggests a greater than 10% swing
Overall it appears Kejriwal is looking comfortable to return to power in the election next month. There are 3 big X-Factors that could change the momentum - BJP's CM Candidate, the Central Government budget and the Manifesto of the BJP. If well presented, it could push AAP losses by more than 10% and give BJP a narrow victory. Of course, last minute scandals or scams could also play an important and decisive role in determining the election results. Should Kejriwal win Delhi, it should not surprise anyone that AAP will once again be present in elections across the country.